TheDude

blah, blah, blah,..... So Ingot, yes there is an evil group out to get us all and turn our hard earned cash into buttons. The big question is: What are you going to do about it? Just talk? We've heard it all before. If you truly believe in this theory, you've got to stand up and do something. Just letting 'them' get away with it makes you just as guilty for letting 'them'. Please answer the following: Who are 'they'? (other than some mid ranking execs at HSBC) What are you going to do to stop them? Given the courts will do nothing to them (as 'they' control the courts according to the thesis put forward), it would seem you must take matters into your own hands. What are you going to do? Buy a gun perhaps? Tell some more folk in the hope they may do something for you? :question:

Id steer well clear of spread betting firms. Your execution costs will be much higher: wider spread and paying 'their' price, not the market price which will be a few pence/cents away from the real market. Believe me, this adds up over time. Look at Lightspeed trading. I'm thinking of opening an account with them for longer term equity investments. I dont believe there are any inactivity charges. Most brokers wont charge for financing.

If the idea that winning is harder than losing is true, then all one would have to do is buy when the 'plan' said sell and visa versa. Something tells me that if half of people tried this, they would still end up losing... Why is that? Why is this idea in the fx forum? Surely it applies to all markets? Could it be that fx trading there is less of an (soft) edge available than all other 'real' markets? Could it be something else than following some silly 'plan'? Could it be that Col B is on to something? Questions, questions, questions...... :missy:

I use Norton, and have done so for 10 years or so. I've never had a a virus, worm, trojan etc. Ever. A few tracking cookies and thats it. Mind you, I don't surf for porn half as much as you lot though :haha:

Naa - just keep it simple - I suggest Alan just adds this thread to his last thread on the Euro. No need for a new thread for every new comment on the Euro. Too many sections and sub sections make the site harder to navigate.

Very much depends where you look. ES, yes I'd agree. Bund, Bobl, no way. As soon as 10 lots print in the Bund, the other 200 or so are pulled. When this starts happening, it's usually time to hop on board....

In fairness I think it's a bit more complex than that. I'd say it's the ability to change and adapt that determines whether one will do well. The guys I speak to are definitely finding it harder. They cant read the book as well as they used to due to orders being broken up. This is more of HFT used as an execution tool by paper (eg in a T/V-WAP algo) rather than HFT being used as a strategy (stat arb, market making, etc). Thus they are changing their strategy. People who recruit traders from grads are also finding the success rate of new traders is also much lower than it was say 2,3,5 years ago. Another factor is decreasing volumes. There are less contracts to trade these days. Most exchanges are down 20% on volumes year on year. That means less opportunity/less to go around.

Considering Alan is looking at day trading (from memory), a 5 day correlation is probably a lot more useful than those I posted earlier. I've been told that correlation isnt really measured on an intraday basis - I cant think why. Using other markets as an indicator is a popular approach. The issue (for me) is often knowing which market to use and when.

The correlation between S&P 500 and USD/Yen is currently -7 over the last 180 days, 31 over the last 60 days. Generally, a correlation of ~80 is considered a stable relationship MRCI's Inter-Market Correlations The spread between the 2 seems to be widening (this chart isnt an equity spread though - which would be more useful given the different tick values)

yeah. I cant delete the posts???? :helloooo: i kinda got the wrong end of the stick....:doh:

Well I was going to say if some reason was given as to what the Yen has to do with S&P500 in terms of correlation. If there is a relationship, one would expect there to be some fundamental reason. None is given. Anyone?.... Maybe Alan thought the crowd over at Traders Lab are the same new bloods one finds at Trade2whinge. Sorry Alan, I think you'll find the participants more knowledgable here, and the mods more driven by content than feeding the populous with text book drivel....

Actually - that sounds like a pretty good strategy - Bluehorseshoe may give some good comments as I think hes into the mean reversion stuff if thats what youre doing - fading the pop caused by the 1000 lot trade - or are you going with it? The only worry is that the algos generally tend to break up their size a lot more these days - and thats only going to continue unfortunately. Look at TY and US where size gets printed a lot more than say ES (if thats what youre looking at)

I dont have stats but I have a friend who have been trading 15 years 'solo' ie his own account and now worth 100 mil+ trading futures. this is the secret though - you dont have 'retail' accounts. when you get to a level, you need leverage. you know you dont want to keep a load of margin in your account to cover exchange margins. What you do is consider your account balance as your 'ultimate stop'. You have reserve cash in a bank account else where - that used to pay interest lol. You go to a professional broker (crosslands, advantage, etc) and they will give you extra leverage and give you limits based on position size. retail traders will have a position limit determined by acct balance. eg retail trader with 50k trading at $500 intraday margin can trade 100 lots max with an agreement pro/retail may have 50k in their account but has agreed a 300 lot limit. Obviously to do this, the fcm/broker must know you well (confidence you know what youre doing), you need a good track record etc. Its in their interest of course, because the more you trade, the more they make. They (fcm) will ALWAYS look at their risk first of course. If you dont respect the extra leverage and start to lose say 50% of your account, they may well withdraw the limit or block you until you have more funds wired in. The broker provides extra leverage.Its part of their business model. This is similar to how it works in prop firms.

yes they sure will. What if every trader did that? You may get away with it if you lease a seat or take a market making agreement as a professional liquidity firm, but you'll need your broker/fcm to agree to give you access to their balance sheet (not hard if you have a good track record and low risk strategy). Think of Knight.... But hang on - you say you could do 10-20k messages a day - and if that only results in 1 trade a day, somethings wrong. Ive probably misunderstood. Tams makes a good point also.

Here's the outright. The other leg will of course look very similar... Which looks easier to make money with? Note that both these charts cover the same time span.

MP theory at work: Here's the cycle. 1. Balance, 2. Trend, 3. Excess (low volume excess in this example), 4. Correction. What happens next?.... Spreads are great for this stuff. KISS Not bad for someone who doesnt believe in TA you might say (especially on intraday charts).

Exactly. Some chick over reacted and took her life. That's sad, but you cant blame the DJ's for that, or the radio station or anyone else. To top her self over this issue only suggests she had other unresolved issues in her life. Again, sad and unfortunate, but time to move on. "Shit happens" Anon.

Yeah well thanks guru, but if you don't mind, I'll ignore your idea. Selling on that kind of news obviously wouldnt create that kind of activity the OP is seeking an answer for - it would just create selling - a puke. Being such a guru, I thought you would know that. OP: Dunno. Clearly odd activity. I think the clue here is the odd activity. Some one is playing a game. Buying or selling, I dont know. Maybe others here have better ways of analysing this?.... Generally, I try not to predict. I know Im not much good at it. I'd be grateful having seen this activity and put it on my radar/watch list knowing that something is going to happen sooner or later, and be ready for when it shows it's hand - and also ready to reverse as the initial 'move' could well be a false one given there is clear manipulation at play here. By all means listen to Steve the GURU if you like. PS - I assume youve checked against other data providers - google, bigcharts etc....

Most retail traders wont go near them because they dont think like traders - they think like gamblers. They want vol and fast money offered by ES, CL etc. As WRB says - notes & bonds are more steady, easier to figure out, less risky/whippy, and most importantly, much cheaper to trade. The bigger tick size is also an added bonus most overlook. The relationships along the yield curve are much easier to spot than the correlations between the energy or equity complex. Notes and bonds can also be spread against each other (how most institutions trade them) - even on an intraday basis. A sure 4 ticks with a 10 lot is just too boring when you can try and get 40 ticks on a coin flip in CL right? European treasuries on the other hand are quite different these days. Although Eurex products are exceptionally cheap to trade, the bund is like crystal meth on crack after a night on angel dust! it used to be 2000 up on both sides, now its like 200 up - and as soon as they are pulled or lifted, the next 4 prices are also pulled. Widow maker!

Hi Bob, I dont mean to urinate on your fire, but if you're going for a long term trend with big stops, you'll only make lunch money too - assuming you will be trading with the same amount of margin. Focus on your strengths: If you're making lunch money, you're making money. Thats a great start. Now you just need leverage. You say there is too much noise day trading. That means you're probably holding out too long. Take your trade and cover at the first sign of trouble. Or, cover 1/2 or 2/3 at the first sign of trouble. Leran to build size. I imagine you've already discovered this 2% risk is for suckers when it comes to day trading. You've got to trade size to get anywhere. You've got to scale back your size when you lose your mojo. When you know how to utilise your margin properly, you suddenly realise you only need to make a handful of ticks a day to make some serious coin. I cant express this strongly enough - if you're making small money consistently, you are just a few small steps away from taking down big numbers. Dont be scared..... If you do go down the long term trend route, then I guess its fundamental analysis for you, as these trends tend to play out on macro factors. Different skill sets. Perhaps try looking at futures spreads or options instead - if you really have had it with day trading? Good luck....

Looking at the AMP cost calculator I'd avoid if my assumptions are correct: They seem to charge for data on your trading platform. You should never have to pay for this as data should be covered in your exchange charges. They seem to charge for Eurex data in this example. You should only pay for data on an application that has no execution ability - such as a charting platform. Also, why would you feed a trading platform with a 3rd party data feed (CQG or Zenfire)? Thats just more latency. I appreciate were not HFT here, but data direct from the exchange via a trading platform will always be faster and perhaps more accurate than data thats got a few more hops in it. The last thing you need it to be hitting that offer, just to see your order join the queue. Same for cancels - when you hit pull and find you're filled. deepdiscounttrading.com may look shabby from the website, but they offer as good rates as AMP, if not better and a wider selection of platforms. They also cater for professional/high volume traders. Dont be put off by the web site. They use Crosslands as their FCM Velocity Fututres is a broker I would strike off any potential list. I had an account with them some time ago. I'd find my positions were often incorrect, I'd have contracts placed in my account I never traded, my P&L was sometimes wrong. They'd always correct the problems fairly quickly but they shouldnt have happened in the first place. Especially when they happened on more than one occasion on the same day!! Velocity staff I also found to be extremely rude, and on one occasion, dishonest (over a fairly trivial point).

When do WTI futures typically roll? is it week or a couple of days before the last trade day? Thanks

Most FCM's will roll your position over for you before the deadline unless you have specifically told them you can take delivery. Typically, they will want to see proof of this. This is for any commodity. I'd get out on the day before 1st notice day - if not before as markets can get erratic as spreaders move in to take advantage of the roll and easy basis trades. US Treasuries for example tend to roll over the week before 1st notice day. No idea about gold.