The Pip Thief

First off it sounds like you have an agenda of some sort. I bought positionsizer for $595 on sale from $695. Not 900 as you state. Go right ahead and program if you can find someone to do it. As well Find me an AUTOMATIC ATR that manages my stop order at the broker by moving the order up while I am in the bathroom or whatever. Please find it for me and post the site here. Everytime the ATR price line moves my stop order is changed at the broker. You really post nonsense my friend!!! API Programming cost $300 an hour and not $100 an hour like normal programming. Just go to FXCM if you want or need to verify the coding prices. I said. "OK, pay $595 for an order entry add-on that gets my order sized and filled at the broker so I am in the trade in less that 5 seconds is worth $595 to me. Especially since API coding cost $300 an hour!" So thanks for telling me I got ripped off even though I did not. Kind my friend, Just makes you look bitter. Sorry you cannot afford $595 or $695. This post was about risk management. Not how much I paid for my software and then telling me I got ripped off. I am out of here. Forums suck. Too many idoits! The Pip Thief

Yes, what do you want to see? Why are the pics not clear? I will post one on Monday just tell me what you want to see. I am moving this weekend and I want the market to be open cause its cooler. The Pip Thief

No, Just a happy client and improved trader. I found positonsizer by typing surinotes into google. The Pip Thief

They again are not the same thing at all. I know of them but they are not an order entry software. I am not understand how you do not see the difference. It is kind of a startling difference I might ad. I click on screen on my entry price, my stop price, then 0, 1, or 2 profit targets them my position is sized and I hit the trade position button. Then a bracket order is sent to my broker and then the entry order is filled and the stop and profit target(s) are place automatically. If I have the AUTO ATR set to on the my stop is automatically moved at IB as the trade goes in my direction. Maybe I was not clear. The Pip Thief.

Hi Thales, I respect your comment but get your facts straight. 1. PositionSizer is an order entry software. You click through the series of prices and your position is sized and then you click TRADE POSITION and the order (MKT-LMT-STPLMT-STP) is sent to your broker. So that means you get sized and the order enter with BRACKETS to the broker in less than 4 seconds. 2. Your balance auto feeds so no need to do this, Can someone tell me if MTP does this actually so I do not sound ignorant? 3. There is a Tick Data Base. 4. There is a live currency feed. Does MTP do this? Again some one answer that for me please? AUTOMATIC ATR manages the trade's stop at the broker and then closes position when it is touched. PositionSizer is an order entry software that works with the API of banks to enter your order with the broker right after it is sized through the trade position button. There are lots of cool features or at least I think so but this is not a buy and sell signal program at all. I am a price action trader and do not have a system. I just use patterns. MTP did not invent the ABC pattern or Position Sizing. I learned the patterns from Suri Duddella's book which is quite nifty I might ad. The Pip Thief

No not at all. Never Posted a single trade from MTP and do not even own it. The Pip Thief

Thanks Daedalus! I actually stopped posting because the thread was me talking to myself there for a while and nobody wants to hear someone babbling on about themselves. So it does give me pleasure to hear your kind words. As for my set-ups. The most important aspect of them all is that I look for low range bars to enter so I can buy more contracts or money in the method IB(Interactive Brokers) takes their orders. With IB they want the $ amount and not the lot quantity. This means that you can enter any size $ value in increments of $1000 as long as the order is over $25,000. This allows you to size right up to your actual % Risk. As for the actual set-up I am just looking for the ABC in the swing chart and then if at the top of the swing I get a low range bar then I am in heaven. Why? Because I can buy a lot of money on the low range bars. I can use a tight stop and if the bar breaks in the right direction I am sized and in within seconds. Pretty basic but the profits are all in the way I size the position. I have done a lot of math on sizing models and tight stops rule because you will get on those 10 to 15 pounders once in a while. Risking 1% and getting back 15% is a great feeling even if it only happens rarely. Look at the charts I have attached and you will see why even if I get stopped out with the tight stops it is better than using a large stop of 20 to 30 pips which many traders use. Or a Fixed $ amount. It is Friday so I am going to do a short post for you. Check out the 2 ABC's from yesterday and then the one we had today as well but I did not post the pic. You can almost always find these and even several per day. The key to making big money on them is the right sizing. The Pip Thief

Very Interesting indeed. Did you see how when you change the trade sequence that Fixed Ratio is better in first example and then in the second example Fixed Fractional is much better? In reality the best strategy would be to start a small account with Fixed Ratio and then go to Fixed Fractional as it grows. Again this does depend on distribution and the only way to find out how to trade your system best is to do 10,000 simulations of 100 or 1000 trades and to see what would have been best. I must admit that I am too addicted to % risk and prefer my model for the stage that I am presently. Good article though and just goes to show you how Numbers can play games on results depending on all the variables. I would not say I am a believer but I definitely give merit to the Fixed Ratio at this point which is something I would not have done previously. So thank you to all who reasoned me through this mental process. The Pip Thief

DUGDUG, I see what you mean. Your are 100% Right about the psychology side side. All to often traders lose in not on the losing side but on the winning side. Had a friend do this actually. These ups in trading can be deadly. Sorry, you wording did throw me off and I guess I was quick to shoot without proper examination of your remarks as I was just thinking of the math and not the psychology of the equation. If you head is not right then none of these strategies work. That is for sure so I am right on with you there. Thanks for the clarification. I guess I am the one who was letting something fly over my head, which happens quite often if I am honest. The Pip Thief

This is going over you head I think because it does not matter the number of contracts you trade. You are missing the point of % Risk Modeling. They are risking 1 % . How can it be stressful risking 1% I ask you, You need lose 20 straight to be down 20% I will take those odds any day. What I am finding is Fixed Ration dwells on contracts and this is not good versus % Risk dwells on the % you risk and not the # of contracts. Plus being up 90% after only 24 trades would give me enough confidence to trade this system. The Pip Thief

Sorry but you are not answering a question that could be answered. After much reading and research of your strategy, I just wanted to tell you that from the information I gave you you can answer my question with hypothetical responses. 1. You could say that if this was your starting balance then you would trade one contract and calculate your delta and then increase by on contract every time your balance adds a delta. Like if 4000 was the delta then I would trade 2 contracts at $74,000. 2. If my starting balance was 50,000 and I had the same $4000 delta then I would be trading 5 contracts at the $70,000 mark. Wow that was easy! I know more about your strategy than you already. Plus it is funny how you gave me a link trying to prove you were right and it proved you wrong:rofl: Fixed Ratio Position Sizing After 24 trades on the link you gave me we are only up $55,268 in equity and trading 2 contracts with a starting capital of $50,000. Now on that page there is a link to my method with the results. MATH Results that you had to see or you would not believe. I put the link in below. This is the # Risk Model crushing your results. These were the same sample of trades by the way. Fixed Fractional Position Sizing Another Name for % Risk Model Now our equity with the same trades is at $91,887 after 24 trades and we are trading 13 contracts with the same $50,000 starting capital. So your model made 10% and % Risk Model made 90% after 24 trades. WTF!!! If it was a difference of 10% then yes I would still say maybe there is a chance your model is better than % Risk. But the numbers are lopsided. There are your numbers my friend, ironically found on the site you turned me on too. Now if you come back and argue now it is just a case of ignorance. The Pip Thief

So I am understanding that this starts off trading 1 contract. Even if you balance can handle more? This does not make sense. What if I have a million and and a Delta of $10,000 then I start trading one contract and when I have 1,010,000 then I would start trading 2 contracts? Am I understanding this correctly? "Because the number of contracts always starts at one, the fixed ratio method usually produces better results for smaller accounts. For larger accounts, it may take an unreasonable amount of time to increase the number of contracts to a level that takes full advantage of the available equity." This is not a strategy that is interesting at all for larger traders. I must point out that the flexibility is proven better with % Risk Model. If you take any field actually, not trading, including census studies, disease control, migration or crime stats. All of these are put into percentages because it is naturally easy to compare fields of data that may not have the same sample size and allow us to make comparisons. To say that that 30,000 people have x problems means nothing really when you break it down. Is that 30,000 out of 300,000,000 or out or 35,000 which are completely different statistics. The % Risk Model allows you to risk 1% of your capital in Stocks, Futures, and FOREX and be able to compare the losses with a quantifiable way. One next to another. You may also say I average winning 3 percent for every one risked in Stocks but 5 percent for every one percent risked in FOREX so I am going to put more of my equity into FOREX because I have a better return. I have read that article and you can keep you method and I will keep mine. We will agree to disagree:crap: The Pip Thief

Actually, so I can learn something here as well. Can some one please size up the position that I have posted above and have attached here as well. This is a short trade. The entry price is 1.6239'5 The stop price is 1.6249'5 Tell me how large your position would be with a $70,000 account. How would you size your position? I am asking this to learn because I really do not understand this fixed ratio position size model. Now after you are sized and you exit at 1.6136'9 how much did you make? I would appreciate if anyone could give me a serious answer. Thanks The Pip Thief

Below I have listed the streak odds for 50% win rate up to 15 straight losses. The gambler’s fallacy is that the longer your losing streak the better your odds of winning on the next trade. Of course this is not true because each trade is statistically independent. So here are the odds without emotion or error. 2 Losses in a row = 1/(2*2)=1 out of 4 or 25% or 250 times in 1000 3 Losses in a row = 1/(4*2)=1 out of 8 or 12.5% or 125 times in 1000 4 Losses in a row = 1/(8*2)=1 out of 16 or 6.25% or 62.5 times in 1000 5 Losses in a row = 1/(16*2)=1 out of 32 or 3.125% or 31.25 times in 1000 6 Losses in a row = 1/(32*2)=1 out of 64 or 1.5625% or 15.625 times in 1000 7 Losses in a row = 1/(64*2)=1 out of 128 or .78125% or 7.8125 times in 1000 8 Losses in a row = 1/(128*2)=1out of 256 or .390625% or 3.90625 times in 1000 9 Losses in a row = 1/(256*2)=1 out of 512 or .1953125% or 1.953125 times in 1000 10 Losses in a row = 1/(512*2)=1 out of 1024 or .09765625% or .9765625 times in 1000 11 Losses in a row = 1/(1024*2)=1 out of 2048 or .048828125% or .48828125 times in 1000 12 Losses in a row = 1/(2048*2)=1 out of 4096 or .0244140625% or .244140625 times in 1000 13 Losses in a row = 1/(4096*2)=1 out of 8192 or .01220703125% or .1220703125 times in 1000 14 Losses in a row = 1/(8192*2)=1 out of 16384 or .006103515625% or .06103515625 times in 1000 15 Losses in a row = 1/(16384*2)=1 out of 32768 or .0030517578125% or .030517578125 times in 1000 My win rate is in the high 40's and this is why I bet 1% per trade. You are exactly right KIWI. You have done your homework. 1000 trades a year and you will normally have a streak of at least 10 losses in a row which is something most traders could not handle and when you risk to much you are dust in the wind. The Pip Thief

I do not know? Van Tharp is the Grand Father of PositionSizing through inheritance of Seykota. He profiled over 5000 and then proved the MATH in his book "Definitive Guide to Position Sizing" that % Risk Model is the most statistically viable via the samples he puts forth in the book. We could argue this for hours but I guess I choose % risk because it is way easier as well. As to hindsite. That is kind of funny because we are not looking for points of entry in time but how to size market moves. They are completely not correlated in this sense. Take that same move with a one lot position or with a stop of 30 pips. What does that give you for a ROI in this trade? You are missing the point! Again there are no rights or wrongs here so I am just giving you my standpoint as to what I think is best for a simple mine like mine. The Pip Thief