TheDude

other than basic levels, you'll find 'skilled pros dont rely on charts as much as you may think. if they did, all the internet gurus would be busy trading making stacks, not inflating their egos on web sites. buy low, sell high, play the probabilities when momentum crops up. dont hesitate. Avoid volatile markets like fx, cl, and most index contracts. learn in slower 'boring' markets

Aww damn - you found me out. ok I admit it, I used to get coffee for some guy who was a clerk for a broker who knew a junior trader. Thats it. I spend all my time on the internet like a ghost between forum sites, wasting my life away wishing one day I could hit the big time and be like my hero - the clerk who got a job for a broker. Fact is, I dont need to post trades. Why? What do I gain? What do you gain? Admiration from a bunch of newbies who know f'k all anyway and think youre a hot shot - because they dont know any different and no one else in the REAL world does? Ho hum. This is going nowhere and Ive better things to do than back and forth with a internet 'legend' who cant make it in the REAL world. Enjoy your crown. After 3000+ posts, you sure deserve it! I'm in the real world though.... ...back to the markets (the real ones - not your paper ones) Ciao!

LOL. Whats this? Who has more likes/thanks/posts/time to waste? Battle of the forum guru? No thanks - not a mantle I wish for. As stated previously - do pay attention - I get my reward from my P&L, not postings on an internet forum. OK, I hand it to you - you're a successful paper trader. I take my hat off to you. That must be really hard. I dont have time or inclination to read all 3000+ posts of yours, but I take your word for it. Why not try and make it as a 1 lot warrior next? Maybe 2 lots if you feel brave! Given all your screenshots are of free charts off the internet, my guess is you dont even have a trading account. Besides, trading is about probabilities, not prediction. You say you get this, but clearly you dont as all your calls are based on prediction. i.e. one position in one direction. Thats fine in itself, but you demonstrate zero edge. You mistake edge for 'educated guess'.

more pots & kettles (your words not mine) you have been called out several times across several boards, and failed on a scale only Jack Hershey can match. As we both know, anyone can select past winners, photoshop, yada yada yada. (in your defence) which is why you refuse such requests in the past - and I dont blame you - so I find it odd that you now do the same. Frustration perhaps? Besides, the trading that I engage in you wouldnt understand becaue the methods have a defined edge which I will not give up to someone of your calibre. They typically involve looking beyond a bar chart. They involve one price against another price of a different asset. A chart really would do little justice, and thats all you seem to understand. You dont understand edge as you seem to only undersatnd the guess work of a chart. To me thats like a craps shoot. TA provides ZERO edge as it cant ever be objectively quantified. The fact you dont get the concept of an edge, or what a real edge is (clue - it aint a guess), shows the world you dont understand the basics of trading. ho hum. Red or black? Up or down? Trend up bars with volume means we should get another one eh Wyckoff jnr? Or is that gamblers fallacy?

You need a refresh. Here is what you stated: " If you believe that volume does not lead price, then state your opinion and provide your evidence." Evidence of what? Evidence that cause p leads to effect q with probability of x? That is what you imply with the word 'evidence'. Such a finding would constitute a rule would it not? As you well know, I do know what TA is, which is why I can happily state it's a fools errand when it comes to decision making. And further more, I have no need to post my trades. For what purpose? To convince myself that I know what I am talking about? To convince a bunch of anonymous people? My ego is not that fragile. My P&L lets me know how good I am. I dont need feedback or admiration from people I am never likely to meet. Im just here to help those who come here for help. The first step in that process is putting right what is wrong. You and your new buddy Steve (safety in numbers?) represent what is fundamentally wrong - namely a reliance on TA and ego.

This comment strikes at the heart of the foolishness of TA and those who follow it. The real answer is really quite simple: sometimes volume will lead price, sometimes price will lead volume. It really is that simple. Your suggestion of some kind of formulation of a rule or heuristic is really very daft. It is exactly this kind of behaviour, or suggestion that any such heuristic will be of value that steals from you the credibility you yearn for. It's why your following never gets passed newbies - who dont last long because of your flawed thinking. Heuristics can be formed based on market relationships, and traded profitably, but not in the field of TA.

So you should have a big golden C for CLOWN Vendor on your user name to warn everyone you are just another shill right?

Why did you stop selling your ebooks? I imagine it was because everyone realised it was just the same old wyckoff stuff padded out that they can buy on Amazon? Why did you leave T2W BTW? Same for Elite Trader? Where next? BMT? FXF?

Dont be a dork. You continue to embarrass yourself. I quite clearly stated that you could trade ES options on Globex as a DIRTY hedge. i.e. you wouldnt be 'screwed' as you say you would be. Same for VIX. The point is you ramble on about hedging like you know something, yet it is clear to EVERYONE you in fact know f'k all about f'k all. Eitherway, it detracts from the thread title, and is probably quite boring for the other readers. With that in mind, I will leave this alone now. Luckily, other readers can make their own minds up if they want to go on your silly course, or buy one of DBP stoopid ebooks. I have better things to do than educate shills.

Theory states that people will ditch bonds and buy stock when rates are low, opposite when rates are high - thus a supposed inverse relationship. As we all know, theory rarely works in the real world. Currently you have governments buying bonds for QE measures, against a backdrop of low rates - so both stocks and bonds rally.

Please Steve, just think before you either give advise or try to condemn others. All you do is set yourself up for a fall. Your buddy PBPhoenix has learnt his lesson when I demonstrated to him that his guru stance of 'everything except fundamental analysis is TA' was utter poppycock and he really knew jack. We all know he just rehashes Wyckoff dribble and then resells his stuff as ebooks. He should really have the golden C for CLOWN like you do - although I understand the symbol is for vendor. All I ask for is for some sanity here, and less of the ego. We all have different opinions and thats fine. But when you two clowns start parading your opinion as fact, when it is clearly wrong, then you are in fact doing the people who come here to learn a huge disservice. Please, consider yourselves both taught a lesson. Please I beg the pair of you to put your ego's away. Clearly none of you can trade your way out of a paper bag. Next time I find your posts to be spouting worthless opinion as fact I will not be so kind. You have both been warned. Ho hum indeed! Have a nice day now.

Lol. You really should stop embarrassing yourself. It is clear for all to see that you are far too emotional to be any good at trading. The fact that you lack even basic knowledge is even funnier. Alas, it's Sunday, so I shall be gracious and correct you. Here's a step by step process of where you fall down: 1. You are believing the words of a journalist - that is soooo funny. The average WSJ knows squat about trading. 2. Options on 'major indices' are traded on many other exchanges as a substitute. eg if I had a position on spx, as a professional, I would just do a dirty hedge on ES options on Globex if I couldnt trade SPX or other index options on any of the NINE other exchanges open to me. Not perfect I know, but I'm not in as much trouble as you think. You'd be in trouble (or SCREWED as you put it - quite telling - you'd be screwed, we wouldnt be ) 3. Do you even know what the VIX is? Clearly not. If you did, then you would realise that again a dirty hedge could be constructed with ES options. Any real trader would know this. You dont become a success in this field not knowing how to cover your bases. You clearly know squat - as your 'how institutions trade the S&P' thread clearly demonstrated for all the world to see. It's a shame you seem to place such high utility on your time. If I were you, I'd spend your oh-so valuable time learning about the industry and the business before parading yourself as some kind of guru, when in fact you are probably a 13 year old kid somewhere getting kicks. :haha:

Wouldnt that be based on the assumption that price moves in a linear fashion as in the heads/tails coin flip charts? Price doesnt move in a linear fashion does it.

Not really. With there being around 9 other options exchanges in the US, with another 3 to be launched later this year (all listing pretty much the same names), the CBOE going off line for a few hours had very little impact really. FYI, the options contract specification is owned by the OCC, not the exchanges themselves. This means many exchanges are listing the same options - and as the OCC has the ownership, they are fully fungible. I can buy on C2 and sell some on Arca, some on Box no probs. I hope that helps your understanding. Ho hum.

Seems like you've pretty much got it. Basically, I think there are 2 types of edge. 1. Hard mechanical edges based on pricing distortions. These have very low risk. Typically involving some kind of arbitrage, like basis trading, delta neutral trading, structure against structure. Due to the low risk, they are the most competitive - but there are still opportunities. So, generally your transaction costs need to be quite low to exploit them. 2. Softer edges involving inter-market cycles and correlations. You mention a good example. These don't last as long - some longer than others. I used to trade a similar one you mention when I traded Euro futures. Examples include CL & ES, seasonal calendar spreads, etc. They will work more often than not, but the relationships shift over time. The point is, is that you can define each one, and state why it works, how it works, when it will work etc. They arent subjective. The less subjective, the better the edge IMO. Sometimes the edge is a one off - such as the news of a pipeline being build that has altered the relationship between Brent and WTI. That spread will trend for days/weeks as it takes the refineries some time to put their trades on accordingly. The point is that the trade is not subjective. The pipeline has increased supply, so there is an extremely high probability the spread between them will change. It kind of almost has to. You wont see much looking at the outrights though. Yield curve shifts (flattners and steepners) are another example. Understanding bond maths takes a lot more effort than learning a few clown patterns in TA - so few will bother - instead they try to get rich quick - ending up spending years thinking they are learning not to lose. lol. Intraday edges are more likely to be one-offs, but you can spot the same ones recurring if you understand market structure through MP and how to read DOM. This is almost a 3rd type of edge as it is perhaps the vaguest, and definitely more subjective. This isnt TA though. It's understanding how large orders interact with the market. It's becoming harder due to algos breaking up large orders. A chart will never show you this due to the games played though. It's also the hardest to learn - so most pro's wont bother with it.

Sure. You make a valid point. Remember that he said he 'treats' the market as if it is random, not that it is. i.e. random is a model - like mp, or any other model. Personally, I dont like adding to losers. But if someone else can do it with success then good for them. It's really difficult to comment given so little info has been divulged - because the guru's pissed on his fire before it got burning. With so little detail to discuss, I cant help feel we are ourselves just making random remarks!

Indeed. So why all the Wyckoff threads about analysing markets if you are not trying to get some insight over future direction? Isn't that a form of prediction?

In fairness, the first post never really put forward a strategy. He just mentioned he cant 'predict' the market, so treats entries as random. In my book, thats a tactic - part of a strategy. Given we should be in the business of managing probabilities over predicting, then to start off from a random view leaves the trader with only 1 solution - manage the position according to probabilities. Who was the famous trader on the LIFFE floor who's mantra was 'manage the trade'? I wish I could remember. Basically, he'd take a position - the bigger the better and manage it accordingly. He never took a view as such. If it kept going, he'd hold it, trade some more etc. Basically he'd do the exact opposite of what one of our guru's just advised a few pages back. Known trader v wannabe trader cum guru. lol This thread had the chance to finally start discussing real trading issues, rather than rehashing vague 'advise' or some crappy method of analysing markets, based around plagiarism from some old codgers findings from the turn of the last century.

Key Steps to Building a Successful Game Plan.... All fairly vague stuff. You need an edge to be successful. If you go to an investor seeking money for ANY type of business, the investor is going to DEMAND to know how you will make money. What value will you be adding to your product that allows you to sell it for a higher price? Or in trading parlance, how can you demonstrate that over time, your strategy WILL return profit based on changing asset prices. This is usually based on knowledge of intra or inter market interactions, or observable and demonstrable external factors and their impact on the markets. TA is too vague and subjective to offer this. TA does not offer any edge in itself. So, What edge can be found in the FX market? What time frames are these edges occurring in? This is what should be addressed in my opinion. Political factors, economic releases, fiscal policies, rate markets, repo transactions, seasonality such as tax cycles, commodities, option mechanics, etc, etc.... Forget your 5 min chart. You'll need to do a lot more work than back testing basic pattern recognition to find any edge.

This thread is a classic example of why TL is quickly degenerating into a jerk fest like T2W. Give me a break. The chap never said the markets were random, or that there are no non random elements. It wasnt an invitation for others to try and inflate their anonymous egos that no one really gives a hoot about with how much they think they know. So a chap comes around and admits a 'weakness', and describes a solution that addresses his weakness. To me, this shows attitude, it shows humility, it shows someone who's got a better chance of success than our own house guru who failed to make a living selling ebooks on T2W. Yes, we remember that pittyfull plagiarism of someone else's work. Any one with more than a years solid trading experience could see the benefit or how the approach could work. And for the gurus here who are childish enough to jump on the idea before it's even got off the ground by twisting what was initially put forward, here's how it works: You enter based on 'random', you keep risk to a very slight amount, and you hold with some kind of position management. Sure a very high % of trades will lose the small amount, but you only need the odd 1 that really goes to the moon and it's a winning strategy. Not too dissimilar I would imagine from Talebs method of buying loads of OTM calls, knowing most will expire worthless - thus losing money mostly, but catching the occasional black swan that covers the losses and makes good money on top. Any real trader here will know from personal experience that the best trades are the ones that go to profit almost immediately and never look back. But clearly the gurus on this thread dont actually seem to have ever traded. They like to sit round and say 'yeah baby I remember the market back in 2002 - those were the days'. Gimme a freakin break. We all know these gurus dont really trade because they spend way too much time sitting round here telling others how to trade that they cant possibly have any time to trade. Besides, if they were successful traders, they wouldnt spend so much of their spare time on the internet feeding their egos 'teach' anonymous people how the markets are. No - they'd be out spending money, having fun. TradersLabororatory? LosersLaboratory more like.

nope. ....because it always amuses me that no one ever seems to be interested in learning or exploring other ways. Everyone seems to rely on charts despite the overwhelming evidence retail traders lose on the whole, and retail traders use charts. Whether it's herd mentality of the fear of doing something different, or indolence is probably the cause. Rest assured, you'll now have a break as I'm off on a short holiday

well I could be wrong - stocks arent my main focus. Im pretty sure 50% is the max for position trading, but pattern day traders I believe it's more. Best ask a broker.....

Im a day trader too, and I never look at charts during the day. I may note a few key levels before the open, but thats it. Charts simply dont tell you whats going on. A chart is a handicap. Its nothing more than an aggregation of what the buyers & sellers did. Not what they are doing now, and where their pain points are. Utterly useless. I also position trade some stuff. I use a chart a bit more for this as Im more interested in longer term flows - so the aggregation of data that a chart represents may be more meaningful, but I dont spend that long - perhaps 5 mins - just to understand the momentum. I dont use the chart to analyse or decide the trades. thats mostly looking at the numbers against historical data for relationships/ where the edge works. There is no edge in using a chart, as it's too subjective. An edge by its very definition can NEVER be subjective of course. You need an edge to win. So therefore charts are of little value. Of course, if I see a chart that screams reversal, then I may take a punt - but thats quite rare. For my investments, again, I dont really use a chart either. Thats mostly numbers. Maybe a glance to make sure Im not buying in a screaming down trend - Im playing for yield of course when investing. Famous last words....

So basically, you're saying.... Candlesticks on their own are useless Candlestick patterns are hard to identify or define Context on it's own is useless Yet put them together and you have the secret sauce. Assuming the trader can define them properly in the first place. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Folks - Thanks for all the interest in my bitcoins, and for those who took me up on the fabulous offer. I only have $20,000 worth left. I'll let them go for $21,000. or $10,000 for $10,000 or $5000 for $5500