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TheDude

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheDude

  1. TheDude
    Im going to buy it and trade it. I think of it this way: Not all of these off the shelf systems and magic black boxes can be rubbish. I mean 100's and 100's have been peddled over the years. At least one of them must work. OK it's a bit like buying a lottery ticket - but it's friday, and Im feeling lucky.
  2. TheDude
    This is the issue folks - You guys seem to insist on calling *anything* TA. Even fundamental info is now TA to you folk. DBP makes me laugh when he now claims reading order flow off a DOM is now also TA. I think he may be losing the credibility he spent so long building up pretty quickly saying things like this. This I believe is simply because most here insist they must be right, so they move the goal posts to include *everything* to come under their umbrella of definition so they can never be called out. It's like some phoney religion or cult. Freud had a similar strategy: I'm right, and if you say I'm wrong, then that also shows I'm right as it really means you're in denial. Nice try. Please folk, do get a grip. TA is charts. TA is drawing silly lines on those charts, shapes etc. It isnt fundamental info displayed in graphic format etc. If I read an e-mail with some guys opinion of the markets, that isnt TA. This post is not TA. I can only assume the only reason some here want 'everything' to be included as TA is because they have realised TA doesnt work, so rather than slaughter their sacred cow, they move to something else, include that as TA so as not to lose face or something. No wonder success eludes most here.
  3. TheDude
    This guy has something to say about charts too (jest....)
  4. TheDude
    Take a look - traders at work. Note they have some charts in the background, but they are not the focal point of what they are looking at.....
  5. TheDude
    Well, maybe I'm a bit tiered (it was a long, long weekend), but your first point seems to kind of agree with my original hypotheses (if I havent misunderstood you): Yes price will bounce off of these random MA's, just as they will off a randomly drawn line, or react to some random indicator with a random setting. Fooled by randomness. Remember?? As for the last point, well this is where these TA debates fall over. You have one camp who believe everything in the known universe is TA, and you have others (such as myself) who refer to TA as the old time based bars, volume at the bottom, time on the x axis, price on the y, and an array of useless stuff overlay on top to 'predict' the future. For day trading, I find the traditional TA next to useless. Im sure some find value in it. Good for them. I still have some use for it in position trading though.
  6. TheDude
    It was I Zdo. I said that. DBP - you seem to look at everything as either TA or FA. There are other ways of looking at the market, especially for a day trader.
  7. TheDude
    It's like this: Jimmy works at a hedge fund. He has a credit limit of almost $400,000,000. The hedge fund he works for has $billion AUM. Jimmy trades mostly ES, sometimes TY, now and then 6E. Jimmy doesnt use a chart. He doesnt need to. Jimmy can push the market round a few ticks/points as he wishes. Jimmy is in constant contact with his other ex-colleagues at a few banks and other funds dotted round mid-town Manhattan. Now - how can your chart, with all its lines, channels, stochastics etc tell me when Jimmy is about to enter the market? Can Gann lines help? Fibonacci? Jimmy's birthday happens to be on a Fibonacci number, but he tells me thats just a coincidence. You see, I want to be in the market when Jimmy decides to do so. But as Jimmy doesnt use a chart, I guess a chart wont be able to tell me either. And the only defence you have against Jimmy and his millions, and his mood, is some silly line youve superimposed on a chart that you, and only you happen to believe in. DBP's trendline is 2 points away as he connected the lower low that you missed. WBR's trend line is another point below that - for what ever reason he has - looking at another time frame etc..... Ever wondered why that breakout didnt continue? TA is little more than the human desire to try and make order out of seeming chaos. [Folks - Im talking of 'traditional' TA here. Edwards & McGee. Trendlines, shapes, silly patters, etc. Please folks, lets have a proper conversation. None of these weasel words like 'any data on my screen is TA' - because thats just silly]
  8. TheDude
    So, If open a chart on bigchart.com and select 'earnings, splits, dividend payments' and other fundamental events, and trade based on those events, then I'm using TA am I? After all, I'm basing those assumptions on info from a chart right? OK, I could have got the same info from else where - like newspapers, websites etc. And If I compare earnings against price change, then thats also TA is it, because I can see the info on a chart. Maybe the chart is just the easiest and convenient method for me to collect the data and make comparisons. As DBP eludes to - the idea is to profit from asymmetrical order flow. That ability is going to depend on your ability to analyse that. I'm primarily an intraday trader. I do trade some positions on day time frames etc. In my opinon - if its worth anything, I think TA and charts are losing their value on an intraday basis. Still useful on longer time frames. You've got to be a lot smarter - partly due to HFT slamming markets in a burst, then withdrawing. It requires moving out to longer time frames and being willing to take more heat. That means youve got to see more reward - but in the day time frame, moving out to a larger fractal means you have less time for the market to move to decent profit, and less opportunities. whats a dude to do??
  9. TheDude
    Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm, superstition and TA. —Adam Smith (BTW - he was talking about my definition of TA, not yours!!)
  10. TheDude
    You're no damn fun are you. That DBPhoenix is also too damn clever. :crap: Our definitions of TA differ. Thats cool. By your definition, I also use TA. By my definition, I don't. I'd define TA as the classic Edwards & McGee, Pring and other similar stuff: shapes, patterns, lines, and other stuff that is a derivavtive of the trinity of price, time and volume.
  11. TheDude
    " luckily, TA has ‘slightly’ better accuracy than 1 in 43200 (seconds) … " Prove it please...................................
  12. TheDude
    Undoubtedly a well meaning article. I like to think of TA in the following way: Even a stopped clock is right twice a day This is why you can put any MA on any chart, and it will seem to be support/resistance a few times This is why you can put any indicator on any chart, and it will seem to pick bottoms/tops a few times This is why you can draw a horizontal line along any matching lows/highs on any chart, and it will seem to be support/resistance a few times further out. If TA concepts were valid, they would be able to detect every high/low. We all know they cant. Therefore, the ones they do detect are perhaps more a question of luck than usefulness. Technical Analyst's are Fooled by Randomness more than they care to believe
  13. TheDude
    Some great thoughts in what should steer peoples decisions. I wished every American would think along these lines. Lets remember some key points: The republicans refused to sign the Kyoto agreement and refuse to acknowledge global warming. Such ideas are bad for the oil industry, and bad for global weather changes. More republicans = more hurricane sandy type events. Mitt the twit returned from a 'world tour' a few months back. He visited 7 countries including the UK and Israel. In each country, he managed to put his foot in his mouth and insult just about every world leader or its citizens with his Bush style gaffs. The world does not like, or trust Mitt the twit. A country with a fool for president reflects badly on it's business' and citizens. As for who will do best for the country, well I think you just need to look at how the republicans left the country the last time, and why Obama got in in the first place - four short years ago. Mitt the twit is afterall a venture capitalist by trade. He specializes in acquiring things, then breaking them up for profit. Profit, profit, profit. Of course I'm not an anti capitalist, but on the economy and the welfare of it's people, you have to look beyond the P&L of the economy. Anyway. More bayonets and horses....
  14. TheDude
    Youve got to put this in context... Victor is/was an options trader. Options trading is very maths orientated. For example, an options delta is *supposed* to give you a % of the option expiring ITM. So, if you compare an options Gamma and Delta, you may come up with some kind of figure that will tell you if the option is over/under priced against the underlying. Take Victor with a pinch of salt. He doesnt believe in the idea of trends apparently. Thats why he blows up all the time. The trends dont revert in time (hahahaha). Maybe he doesnt believe in global macro differences either? Trying to come up with a probability on an out right position is a fools errand if you're considering a single trade. Remember the law of large numbers. As for the horse racing, remember the bookie places his odds against his risk exposure. Nothing to do with what horse he thinks will win - thats the punters game. It's also why you should never bet on the favourite - the pay out will be lowest, and just like trading, the crowd is usually wrong. The bookie has an edge irrespective of what horse comes in.
  15. TheDude
    Define a 'damn good living' please? a nice house, 4 houses round the globe. 2 cars, 20 cars? You may have read the story in the papers about a trader who retired recently at 41 with 420 million. Apparently, despite his wealth, mansions around the world etc, he still wasnt happy.
  16. TheDude
    Sorry Steve, I dont quite get what your driving at - youre saying you've got to understand the risks right? I would have thought that was gratis. I mean you're unlikely to have $100m if you dont have a pretty good awareness of risk right?
  17. TheDude
    Generally yes - go to higher time frames which is where the real money is to be made anyway. Also diversification. I dont mean stocks, bonds, cash, gold, etc, I mean if you want to go long oil, you buy futures, you buy forwards, you buy swaps, you buy calls, you sell puts, you buy shares in BP, Shell, Total, you trade anything that will give you exposure to rising oil prices with a good correlation. Of course it's a bit more planned out than slamming any market you can think of - you need to think of correlations, volatility, liquidity, open interest, average daily volumes, etc. Its surprising how much extra alpha you can generate over the course of a year with careful execution.
  18. TheDude
    I deleted the post as I didnt want the thread to go off on a tangent... but yes I was a market maker. I had a position limit, but I never ever came across the idea of 2-3% until I became a retail trader. The 2% comes from asset management where one has a hugely diversified portfolio - so its not even related to day trading When consistent, 2-3 % is still foolish though. One needs discipline to think for themselves rather than be gullible and do what ever one reads. Discipline is so much more than the ability to follow a 'trading plan'. I think the myth of TA 'pattrens' leads people to think they have discipline issues because in hindsight they may see a trade wasnt ideal, but failed to in the heat of the moment. The fact is, they are only human, and not necessarily deficient in discipline. Rather its TA/ a false base that is their problem. I know a few half good traders who do far too much coke, and drink way too much. I wouldnt exactly say they are well disciplined, yet they make good coin consistently.
  19. TheDude
    Republicans are too stupid to trade well. Democrats are too lazy to learn. Jews are too mean to put on size Muslims blow up. Buddhists are indifferent about everything. Christians...well I think the Bible says Jacob stored corn on seeing a coming drought - so I guess Christians win.
  20. TheDude
    why i cant i delete posts?
  21. TheDude
    Seeing as the 1st post was related to FX, I'd suggest that if you really want to trade FX, do it with futures. Unless you have a serious account, you'll be trading against the broker in retail FX, not the market. It's a joke. Anyone who thinks they are trading in the real FX market is kidding themselves - or they are trading with moronic leverage - or they are have a multi million pound account. Not only that, all you have is price. No volume, no flow, just a broker posting a quote which will depend on your position anyway. Most retail traders always overlook how much commission and spread hurt their account. Its a key reason most lose. If your giving up 1-2 ticks a side because the broker is massaging your quote, you have very little edge. With futures, your money is generally safer (still - despite some frauds we all know about), the market is centralized meaning it's fairer and you have more trade information to utilize.
  22. TheDude
    Im hardly an academic, but I go with this. I dont trade fx either, but consider this: A govt wants to control its currency for fiscal reasons. It doesnt want its currency to be > x. It will therefore sell when its currency reaches x. Same with a pension fund that thinks xyz stock is undervalued at x. They will keep buying near x until they reach their quota. Same with an oil refinery when crude reaches x. Steve kinda eludes to this. It's the participants who are willing to trade at levels. Given the market is made of people/organisations - who do have a memory, and more importantly, a purpose. Sometimes they cant hold their level though. Nothing is written in stone here.
  23. TheDude
    FWIW: Try 1 of these: A. Keep paper trading in sim until you can make money in your sleep with out thinking about it. This could take another 3 months +. Dont put a time limit on this. It will happen eventually. Think of this drill as similar to the ones marines do when they can de-assemble, clean and assemble their rifle blindfolded perfectly. When you feel you are there, keep doing it for another month - just to make sure. You still wont make as much money when you go live, but it will be a big help. B. Get a simpler set up. One thats really black and white. One where there is no guess work involved at all. C. Just ditch the friggin' charts and all this 'price set up/price action/price pattern' stuff. Learn to read the order book. Just sit and watch for a month or 2. You will start to see the patterns and tricks that are played. Then start paper trading from your observations. Trade US 10yr notes, while watching 30 yr bonds. If you really must, trade ES. Dont bother with FX - fine for position/swing trading, not so great for true day trading. All of these will seem like a lot more time & work. However it will save you time and work in the long run. Option C will feel like you will be throwing away the last 8 months of effort. C will also take another 8 months until you start making money in all likely hood. This is why most cant be bothered and use charts - also why most lose.
  24. TheDude
    Ive got a buddy who uses options to trade this way. He has a very high end set up though - colo, 'need to know' news feed etc. Its called Special Situations in terms of 'category'. He does more than ok. A lot of it is automated. BTW, you may want to look at CTS T4 as a trading platform. The premium version includes a top notch real time news feed (and charts inc data for all exchanges). From memory, I think it's like 50c a side to use the platform, capped at $500 pcm. I keep meaning to set up an account to trade stocks in this way - holding for a few days until the move runs out of breath. There's always something going on in stocks on news.
  25. TheDude
    Steve - Given the levels of anxiety you seem to suffer when people question your own 'advise' that everyone has seen and read before (i.e. yet another TA based approach), I'm surprised you are giving this chap such a hard time my old cheese. May I respectfully suggest that before trying to intimidate others, you too try and produce something that some of us havent heard or seen before? Try- Something other than TA (TA is all the same old bollox really) Something other than a proprietary 'secret' like your HFT indicator or Urma Burma's 'magic' indicator Something other than '10 parables of success' and similar bed time reading. You see, the thing is my old cheese, it's not the method, but the skill in which it is applied that makes the difference. Trading is no different to any other game like golf or football. The rules are the same for everyone. There are countless books on how to improve ones game. There is no 'secret' to how to play golf, football, or the markets. Yet not everyone is a golf, football or trading 'pro', despite all one needs to know being out in the open. The difference between success and failure is inside the individual. Its determination and application. Nothing more.You cant teach that in a gazzillion of your 'Im a guru' threads. Try and be a little more mature please. Theres a good cheese.
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