natedredd10

I think i started posting on this board in 2007 as darthtrader then would change user names as i learned to 2.0..ect...I think i stopped at 3.6... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DYrwFylaY8&feature=search]YouTube- Anakin Skywalker (The Way I Was)[/ame] I'm not a starwars nerd in the least but fuck I love the mythology of darth vader as how I learned to trade. I'm done posting here until I can post as Darthtrader4.0 in my own foolish ego driven mind... I just posted something on risk management that a think is right, but i could probably argue against myself why its wrong..next time I post as darthtrader, no one will be able to argue with me....going to fix every leak in my game... this place rules..hope it never dies or becomes anything other than a place for hardcore traders to put their brain to the fire. until my next post, may all your trades be EV+ boys

Kind of meaningless without knowing the capital you are swinging...Assuming though you are trading 5 cars to take off 4/80% to leave a contract to run..i think this is -EV because you are not juicing big winners with taking all off at 1 point...Like your trying to build this steady equity curve by deleting the variance of losing vs random huge outlier wins(outlier wins that are juiced on 2 or 3 cars)....That seems to me to be a great strategy to make a break even equity curve.

Randomness would have my birth name can be initialized as N.D...I'm not Bill Joy, I'm WAY lower class and ready to throw down at the drop of a hat...So done with ivy douchebags...You are so done intimidating us....Been a long time coming...You don't want to think about what I'm brining...

Who would ever believe someone with this avatar....lol..May I lay down for you now master?

Nevermind...Im going to continue to post my content for free lol

ehhhhh....that leaves such a bad taste in my mouth.. where there is blood there is opportunity :haha:.

Well that is interesting..can anyone else confirm this?

Anyone every contemplate such madness? Backtracking for years and years... Just to be able to leverage what you know/learn recursive function wise? The idea markets are fractal is bullshit IMO but "markets are recursive".....is a much different story... If you backtrack to an AI idea that markets are recursive, LISP makes soooo much sense. Anyone ever go through such CS nonsense to be forced to wade through this miserable txt http://www.amazon.com/Structure-Interpretation-Computer-Programs-Engineering/dp/0262011530/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1282366424&sr=1-1 I had started on it a decade ago then this bitch broke up with me...

You are obviously going to want to code to FIX...if that isn't the last step in the decision though..don't know what to tell you, other than you are deluding yourself. If we could all be "rich" we would all be poor relatively speaking...Literally if I told ya, I would have to shoot ya.

meh..this is just dancing around the question of where James/soultrader has been at? I assume over a year ago he blew the fuck up prop trading and is just staying afloat on managing this site.. Would love to hear the story..I joined because of his videos back in the day...his long term success was rather meaningless to me although I can't say I wasn't routing for him..........

Mr. Blowfish....your thoughts will be wanted here...

Debate me in ANY aspect of poker and trading and you will lose... I know I know more than you...I've dedicated my entire existence...maybe give your nemesis a place if you want to debate poker theory...markets? You don't have a fucking clue... Ditmar is a jackass but to ban him means you are afraid... You don't have the balls to take this to a real trading board.. Australians are pussies in general from what I've heard though so no surprise... Nate

Meh....this is the ebb and flow at the median of social networks... At one time this place was "the shit"..no reason that would remain though.. I just threw gas and torched a thread of yours on 2+2 called "Phantom Orders, High Frequency Bots & Latency Arbitrage".. "crickets" in your own words... Maybe you really don't want response, and just want to wack off..I don't believe that but the idea of a retail message board is not rational...You already figured out though with multi table poker players from what I understand... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfuXKpMFUjc]YouTube - Warren Buffett MBA Talk - Part 1[/ame]

I'm not waiting 10-20 years per se to trade....from what i know right now it will take 10-20 years to use these AMAZING tools properly to AUGMENT my "intelligence" and add algo EV to my discretionary EV ..A decade to show someone like Ditmar "whats up"...fuck "AI"..even though the concept of augmented intelligence would be the same acronym... I will admit that if there is utility at all in a moving average model, i believe there is more utility in a hidden markov model, more EV, just because of how absurd simple models are compared to modern markets...As if the entire field of time series analysis died 40 years ago.. Of course there is the pit of "i have a phd in x, not many people understand x, x is somewhat correlated to markets, leverage x model...load the gravy train.." Fuck them, I want to exploit them too. My argument for matlab R is really much simpler though..Rentech is hardly in the business of burning cash..Rentech employs Leonard E. Baum... Baum If you trade ES for a period of time, bet your ass a part of villain is Leonard E. Baum trading ideas, massively capitalized trading ideas.... basically, nothing is stopping me from upgrading my stick in a machine gun fight beyond my own lazyness and lack of hard work... As if market profile is a good weapon against an information theory god, backed by the best hedge fund ever... As if we are so dumbass we can't think of something better than 20 yo market profile bullshit..its just lazy.

I discretionary front ran a short term brake out short trying to "livermore" a FX bucket shop yesterday with a bullshit FX account on eur/usd... Why? Seemed better than waiting for the obvious play of trying to grab the bounce off resistance...May as well exploit the profit takers and false breakout traders because it was a +EV bet because of how small the stop could be there... So how would i basically build an "expert system" off that setup, even knowing what I THINK I know over variance and luck..not a clue... Textbook machine learning algos are really bad here, even if you could have all the data, but you wont.. good luck.. Don't get down though..any problem less than this is really dull...even if you fail by 90% you can still probably make more than a "job" if you give the inevitable enough time..

Its their db...1 second granularity time stamps and no column for recording bid/ask...even though they actually burned cash to UPGRADE their db... The level of "stupid" is mind blowing....TS can miss by a mile and still exploit their customer base.

People at the mean are just dumb and lazy...The older I get the harder it becomes to see things otherwise... Even though I think candlestick stuff is ancient nonsense I respect you Browns as a sick price action and order flow trader who uses candles to filter out bad trades... What do you consider to be the best instrument to trade? I just quit my coffee monkey job on Citi's EUR/USD FX option desk and feel like a kid in a candy store being able to trade more than fucking slow long term SPY positions because of compliance... I'm all about N225 right now..just the right amount of arb and nice tick size...with a nice old school lunch break for douchebags. Being around EUR/USD for awhile the EUR/S&P arbs are the masters of the universe...zero interest in ever being on the other side of their trade. No idea what they are doing.

It totally does not...From my experience retail traders fail because they are lazy, incentive is delusional greed..however the biggest mistake is that they are delusional that they are up against some boogie man they call "smart money"... As if somehow institutional traders are not equally lazy and their incentive is delusional greed...from my experience they are actually more delusional..You aint never going to bump shoulders with a bank trader who isn't going to crush reality with their own hedge fund some day...Even though their frat boys or daddy got them their job to start with and they really couldn't give a shit about the game. The reason to trade as an individual is because there are exploitable billions on the table up for grabs to those who want to take it more than the next guy... Collectively, we have evolved a system that is laughable as far as efficient markets go...Your either a 2 bit pirate or you are being exploited.

"Gomi" has done this in Ninja straight out.. Surely it can be done in MC...at least kinda. Surely not a 2 day project though. Before you waste massive amounts of time I would REALLY run through the logic that volume delta makes any sense at all. To me its basically nonsense. Thats not to say that something like Market Delta has not figured out a better chart to visualize tick data than century old candle shit.surely they have.. You should however question that the bid - ask means jack shit in reality in a double auction.

Momentum is totally real but i just can't trade it... Its like jumping in with fools, knowing you are a fool to do so yourself.. Just don't see how you get good position on the other fools.. Seems to me to be an easier fade probability wise.

I've always thought this to be total nonsense.."ohh i don't trade ES because YM lines up better with my S/R lines"...Probably more likely is your S/R lines are basically arbitrary if compared to 2 highly correlated instruments like ES/YM and giving such different results. If you break it down to me you basically have a double auction market with price excited by volatility and bounded by arbitrage opportunity. The only other real variable is tick size.but that is more linked to your risk management and account size than the instrument. We know CL and ES are double auctions..if you input the exact same volatility and arbitrage opportunity there would be no reason to watch both. Arbitrage opportunity can practically be ignored because we know these can't really be the same. So you are left with watching a double auction under different volatility assumptions. If you are starting off why not watch ES/YM and NQ along with CL or corn or USD/JPY or all 4 to get more looks at the basket under different volatility regimes. Or of course you can do what most do and "specialize"... Personally, I have zero interest in being like most traders given the blowout rate and failure rate. Why even stop there...why are you even interested in index futures at all? Not like you need the liquidity. As if the best cable futures trader in the world is somehow only making a few hundred bucks a week because of lack of liquidity. Biggest swinger in pork bellies, oh yea hes broke because he doesn't have the liquidity of ES. Why even trade futures and not etfs on margin? Personally, I can't stand ES..I can't believe anyone here even bothers without maxing out liquidity on YM...For whatever reason though people are just masochists with trading and want to prove they can dance with the devil. You can't devise a harder market to trade than ES.

Can you point to any links of what these promises are? I don't even know what TS data time stamp resolution is. It does amuse me as a jaded Ninja user that TS 9 sounds like it will be out just in time to send them back to the drawing board with this insanely delayed Ninja 7 release.