Rick A

I like to calendar-spread targeted, way-out-of-the-money strikes, selling weekly expirys against a months-out call that I hold as an anchor. But I also apply my Hidden Pivot Method to option pricing, since it eliminates the chore of determining "fair" value. Basically, this is just running ABCD patterns to determine where put or call prices are likely to reverse. For directional plays, I typically buy options only when I expect them to go profitable within minutes or hours. In practice, this means buying them only when the underlying is hitting one of my Hidden Pivot reversal points. The attached chart shows a target low of 0.34 for IBM Jan 26 170 puts. That's where I'd try to bottom-fish them, and the hell with fair value, Black-Scholes and all the rest. I can do the math because I was a floor trader for 12 years, but this way is much easier, since it implictly factors ever-changing supply/demand for the options themselves -- something valuation models cannot do.

I don't do any advertising,Thales. My monthly webinar fills up because my forecasting method works, because I am sincerely committed to each and every one of my students, and because they are eager to spread the word. Regarding the matter of an apology, the initial post by me that you've alluded to was deleted without explanation, and so your flippant remark, "You got to wonder about a guy..." was the first indication I had that I'd violated TL etiquette. I'm sure you can understand why this comment did not elicit in me, first of all, a desire to make amends. I do recall taking care to avoid striking a tone that might have been construed as boastful or self-promoting. In context, the $990 price that I mentioned should have offended no one; however, I apologize if it did. I had intended it only as a point of comparison to whatever other courses might be popular among your members. If I had been using your room to promote my wares, I would not have passed up the opportunity to shower you with $50 discount coupons. Your members are welcome to check out Rick's Picks any time. (Do I dare mention that a free 7-day trial is available for this purpose? It affords entry to a 24/7 chat room, as well as acces to my daily touts and other services). Moderated Message: This post has been validated and approved for informational purposes. Solicitations will violate our forum guidelines and will be removed. Thank you. - Admin-

I have responded as appropriate, Tasuki, including to a post by Thales that was personally insulting, but your moderator apparently has censored all of my responses. Sayonara.