johnw

You would need favorable winds if six months is your time line ...very favorable indeed. This is a game where experience and time in the market means everything and so after six months of training our Trader would be entered into the race of his/her life. Can he/she accumulate experience at a rate sufficient to stay alive ... this would mean that he/she would need to accumulate profits at a faster rate than the next lesson would absorb. My question to you Db is "would you bet on this Trader succeeding"

I can't answer for Steve, but this pattern is created by s&r zones as has been mentioned, and occurs several times per session on ES. It is highly accurate and can run 16 tics quite quickly. The run size and speed depend on two events. 1.. if another s&r zone lies just outside the zone that this pattern is testing then pressure is been added to the Trader to fade the pattern. 2 .. if a third zone lies ahead of the intended fade then the price will run to the this zone almost without doubt and the distance to this 3rd zone can be 12-16 tics. Granted, the faded trade must push through the original zone that created the pattern, but it's appetite to cause trouble has been largely eroded by the pattern itself as it chewed through stops on the fade side of the congestion. The premise to keep in mind at all times is that price waves start at the opposite sides of congestion before eventually breaking out. As for 22 seconds, I am here to learn about HFT so I cannot comment. But I imagine HFT trades have a long tail distribution and a breakout trade from the pattern we are discussing lies in that long tail or as an outlier. But does it really matter? If I kept an analytical log of trades (which I don't) or if I kept a diary (which I don't), I would find that my distribution of my trades was asymmetrical as well, and that is the outcome that I want and work towards.

Hi Neg, Thanks for doing the leg work. I have looked at the Steve's six examples and yes he has highlighted a recurring pattern of behaviour where price does a test and then retest of a level followed by a retrace. Usually, as has been mentioned this zone lies to the outer edge of an s&r zone or a zone of little activity. And yes it is a good setup for a retrace. But this setup has been around for years in my memory and perhaps bots have picked up for this very reason. This conversation concerning bots is a good conversation IMO, but it needs to focus around exactly what bots are doing to the market that Traders are not already doing. I remember the conversations concerning the use of Indicators and it became apparent that the latest fashion was to trade without them. As MM has just pointed out ... the only way to trade is profitably Or as my Broker points out ... it doesn't matter what you do so long as you make money. ST makes a good point that bots could effect order entry and I would be interested to hear from someone who knows how solid the order enter queue really is for the CME [as an example] And so, I like some others here am looking for substance in the matter of bots and their effect on the markets... I know very little about the subject of bots because I am completely removed from the People who control and build them, and that is why this conversation is important to me. And because it is important it would be a shame to see it disintegrate into a fashion item because bots are the new new thingy. Thanks again Neg for your legwork and thanks Steve for posting the six charts .. I know it all takes valuable time.

hi Steve, Welcome to the world of Qi (chi) or as you describe it ..'breath control' Asia knows it by various names according to culture, but essentially it is 'life force' If you want to give your Students and Yourself a real edge, then I suggest you learn to cultivate Qi .. it will set you apart from the others. Thoughts such as "block or interrupt that negative "chain of responses" will disappear over time as you remain only in 'the now' In fact positive and negative will disappear... simplicity will rule the day.

Hi Curtis, IMO you are very wise using brackets [OCO] In fact if you choose to occasionally enter on MOs then you can simply enter a bracket behind the price and when you are ready to enter you can drag the Sell Trigger in front of the price and it will fill instantly.... I never enter naked without a bracket. I think you are also very wise with your concern that you do not leave open positions unattended or naked Stops in play ... I have learn't the hard way to flatten even after I think that I am flat... check and check again. Also I agree about weekends and maintenance ... if you are a Day Trader then reward yourself by being a Day Trader ... work hard for a few busy hours during the day and then flatten your account and do something entirely different. I don't worry about my daily account position whilst trading nor do I set profit targets, so can't comment on these ones. IMHO Trading is all about winning and forfeiting trades in order to make money through trading size .. This means we need to achieve a solid base of ratios [ win/loss% and tics won /tics lost ratio ] as a precursor to trading size ... So we don't want to FU the basics through stupidity and carelessness and make this game any more difficult than it need be. I like your approach to planning ..it is thoughtful.

Well today we have a houseful of Tradesmen and so I am in their zone today. Speaking of cricketers, Shane Warne is very nicely inside Liz Hurley's zone .. I doubt if you could lever him out with a crowbar. I believe you can be 'in the zone' in almost anything you put your mind to doing including learning how to trade and preparing for each session. Firstly we decide to do it and then we relax into it... there is no stress or willpower as these things cause separation of body mind and soul. There is no substitute for planing and preparation .. none what so ever. Ask any one armed Samurai and he will confirm the above statement

MM My belief of 'the zone' is it is a state of existence where action and reaction occur very nearly simultaneously in a state of clarity. You cannot be winning or losing when you are 'in the zone' because nothing exists other than you and The Price ... if you are aware of winning or losing as you trade then you cannot be 'in the zone' You can be 'in the zone' and still lose in sports as you can in F1 and still crash. The Zone is a state of existence whereas 'a crash' is an outcome, just the same as a losing trade.

gm MM, If your state of mind relies on winning consistently, don't you think that you are describing 'EUPHORIA' It's opposite is 'DYSPHORIA' 'The ZONE' that is being described here is a place that is quite different

I quite understand .. it is a bugger really... particularly if you win in court and then refuse to pay, all the while providing your own legal team on both sides. But don't lose heart SIUYA, I have every confidence (or lack of) that things will change soon. When we pause to consider for a moment that Greece Ireland, Portugal Spain and Italy are guaranteeing almost 40% of the EU loans in one form or another, to themselves as they bravely try to borrow their way out of debt, then it becomes obvious that the Politicians are capable of anything, providing that it meets the stupidity criteria.

gm Neg, I would suggest that 'the zone' is a heightened state of awareness where the very essence of a Trader's emotions, feeling, intellect is focused on 'the now' The Trader and the Price are seamless and rather than being devoid of emotion the Trader attains a state of clarity. FWIW, I think only dead people can be devoid of emotion and they do not need to stop breathing to be dead.

I find there are no conclusions to be drawn from the OP that connect 'The Art of Trading' and the success of Traders to Regan. It is just another sad story of a Conman and his stupid Followers ... please note I did not use the word 'victims' because being a victim of your own stupidity is not a crime... well not as yet, but with the continuing erosion of self reliance and self responsibility I would not be at all surprised to wake up one morning and read that the Law now permits a person to sue themself. The very occasional person who wants to become a Trader and has the emotional capacity to do so successfully, begins his/her journey from a point of self assessment. Nowhere does self assessment even remotely include any acts of stupidity.

good morning, Interesting comment above. My question is ... why on earth would you attempt to limit your emotions. Why not re-train them to work for you when trading. You seem to want to deliberately handicap your potential

gm MM Good question. I would say that high testosterone levels and qi (chi) are one and the same. If you improve your qi then testo will follow ...I don't necessarily believe that the reverse applies

"look at the big picture..." Unfortunately Tams, The Fractional Reserve Banking System levers Greece's debt ( both public and private) into a very large number indeed. And to add to the woes, Europeans have permitted their Banking System to lever out to 26:1 ... twice the level that conventional wisdom dictates. This is a political problem that will only accept a political solution to the angst of Nationalism versus Federalism

The Euro Bond issue fully exposes the weak underbelly of the common currency ... federalism v nationalism. The Germans believe [rightly or otherwise] that a Federacy will solve the currency problem AND permit them to retain their nationalism since they are the largest Nation. Smaller, weaker Nations see federalism as the arch enemy of Nationalism and do not want a bar of it. This leaves the situation at best as an unworkable compromise. Germany/Netherlands believe they have a ready export market within Euroland at ex factory pricing since there is no exchange mechanism to artificially inflate the sale price of their exports to weaker corners of Euroland ... plus the icing on the cake is that the PIGS are holding back the value of the Euro, which leaves German exports to US, China etc more competitively priced. So where does that leave the gross imbalance in productivity between North and South Euroland ... well it leaves it flapping in the breeze because every time it becomes the centre piece of conversion we return back to Federalism v Nationalism ... which remains unsolvable as we know. No doubt, at some stage some bright spark is going to bring up the two tier system as practised in South America where the dollar has been used to hedge the local currencies and bring some stability to real estate. This type of wooly thinking would buy time for the Euro Leaders to complete their terms thus leaving an even bigger mess for the next guy, but since they are already dropping like flies at the polls, this is hardly relevant anymore. The latest mutterings that default by Greece would be dreadful for the Greeks, tends to indicate that a quick clean exit will probably go rather well for them. I imagine that Russia or China would be more than accommodating to gain a backdoor in Europe plus a Mediterranean Port or two. And wouldn't a France/Italy combo be a far better fit than the unworkable Franco/German dream of Sarko and his girlfriend ..golly even Spain might join in the fun. With China well on it's path to a hard landing, taking Asia with it (and this includes it's southern province of Australia), all the Japanese need to do is devalue the yen 40%+ and they will not only solve their internal dilemmas but they will unseat S. Korea and put a further dent in China for many years to come. Nobody can say that our brave little world is a boring place and our brief flirtation with social democracy over the last hundred years is dying as we speak ... this makes Obama's foray into socialism even more difficult to comprehend as he is arriving at a party from which everyone is leaving because they have drunk all the alcohol.

Very briefly Euro bonds will be underwritten by the Tax Payers in ALL Euroland equally. The Germans hold the view that the PIGS will relax back and let the Germans do the heavy lifting since they have more to lose [ie AAA rating]. Also they are afraid that their cost of borrowing will increase since Euroland will be viewed as one identity rather than individual Countries as is now the case.

JD, We know that Price is an absolute simply because it is correct 100% of the time. Therefore we trade Price and Price alone. Then there is you ... JD the Trader ... the man who is going to turn Price into Profit. Therefore you need a methodology to achieve this worthy goal ... Price into Profit. Once you have defined yourself and your methodology, the amount of pre-planning should drop into place and that is what you will do each and every trading day. My suggestion is to keep planning to a minimum, since the more you think you know then the more you will screw up. Price has a plan and the plan is to go where it wants to go ... it is never wrong. FWIW I think that if you are required to spend more than a couple of minutes pre-planing the day then you are over complicating the task at hand and you are bound to fail. My Broker always says "it doesn't matter what you do just so long as you are making money" .... I never forget it. And so I think that planning should be a sub function of your methodology to turn Price into Profit goodluck

No ... I am just an enthusiastic amateur .. a perpetual student of life

Well done and good for you. Might I ask what sport and career did you chose to fit your personality. The reason I ask is because these activities seem to find people early in life without conscious thought and children just grow into them through the natural ability of youth and the encouragement of Elders. Later in life they may question their choices to the point where they make huge life changes and that tipping point is normally the result of an overwhelming desire to change and seek one's true potential. But it appears that you are different ..quite different indeed. You consciously chose a sport and a career that suited your personality, presumably at an age when Kids still think they are bullet proof and are capable of achieving anything. What made you do this ... can you remember the defining moment in your life when these choices presented themselves and you narrowed your selection to those of sport and career. Mostly, my experience with thoughtful children is that it makes them timid and they need encouragement to take chances, just as reactive children need encouragement to think through 'cause and effect' In the end both these groups of kids grow up to be just fine. But you seem to be special and I am curious to know your background.

You seem to be very comfortable with capping your potential by your thoughts. I imagine this locks you into a self fulfilling prophesy.... the old perfect circle ...as I think then so I do ... as I do then so I think.

Fascinating point of view. Firstly, can I say that if this is what you believe, then nothing in your world will/can ever change. But how do you account for Tiger Wood's sudden drop in performance and his incredible struggle to regain his form.

gm larry, It is the same story with employment. If employment is improving then why are the monthly payroll tax receipts dropping at the IRS yoy. If you believe as I do that we are in the eye of the storm and if you are a Yachtie, then you will know that the back end of the storm is far more dangerous and far more prolonged. The boat is stuffed, the crew are stuffed and it is no wonder that delusional fantasy takes hold in the eye of the storm .... experienced Yachties know that the eye offers a window of false stability in which to repair, regroup and rest before the nightmare continues.

Probably triggered a solid wall of stops by the look of the chart

Better To Buy Strength Or Weakness? Always BUY into Strength, but buy into it by fading into the price. This keeps you close to your protective stop and gives you Sellers to buy from. Remember that buying the breakout can leave you unfilled when you read the move correctly, but you will always be filled and a long way from your stop, when you read the price move incorrectly. Trading is just a game .. however the winning methods may seem unfamiliar.

It is all to do with waiting for momentum to washout before taking a position. If you are trading ES from say a 5 minute chart you really don't have a chance of seeing it.