jtrader500

Good information I just call what I have adhd, but never really studied it formally. I just know that I go thru various cycles of getting interested in a particular weak area of my life and then I will be so focused on it until I figure out every nook and cranny and make sense of it. It is relentless. Sometimes I dont realize that I didnt eat breakfast or lunch till 4pm. Then I reach a point where all of a sudden, where I could care less what the market is doing. Those are the times that I find little projects to unwind. Like right now, Tonite, my new trading desk came in and I have to set up the monitors and try to create an environment with plants and other calming things to relax with. Thanks for the advice

Every one of your weaknesses can be turned into a strength as long as you recognize the problem and take each one head on until “your strategy is in line with your weakness”. ADHD: Bad parts of adhd is that your mind is everywere and focus is spuratic. The benefit (at least for me) is that if I am really interested in something, I have extreme focus and can take in a lot of information and process it into feelings instead of just numbers. So to keep satisfied, I watch the screens, listen to the S&P squawk pit and listen to all the interviews on CNBC. I get the volumes just right, the lights down low and get into a nice zone flow. If I stay up late or have some other things to do and cant get feeling right, I recognize my state of mind and trade really small just to satisfy my wanting to trade. If you cant “identify” your state of mind and look at yourself as a third party. You wont be able to control your actions and impulses. Talk to youself while trading, one of you say your rules for that setup,(which should always be,”if breaks this, im out”) the other, talk about whats not agreeing with your plan. Impatience: I look at all my R/R’s in a probability setting of where we are located between the bigger picture swing highs and lows of vol and price. Some people use standard deviation stuff, sentiment cycles or whatever. The sizes of my positions are scaled in cycles that match the R/R (just roughly, not calculated. I’m not a freak). This way, you can continue to trade in “coin toss” times. When I am very eager to short a level, I recognize that others are probably eager too. So I put a small pilot position on and then I can really lock my feelings into the trade. Most of the time, this scenario, prices will decline until it looks like im smart. Then it will slowly grind back up for another test or breakout, and that’s where I put on more. The main rule here is that its probably not the final test UNLESS it looks like a 100% likelyhood it will bust thru to the upside. That’s when the pilot position allows you to lock into the feeling of the orderflow. Emotions: I feel that my high emotions is my biggest edge. So while taking in multiple sources in imformation, I don’t have to think logically about numbers. They go straight to my feelings and as long as I can realize that my feelings are a “trading tool” I can then separate my actions. Without that separation, your emotions will kill you over time. That’s why I want traders to understand that if they learn to do this, Their trading will be a lot more stress free. You have heard people talk about “being in the zone”. This is what they are talking about, I think. I hope I am explaining this in a way that people can learn to use it.

Maan, you are good. You got me good on that one! Put the handcuffs on me, you just put me in my place. It made you feel good didn't it I guess before I speak, I should review all my words and make sure that you can get 100% black and white answers like people want in trading. Just kidding! It's just human nature to pop back. Good job remember that I am ADHD and I type while I am thinking, Alot of times I talk in circles and change subjects to something diff. All kidding aside, Pay attention, you will appreciate it later. Thanks

It was a 400 point dow up day, and it pulled back 100 points in the last hour. I could care less how much money or how long it takes. All I care about is that when I get in and it goes my way, I watch the volume. If it breaks hard and fast like this morning, I know the odds of a retracement of some, are high. The slower the grind lower, the more I like it. Here is a little tip, if you care to take it When your in consolidation after a good runnup, and I short a second test and it ranges too long. I will get out because the psy of other traders are taking easy low stress short positions. Now, the pattern has not changed but my strategy has to change. Now there is a higher odds that we will at least stop run those shorts out before we go down. Now I can take advantage of the uneducated shorts and the giddy longs. This is where "the market goes up if it wants to go down" Time changes my rules just like price and vol. To determine if a breakout is likely to fail or not. Look at the speed and consistency up the upticks. If I am short and the market slowly goes to the breakout point, I get out stress free because the energy tells me its probable. It is knowing the basic market rules that give you a consistent edge. I have to go to sleep now, take care

At least your listening. You have a chance Her is an example of my most stressful day and still made money Remember when they approved the EFSF in europe. I was looking to short that news. At 2am the ES was up 16 points. I started picking double and triple tops when the DAX opened and I thought we had the final top. It would come down a little and then grind higher and take out that level. I got out and waited to see if the next level would be it. I did this about 6 times until finally at 3pm, we got an 11 point break and I netted ony $400. That was a stupid day on my part. But, unless the market stays at its high and doesnt pull in at all, I wont get hurt too much. There are lot of other filters that I use, but these are little posts. The 2 days that I lost money, were because the market wore me down and I gave up for the day. The market isnt my enemy, I am I am trying to give only advise that is very important. Like me only trading from the short side. I know its not the norm, but if you picked one market and started trading in only one direction. And you knew that direction and market better that most. They cant beat you over time. The only people that can take my money, are people that know the short side better than me. All the black boxes, fund managers, hedgers, they all show up in the volume. And there, they cant hide. Look at everyone around you and do the opposite.

There is no such thing as luck. I will put it in simple statistical terms If you are playing red and black on the roulette table and I told you that you could pull 99% of your money off right before the wheel stopped if you were wrong. You would do that wouldn't you. I wait till the odds are in my favor and I take a shot at a top as close as possible. If i'm wrong, I get write out and try it again higher. By the end of the day, I will catch it, unless I give up. And once I start the sequence, I dont give up. Thanks

Thats the energy that I like to hear! You are not saying that I cant make money because I am a master at my side of the market are you. LOL This brings me to a very important rule that you should write on your monitor in big letters. IF THE MARKET REALLY WANTS TO GO UP, IT NEEDS TO GO DOWN FIRST I can explain why later, but guess what, it has to do with the psy of the big money. Is't it funny how everthing ends up going back to that. Examples: wave theory=psy Fibs=psy macd divergence=psy A MACD divergence is basically prices making a bottom and grinding up some and then making a faster move to the second test. I will be gauging the people trading while others are looking at a blue line saying "should I jump in". They are using statistics and I am reading people. I wonder who will be more consistent. Thanks

Sorry, I should have been more clear. After I cover my swing shorts after a good downtrend. My patience wants me to trade. So I switch to daytrading and try to be flat by the close each day. So that big runnup, I was shorting every day for smaller moves. As we get overextended like now, I switch to building a short over a week or two and daytrading around it. Like this morning, I was already swing short and when I saw this nice solid high volume run off the open, I just took a shot for 600 shares more of SPY on the quick double top. I got lucky and didnt have to try multiple times like normal. Once it went in my favor and picked up momentum, I set my rule to exit that 600 sometime after 3 legs down and volume about 30k on a 2min chart. I covered that after the retest, a point off the lows. Volume cycles dont change much b/n fear and greed on different days. Trading this way gives you a way to put order in the chaos. I already know when I will cover my core position right now. It will be when I see a selling climax, and get vol prints of about 70k to 80k on a 2 min chart. (general rule only) For example, on a typical day in normal trade, a 8k to 10k vol print on a 15sec chart is a good wakeup call to trade the test. When you know the vol cycles good, then levels, shakeouts, fibs, macd, etc stuff are just obstacles till it gets there. It also allows you to filter your normal trade signals and skip the bad ones. Another example is that I already have a plan laid out to be short during the next 500-900 point dow drop and what the orderflow and spread characteristics should look like. I wont know it until its down about -300, but at that point, I have to play game. Thanks

I think I missed and important point on the last post. When the market has had a run like it has, and looks very strong, The timing is alot more critical, but the risks are lower than if you wait for confirmation that the tide is turned. Some money managers for example measure the deviation of price from the 200 day MA. others, wait for price to cross to the downside of the MA If I am going to trade one way or the other, It will be the one that I can quantify my risk as tight as possible. And if I am wrong, I will be wrong within minutes of the trade and can exit instantly. I like to think of it this way. Which way will I be able to limit the length of stress in a trade. If I trade in the high anxiety zone, close to the edge, I am taking advantage of others emotions and limiting my risk. If I wait for confirmation of weakness, "we all know that prices like to test highs multiple times" I will have to sit through a lot longer heat and hope it doesnt break to the next level. My drawback is that I may have to jump in and out 3 or 4 times. But I eliminate ever having a big loss. The only time I take a bigger loss, is when I give it to them. And that problem falls on me, not my strategy. Thanks

My strategies vary according to market conditions. Last week I started building a short position and then daytrade around it to keep my core swing shorts flat as the market moves up. Right now i'm short 1800 shares of SPY as a core. 1300 is a big psy barrier. Money managers have piled into risk too fast in Jan. What I look for after a big runup is over the past month or so, how many times the market sold off pretty hard in the morning and grinded higher to the close. Now it is pretty much the best trade to rely on. I have seen this action so many times that I know we are close to the, what I call the "trap". I dont know when it will happen (after apples earnings) but its close. Then you should see people buying the early morning selloff, only to get slammed at the end of the day. That will be the trap. Usually a 200-300 dow loss. Plus all the sentiment indicators are to bullish. We, at a minimum, will go back below 1300, and how we act then will determine my moves. My trade style has always been to only short sell. I never trade long. From the Oct lows to Dec on that up move, I daytrade shorted almost everyday and made money. I had 2 losing days on about 400 trades. But that strategy is very stressful on my mind, because it is a progressive system that requires me to stay focused on vol for extended intense periods. As we move to upper extremes in moves, I switch to swing, so I can capitalize on the big money best risk rewards. thanks

You have a lot of good points jay, I would like to give my opinion on a few A good way to reprogram your mind and also be on the opposite side of your emotions is to, instead of looking at prices like everyone else which is, "hey look at all these buyers off the bottom, its going up and im getting in. Look at it like the black boxes that use orderflow algo's which is, "we have tried 3 times to go lower and the sellers just are not there, im going long with a very tight stop. Getting used to looking like this will program your mind to do the opposite of your feelings. then you can read the market with vol and emotions and trade against yourself. As for sim trading, i think that is the worst thing anyone could do. It gives you hopes with your technical skills, but is the smallest part of trading. It would be better to trade some small ETF's so you can start small with real money and slowly raise your risk level as you learn the real thing. The XLF is only $14 do 50 or 100 shares. At least you wont lose that experience time. You can us the sim to experiment with strategies and refine the technicals. its good for that. Thanks

When you think of intitutions and HFT, think of vol size for institutions and consistency of low volatility for program trading. I use the jigsaw reconstructed T&S next an unfiltered T&S. This way I can see the reconstructed market orders and in my side view, see the limit orders that are on the other side of the trade. When I say panic buying, I mean the speed of the tape. Then there is panic buying on different scales, 2min,5min or 15min, One of my basic very general rules is that after I think I identified an exhaustion up move and im short. Depending on the vol that day, I will look at exiting after the 3rd leg down and look for a 30k vol on a 2min chart, and see what happens on the test of that bottom. I always wait for at least on test, even if I give some back. Because most of the time, there is a lower low test. The tough part is assesing your vol levels on swings in different time frames. I look at my speed of the tape indicator to gauge rate of trade b/n peaks and valleys. Know the diff b/n a stop run panic and shredded orders sneaking in. Where they fall in the pattern is the difference. Try to align your true emotions with the volume

Today is a good example of using the Psy side to trade. I have been salivating to get short above 1300 in ES My thinking was that we would hack it up around 1300 and then bust above. Then we need to hold above that to convince most people that it is sustainable and will go to the next level. So last week it hung around 1305 to 1310. But now it needs to get people to chase it and make people panic buy decisively above 1300 So this morning I was looking at the tape looking for exhaustion of buyers, (not big sellers pushing against) If I saw big volumes at the double top this morning, I would have a completely different plan of action. When you get true exhaustion moves, You can expect the market to start working the fear side of the longs until you exhaust them. Thats all the S&P floor traders do. They push and push until it wont go, then start pushing the other way. Thanks

I agree with Rande I think that one of the disconnects b/n this subject and why traders don't really get consistent with psychology is that traders like to thing in terms of normal guy thinking. Which is, "what is the problem" and "I need to do this to fix it" now that problem is solved. Psy doesn't work like that. It's like a big bowl of spaghetti, you can approach it a couple of ways. You can get someone to help you that knows the proper sequence of navigation thru that maze. Or you can do alot of studying in that area and try it yourself and hope you are training yourself correctly. For me, I am fascinated by how people work. It started when I read the book "how to win freinds and influence people" when I was 20 and into the girl scene. When I found the power of pychology with girls, I never looked back. And then I slowly saw that it works in every part of your life. For example, I am 41 now and been married for about 10 years and have only had 2 decent arguments (not real heated) It's not that we are perfect for each other, it's just that I know how to handle all situations in the right manner and take bad situations and make the other person feel good. But you also have to be able to set any ego aside. Any investment in this area will pay you back a hundredfold. If and only if you truly want to change. And to tell you the truth, the 10% that really make it are the ones that really wanted to make it. The others think about the money and that it would be cool to be a trader. Thanks

It reminds me of the bettlejuice movie where they shrunk their heads. Well said. It sounds like someone here wants to get from point A to point B I know this sounds egotistical again, but, later on if I feel that people here have a true desire to be the best, I will share my whole trading system down to my most guarded secret that every pro trader uses in their most profitable setups and alot of them dont realize why it occurred because they are looking at it from the a different angle. It is a very simple psy pattern. But when you waiting for it during the day and honed in on in from the psy viewpoint. When it happens, it is so clear from a risk reward standpoint that it is the only time when you can say, "if it doesn't retrace back to here, I can go to lunch and let it ride. The hard part is that you wont know it unless you are focused from the psy angle at that point in time. The reason is that the "time b/n ticks" is a big part of it. I, in no way want to make it seem like there is a silver bullet. But I am telling you now, Learning the foundation from this angle will change everything. Let me see if I can answer a couple questions, some may be thinking. I am not promoting or selling anything but I will tell you that in a year or two, I may write a book. And I can't sell something where someone can prove that it doesnt work. Thats why I want to try to find anything that I cant explain and figure it out. And when I talk the way I do on here, it should stimulate "good traders" egos to call me out. And also traders who have what it takes, (able to take anybody's opinion and evaluate it) to make it, be able to get to the real source of their drawbacks. not just "you need to be disciplined" Where do I get my information: Besides doing everything wrong, I finally reached a point where the hundreds of ways to trade and stuff to look at, started to come together, when I began to evaluate a bunch of top notch traders and tried to figure out why they all had different measuring metrics but made it work. When I realized that it doesnt matter what metric your looking at. I matters that you know that metric like the back of your hand. Then take it further to see what the fundamentals of all those metrics are and then you see the common denominator. From there you can break that down to the basic key components of 1) speed of trade 2) level of imbalance of bids over offers 3) time between trades 4) trade size 5) Is the size shredded 6) the sequence of size per trade in t&s and some others. (im tired of thinking on the fly) When you spend time on each one and relate them to indicators, you will be able to get the purest form of info. After I was comfortable with this, I went back to test it with traders setups and was able to to skip the majority of signals that didnt work out. Then I studied orderflow characteristics of HFT's and porfolio managers etc. When you can have an edge by identifying who is coming in and out and why, this will boost your confidence which will give you more power to follow your rules. I really hate typing. lol Thanks