bamford

What may be missing at this point in the material is a definition for what "indications of a change in trend" we should be looking for. One of the characteristics is a sharp increase in volume, suggesting outside ("public") participation entering the market. In this case, the outside interests would be buying and "they," the smart money, would be selling into the demand. In early January, the typical volume was reasonably steady at about 2 million shares and there was no significant increase leading up to the 9th. I think this, coupled with the the observation that volume was beginning to increase on days with low closes and the other items mentioned by Wyckoff, suggest there is little outside buying, indicating a short-term top and not and change of trend. Buying and selling climaxes occur on each time frame in addition to major turning points. An early issue of the Ticker magazine had as the epigraph: "The Fundamental Principle of Wall Street is the Sale of Securities to the Public" (1908). So an important thing is who has the stocks. If the large interests have most of the inventory, esp. if recently purchased in an accumulation area where the public was dumping stocks, the large interests would have to be doing the selling---but there is little public demand to sell to. There is evidence of buying support 2/16 as the price approaches the accumulation zone, which is about where "Tom, Dick, and Harry" bailed out just the month before and are probably exhibiting "masterful inactivity" until "prices are high enough." In February the volume increases sharply as the index breaks out above the absorption area, and sustained high volume and mostly horizontal price movement suggests that this is probably the outside demand "they" have been waiting for to realize profits. The data under the blanked-out part of that graph for February and March looks much like the S&P 500 now, except for the sharp increase in volume. BTW, thanks for posting that chart with the portion blocked out. It made me realize that I have been looking at a different PDF file that is apparently the 1937 course and not the 1931 material posted by dbphoenix in the sticky.

Attached is a PDF of the contents of an article on "The Technical Position" written by John T. Brand (writing as "B") and published in the Magazine of Wall Street in 1916. Brand was an old tape reader and his material is much like Wyckoff's. In this article he covers several items mentioned previously in this thread. tot6.pdf

The way I look at this is that with most of the volume on the 18th occurring after the low, and the close approaching the highs of the previous several days of heavy (selling) volume, it suggests that prices are being actively bid up rather than just supported. So at this time and at this level, buying has the upper hand, and "what happens next" should indicate what the probable intent was. An example of prices just being supported would be in March on the same graph---there is no indication that prices are being bid up. This area is similar to the sketch in post #4.

I didn't see these posted anywhere so I thought I would add them here. These are links to downloads from Google Books and are probably old news, so my apologies if they are redundant. Studies in Tape Reading, 1910 edition : Studies in tape reading - Google Books The 1910 edition is very much like the version originally published in the Ticker magazine articles in 1908--1909. Studies in Tape Reading, 1916 edition : Studies in tape reading - Google Books Somewhat revised from the 1910 edition, this is the version most common today. The Business of Trading in Stocks, "B" (John T. Brand), 1917 : The business of trading in stocks - Google Books This book was written by an old fellow who by 1912 had traded from the tape for 30 years. He describes his approach to managing trades with an emphasis on controlling risk, and he talks about general price behavior, but not about tape reading itself. One interesting aspect is that he said he expected to double the size of his trading account every year---this was during the time that Livermore couldn't make a living trading. Although not written by Wyckoff, it revolves around many of Wyckoff's principles. Originally published in serial form in the Magazine of Wall Street from 1912 to 1914.

motorway, that PDF reminded me of this short piece from the Magazine of Wall Street, July, 1913: "The Value of One-Eighth Point Fluctuations in Reading the Market." Most of the article was written by a reader, but the "Ed. Note" was probably by Wyckoff. OneEighthFluctuations.pdf

All of the material could not have been written by Wyckoff. The last date on the copyright page and many of the other pages is 1937, clearly after Wyckoff's time. Likewise, some of the charts, data, and narrative describe events that transpired after 1934---Wyckoff obviously could not have written that material. (The text also reads at times like an uncorrected OCR transcription.) For example, "The Basic Law of Supply and Demand," "Judging the Market," etc., (copyright 1931) sound like Wyckoff. "How to Proceed with the Study..." (copyright 1937) does not. Other pages seem to be mixed, suggesting they were revised.