TheDude

Freud would argue that his analysis (model of conscious and subconscious) was correct. If a patient or other neurologist disagreed with his analysis, he would say that their disagreement was in fact supportive of his analysis as it was their subconscious rebelling against their conscious thoughts - as explained in his model. In other words, if someone had another idea that was different to Freuds, he would simply cast it off as actually supporting of his model. He refused to acknowledge any other point of view other than his own. This is identical to your stance of including pretty much everything other than FA as TA. You have even stated previously that quantative and statistical analysis is TA. Poppycock! It would seem that you are the one with a cross to bear as you are unable to bear any criticism of TA. Your response seems to be to include the whole remit of different types of analysis as TA - with the exception of FA. As for Steidlmayer - if he says his 'chart' is not TA, who are you to disagree with him? Don't you think it a little arrogant to suggest you know better than the author? I bet you wouldn't show the same contempt to your beloved Wyckoff!! Ok, ok, I know you will say MP is the study of price movement, so therefore is TA, but as is clear to the whole world other than you, you have got your definitions back to front. I'll spell it out for you: 1. There is price movement. 2. There are different ways to study price movement. 3. ONE of these methods is TA 4. There are OTHER ways however. 5. Some people think TA is not the best way to analyse price movement 6. Some people think TA is the best way to analyse price movement 7 ONE person believes TA is the ONLY way to study price movement and that ALL other methods are TA. This person probably failed logical reasoning and English comprehension at school :rofl: Capice?

There you go again - more 'freudianisms'. Trying to flip definitions around to suit your own cause. TA may be about the analysis of price movement - no one would dispute that. But its the analysis by using a chart. Another way would be to look at MP. Steidlmayer says he developed MP as TA had several shortfalls. I know you would say MP is TA, but if the author of MP says its something else, then Im going to back him. Afterall, Steidlmayers breakthroughs are on another parallel to a 'guru' rehashing someone elses work right! T&S would be another way to 'study' price movement. Again, you'd call T&S TA. You need to call everything TA. Everything is not TA - to everyone but yourself. And on this one I'm going with the herd for a change. I'm not disputing the value of your insights however. Just stating everything is not TA. One thing that has always tickled me however is that you seem to base your internet career on Wyckoff. I've read 2 of his books: How I Trade & Invest.... and Studies in TApe Reading by Rollo Tape or similar. Although somewhere he does mention his own charting method that seems similar to P&F charting, in both books he seems to ridicule those who use TA! I know youve read probably everything he ever published. Did he change his mind?

Thats just your definition. OK I know youre somewhat of the internet guru on analysis, but everywhere else, TA is charting. End of. Go talk to any trader anywhere in the world and ask him what TA is and he/she will more likely say charting than 'price movement'. Perhaps every trader in the world is wrong and you are right, as after all, you are the guru right? Calling any price movement TA is really in my opinion a weak get out. It makes your years of (valued) internet contributions appear rather Freudian in that what ever angle they are questioned, there is a supporting suggestion of evidence. A clever trick, but its been pulled before and people are clued up to it.

Anyhow, I see I'm banging my head against the wall here. There is proof everywhere that winners do not use charts (much). There is proof everywhere that 90% of retail traders lose, and we all know, retail traders love to use charts. If people cant see that relationship, then I cant help them. It doesnt matter if its OPM or your own. Either you can make money or you cant. Every time I post details of professionals taking down big money WITHOUT charts (Ive posted similar videos before), its followed by a barrage of excuses. This is always both surprising and fascinating to me. It's herd instinct at its best! Lemmings over the cliff edge! Happy trading folks!

Sure - its change in behaviour. BUT heres the difference - the chart shows the change in behaviour AFTER the fact. The traders in the video, and what any successful trader does is anticipate that change BEFORE or AS it is happening. If you wait for the confirmation, youre buying when theres a 50/50 chance the movers are already selling. These guys are TRADING. They are not ANALYSING which is what people with charts do. They remember levels, they remember what people are thinking, they understand how the rest of the market is positioned. They take advantage of that knowledge. They play a game. The chartist, sees those games, thinks hes spotted something, acts on it, gets his ass handed back to him, and chalks it down to not all trades are winners. This is why the losers say only risk 2%. Its because they are perpetual losers they feel they will eventually get it if they can stay in the game long enough -even though they keep making the same mistakes! They have no idea how to position size! Note what a high percentile of winners these guys have. Note who they are taking money from. Note the HF who starts the day off down, still manage to scratch at the days end. Im just trying to help folk here see the difference between what a trader does and most people who read this probably do - analyse charts and enter orders based on ANALYSIS not game play. The fact it was made in the 80's is irrelevant. You still wont see many charts today on a professional trading floor - bank, HF or prop firm. A few yes, but not in the numbers the losers use them. Theres a guy there sitting infront of the TV at home watching the news trading for crying out loud! He wins. He has knowledge. He could still do that today of course. How does one get that knowledge? THROW THE CHARTS AWAY. YOU DONT NEED THEM!

Take a look at this video if you have time. A bunch of FX traders in the 80's: 2 in a bank, 1 in an early hedge fund. Pay attention to how they trade and HOW they are deciding to buy or sell. Note 2 of them make money that day, 1 doesnt. Either way NONE of them are using charts. Some of the positions are day trades, some are position trades. Still - NOT A CHART IN SIGHT!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=hN_Qw53DKL0

I agree. One of the main problems with TA patterns, lines and so forth is that to a large extent, they are only in the eye of the beholder. If you and I were to start drawing trend lines, I imagine they may occur at roughly the same places but not exactly the same place. The same for patterns like triangles etc. If youre trying to define something, you need to be able to quantify it so you can be sure it's there or not. You cant really do that with trendlines, heads & shoulders for example. Sure you can be sure a trend exists just by looking, but to define a trend line is a fools errand as it only exists in your realm. If you then start building trade rules around something that only exists in your mind, then you are in fact trading with random prices. It's the same with patterns like head & shoulders. You define a neckline. It then bounces and you realise you were premature, and in fact its not H&S but a rectangle as it rallies to the head. You only realise it was H&S AFTER the neckline is broken. So you wait for a correction back to the neckline. It never comes of course..... Heres what my old boss used to say: 'if some one comes to me with a trade they made based on a chart, I know Im about to lose money'

The witches pentagram. It's a lesser known formation that is used by floor traders. It works 80% of the time with a risk:reward ratio of 1:3 To spot it you need to use MACD, RSI, OBV and 2 candlesticks, thus forming the 5 sides of the pentagram. It works like magic! It occurs 4 times a day in most markets. I would tell you exact details, but I paid an ex-floor trader $2000 for his e-book which comes with an NDA that you are not allowed to disclose it to anyone.

Oscar Pistorius. Just because he has no legs doesn't mean he's unarmed. When Oscar Pistorius said he wanted to be just like able bodied athletes, who knew he meant OJ Simpson? Surely Oscar Pistorious cant be the first man to wake up legless on Valentines day and shoot all over the missus while imagining she's someone else! I take it Oscar Pistorius' girlfriend bought him shoes for Valentines. Absolutely shocking news from South Africa. White man arrested for murder. What do you call a room full of dead people? An Oscar Pistorius surprise birthday party.

LOL - I love Hawaiian shirts - Ive got one like that in my collection somewhere

Fond memories of miami nighclubs a few years back ......

I think the idea is retarded. Does the best in any field waste their time playing silly games? Trading is about 1 thing - making a lot of money. It's the only way to keep score. And it's the desire to make money rather than the love of the game that people screw up. Did Tiger Woods take up golf because he loved golf, or because he wanted to be rich? Do you think playing tennis on a playstation is the same as being in the final of a grand slam tournament? Give me a freakin break! Maybe you and the other chap are really the same chap and youre about to suggest your own start up contest in order to sucker some fools in?....

I think these jokers should be up for an award... UK rag head terrorists and their bomb money.... BBC News - The joker who wanted to be a bomber It wasnt one of you lot was it? :haha:

Trading options at the open (first few minutes) is asking for trouble. Heres why: Volatility will be at it's highest at this time. That means a market making algo is going to have to work overtime to price correctly. Given the algo will be pricing other products, there becomes an issue - especially with bandwidth and messaging policies. Thus a lot of them will play it safe and quote wider, so avoiding the need to requote. Even at todays nano speeds, theres also the danger of legging risk between getting filled on their quote and then executing on the exchange/MTF. Lets say you have 10 price updates a second in AAPL. Lets say there are 4 expiries, each with 200 strikes for calls and puts. Already thats 320,000 quotes for just one stock per second, not including defined strategies for ONE exchange. Lets say there are around 6 venues where AAPL options are traded..... Many firms will honour their obligations, but they wont be competitive at these time.

Its always interesting to note that all these candlestick patterns all over the internet NEVER come with statistical backing. e.g. The Shooting Star was found to precede an immediate reversal in price of a magnitude of x y% of the time. Id suggest x would be perhaps twice the length/range/volatility of the pattern - at an attempt to exclude 'randomness' How come? Such a test would be easy to do. WRB states that context is most important. If so, could it be that in fact these patterns have absolutely zero use? If the patterns did have any use, or any significance, the variable of 'context' would be of less importance. Whats more, if making money was as simple as spotting such patterns, success in the markets would be easy, and there would be little use for money management. If context is so important, could it be that any pattern of price variables are not important? This would imply perhaps that volume, previous highs/lows, and sentiment are the only drivers worthy of consideration.

Right. Also, I saw a bar chart of various strategies and their performance, and also a correlation to the S&P500. Global Macro funds arent doing too well recently - so as a strategy, its going out of vogue. However what I thought was interesting was the high correlation to the S&P500. I cant figure out why GM is doing so poorly given the S&P is doing so well..... It shocked me, as I thought I knew every thing! :crap: :haha:

Im gunna change my icon thing.....

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Yeah - I saw that. There's another review below which seems a bit more positive though. I think it's a good book for someone who doesnt have a maths professorship at Yale. Always worth remembering there are probably more blowhards giving reviews around the internet than there are on trading websites!!

OP could try another approach to making money. Here's an idea from my Junk box: My name is Ms. Mariam Bora. The present Manager of Eco Bank here in Burkina-Faso West Africa, am in charge of Files and foreign ex-change. I have decided to contact you on a business transaction that will be very beneficial to both of us at the end during investigation and auditing in our bank, I came across a very huge sum of money belonging to a deceased Customer. MR ANDREA SCHRANNER a GERMAN and a great industrialist and a resident in Munich, who unfortunately lost his life along with his entire families in the plane, Crash of CONCORDE AIRLINE [Flight AF4590] which crashed on 25TH JULY, 2000. Since then I have made several enquiries to locate any of his extended family relatives, but all efforts proved abortive. I saw your contact from the business directory in our chamber of commerce, trade and tourism, I contact you to assist in repatriating the fund valued at US 6.5 million left behind before it gets confiscated or declared unclaimed by our Bank where this huge amount was deposited. I seek your consent to present you as the next of kin to the deceased deposited sum in our Bank so that the Funds will be re-transferred to any of your nominated Bank Account, 40% of the total Funds will be mapped out for your assistance during my visit to your country for sharing and 10% for expenses. In your return acceptance mail I shall be expecting from you below details for my records. Note: this Transaction is risk free and it will be executed under legitimate arrangement that will protect you from any breach of the law. Thanks and God bless you. 1.Your Full Names 2.Your Direct Mobile 3.Your Age >4.Your Occupation 5 .Your Country Best Regards Ms Mariam bora

After Gekkos inspiration.....

Rather than jig around with retail toys, Id suggest reading the following to get a professional approach: Derivatives: Options, Futures and other Derivative Securities by Hull Option Volatility and Pricing by Natenberg Quant/Algo/HFT: High Frequency Trading by Irene Aldridge (enough maths and stats to keep you amused) By the sounds of it, options, and derivatives in general may be more appealing to you due to the maths - especially options. Option trading is based around models more than any other trading. However, if you want to focus more on the mechanics of trade more than the relation ships of product your trading, then just start simply in equities and start with the Aldridge book. You can broaden into derivatives later if you wish.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You'd like to write a book about doing something which is so beneficial (according to some other guy) that you are unable to do it yourself? I just wonder what the rest of this book would be about.How to ignore good advice? And you want us to PM you for some further insight that you couldn't just discuss here?.... Why? But then if you're going to ignore advice i would be with you there.Other peoples' advice sucks 9 times out of ten,regardless of how nuch money/power they have..Presumably if this other guy consistently lost momey in the first 90 minutes the advice would be seen in a different light. If you feel the need to keep a journal keep one otherwise don't.And if you don't and you consistently make money then,for you,it's somebody else's cardinal rule. Bernie Madoff advised people that the best way to make money was to give it to him. George Bush advised America that the best way to end "the war on terrorism" was to invade Iraq,a country that had nothing to do with 911.Tony Blair advised the UK that the best way to prevent further Terrorist attacks was for us to give up some of our freedoms.An attack,by the way,that he directly precipitated by joining Bush in his illegal war. I'll tell you what is written in most new traders' journals.: Started off well today,but gave it all back in the afternoon by buying near the top.-didn't stick to my rules... Tried to get my money back buying a dip that turned into an all day sell off-didn't stick to my rules,.. planned to increase size on the next trade (i know) took a quick profit ,chickened out on the first tiny pullback,left a ton of money on the table..didn't stick to my rules. Decided to adapt my rules based on the fact that i'm not following them..resulted in me freezing like a rabbitt in the spotlight staring at this weeks biggest loss. Have gone back to my original plan,saw 3 setups today,too chicken to take them...didn't stick to my rules. I used to keep a journal when i was learning.I just don't need to now,so there's no such thing as a cardinal rule..that's my advice..and for lot's of people that advice sucks.That's ok though,there are no plans for a book at this moment in time. . If there was a 'like x1000' option for posts, this one would get it! Thanks Mitsubishi for saving me the time of typing the same!! Why focus on negatives anyway? It will only reinforce them.

Indeed! Speaking of long term, it may be worth considering some fundamentals. Apparently, most middle eastern 'governments' base their fiscal policy/economy on $80 a barrel. WTI will trade at a premium to middle eastern crude due to its lower sulphur content. Interesting how that just above $80 seems to be a rough area of congestion ranges.

Yep. The green line was just where I thought the POC would be before I decided to check and post the numbers. It certainly isn't magic! As you say, it's just a line, but draws the attention to a zone (as Gringo uses them) where price should slow - giving more time to put trades on/off. Sometimes it may be a barrier, sometimes not. It is an area where there has been most trade - so there will be more vested interest of defending or attacking the zone. Personally, I prefer to look at volume POC's (lower down). As this is actual contracts traded, I would have thought there would be more vested interest, rather than a level where prices may have traded a lot, but not as much business transacted.