johnw

gm Predictor, I am enjoying your ES posts, please keep them coming.

My first trip to Brisie was in 1969 and on the drive from the old airport into town, I couldn't help thinking that the place reminded me of Suva. And no, that is not a compliment. You do know that old Joh was a Kiwi sent to undermine the great Aussie nation. Now the Kiwis have sent you Robbie Deans on a similar mission to destroy the Wallabies.

gm Yorkid, A wee Scottie no less I see. I hold Scotland in great reverence. As a small boy, I adored porridge ... I would add milk and brown sugar and eat it slowly, savouring every delicious mouthful. As a young man I developed a hankering for scotch and I have always credited Scotland for both products ... I am half Scots. But it wasn't until I reached Loosiemouth in my travels that I experienced what I have come to call the eighth wonder of the World. It was in Loosiemouth that I was taught to bring the two products together ..... yes, you pour Scotch over the porridge and that becomes breakfast ... it is certainly a kickstart to the day I can tell you. And so I have always harboured warm memories of Scotland ( well up until Loosiemouth anyway, when everything went pear shaped and fuzzy) So Yorkid, the next time you feel the need to emigrate from Scotland, try re arranging your breakfast and I promise you that your day will improve immediately and the urge to go somewhere will pass.

Why don't you tell us why you think that Auss is depressing ... just to get the ball rolling. Where did you live and how long were you there ... don't worry I am not an Aussie but I have lived there and depressing is not a sentiment thatsprings to mind. That is why I am curious about your thoughts.

I read of the prank on the BBC website and my first thought was "where is the security protocol for both the Hospital and the Royal family" When I read of the sad death of the Nurse (and I might add we all remain unaware of the exact cause of death until an investigation has been completed) I still wondered where the Security Protocols had disappeared to. Certainly, had they been in place, the first part of this event would have ceased to exist ... I am referring to the prank itself and the link between the prank and the Nurse. Personally, I like Aussie humour, it helps define their spirit and it will be a sorry day if it is crushed. I also prefer a world that includes the British Royal Family and I greatly admire the work of the Queen as I admired the work of her parents during WW2

muchas gracias Pred.

hi Pred, Can you tell me what an OF reversal is please. thanks

hi there Pred, Have you given any consideration to accumulating the ask-bid spread with an automatic reset to zero at the RTH open. Bots and Traders may be taught many tricks, but they cannot hide their tracks.

Very good piece Rande.

hi bob, If you are contemplating re-launching yourself as an Intraday Trader, there are three thoughts I would like to pass on. ... you need to give careful thought to your screen setup ... ie type and size of bars .. amount of info on the screen and particularly is it original info or does it mimic something else ... your rules for imbalance need to be cut and dried as the good trades happen quickly...this is a good sign because it means that you are thinking like the group of people who have the capacity to move markets. ... this all requires focus and concentration which means time away from the screen is very important ... therefore you need a crude alarm setup that will pull you back to the screen when price is entering a setup zone ... it doesn't matter about the number of false alarms within reason, just consider the amount of time that you are being released from the screen so your mind can default back to neutral before the next alarm.

gm bob, Well, you will receive all sorts of good advice on this topic and it remains for you to decide what you are going to do with it. FWIW and IMHO, Trend trading and intraday trading are different animals all together. In the long term, price is being pushed somewhere and the resolve and commitment of the Trend Traders is tested along the way creating pullbacks and recoveries until eventually the trend runs out of steam and dies. Day trading is all about, in fact it is only about finding and exploiting imbalances. Yes there are times when the intraday moves in harmony with the long term trend, but this must not be allowed to cloud the issue, and that is .. The Intraday Trader should be hunting and exploiting imbalances. Taking the ES as an example, there are a number of trade-able imbalances every day. If the day is trending then the number of occurrences are usually less and the number of tics in each trade is greater. If the day is going nowhere, the number of trades is greater and the number of ticks per trade is less ... both of these days are excellent for trading. The risk upon entry of a Day Trader is minimal because either the trade runs almost immediately or The Trader scratches the trade, usually for a tick or two of profit or occasionally a tick or two of loss. If you are garnering the impression that The Intraday Trader is stacking the odds greatly in his/her favour then you are correct. Once The Trader is booking a solid performance each day and the number of scratch trades are not too great and the total ticks from scratch trades is zero or better, then The Trader will begin to increase size. 1 to 2 lots is 100% ... 2 to 3 lots is 50% ... 10 to 11 lots is 10% increase... and so on On the other hand, The Trend Trader is employing his/her FA/TA skills to climb onboard a long term trade in the correct direction. His/her ability to manage the trade is less than The Intraday Trader and he/she needs deep pockets to increase size significantly once pullbacks, overnights and weekends are factored in .... never the less, a good profitable trade will net thousands of dollars on a set and forget basis. Each imbalance that is encountered is a pullback / trend reversal potential to a Trend Trader ... whereas these imbalances are potentially profitable trades to The Intraday Trader. So, in my book, Trend Traders and Intraday Traders are two completely different creatures and it is entirely over to you to decide who you are when you trade ... this is most important. goodluck

Hi Ingot54, Have you given consideration to switching your IP address to suit your viewing needs.

“One of the strengths of technical analysis is that it captures sentiment,” says Lo I can relate to this, but I must admit I have never had much luck with fixed inputs such as fibs, 4 or 9 or 18 ..... but I do believe in 50% of a significant channel, because I see it several times every day. I can't help but wonder if 38.2 and 61.8 are nothing more than an over-run of the 50% line. As for the 200 day line and the 50 day line, they are too large for me to take an interest in. Our minds are always seeking relativity and we need to be aware of this.... many is the time that we identify relationships that may be close, but they do not stand up to accuracy tests ... fractals in time frames being a classic IMO .... the relationship between TFs may be almost fractal, but that is as close as it gets. The golden ratio may well occur in nature and we may very well carry it forward into architecture because it proves to be both structural and pleasing on the eye, but I cannot make the leap from this into Trading. However the litmus test as always is ... are they making good consistent money from their trading

Probably because they pay the most tax. This could be changed simply by means testing social security which is a heck of a lot easier than leading unhealthy people out of the wilderness.

I agree. I was not picking on the US but it happens to have a two term Presidential limit, unlike some other Countries, and since Pres O has a four year self life, it seems reasonable to me for him to push medicare into the roots of the problem ... which is healthcare ... and the obvious pointy end of healthcare is obesity. Any Leader who can successfully turn this problem around is going to give their Country an edge.

Why oh why did you get sucked in by the Kiwis and pick up Robbie Deans as coach.... he is an All Black cast-off. You have all gone soft ever since China started paying full market price for all your minerals Please shake the dust off 'The Little Aussie Battler' .. we all miss him. 請搖小澳元的戰鬥者“的灰塵......我們都會想念他的。

From my observations, obesity has embedded itself into American life and is strangling the Country. I do not think The Pres can count on a cooperative Congress, since it spells political suicide for many. That is why I chose the word 'brave' ... he must go it alone and see what support he can muster along the way. After all, The Pied Piper managed to pull this one off from a standing start ..... mind you he was only dealing with rats.

The straight forward way to address medicare is by adopting a policy of healthcare ... in other words focus attention on becoming and maintaining a healthy state of both body and mind. This would eliminate a large chunk of medicare spending. Mind you it would require bringing obesity out of the shadows and into the spotlight. All it requires is brave leadership.

gm DbP, IMO, the future is always different, even when we are repeating the same mistakes. Where I think the confusion lies is in our perception of what is realistically achievable and what is just plain nonsense. Our ability to over quote the benefits of action and understate costs must have the rest of the galaxy ROTFLMAO .... I do not imagine that this tendency is about to change. If The US is to gain an advantage over the other Trading Blocs whilst they are busily distracted by larger internal struggles .. then I do not image that it will resemble The US of bygone days. Some people may enjoy it, many will feel out of place and all the younger people will know no other world. You might say "what is different about that" but I feel that everything must be viewed in the overall context of 'progress' My bullishness for The US is not an absolute, it is merely relative to my thoughts on the likely performances of the other Blocs .... or to put it another way I think that the negative effects of US politics are likely to be less damaging than those in the other Blocs in the next couple of decades.

The key to cleverness lies in the timing, not in the sweeping assumption ... please remember that in order to 'dump' the dollar, somebody must buy something in return ... gold, recapitalization ..stocks indices ... other currencies, there is always another side to the transaction. I am not bearish on the US, infact quite the opposite.... firstly the wash-out of debt must continue for another say five years, with the bottom of the trough forming 2013. Gradually robotics will return work to US in order to reduce labour and transaction costs, whilst shale oil will perform a bridge as a fresh approach to energy is sort ... I am not a great fan of wind and solar power since main stream generation must be maintained given that wind does not always blow nor does the sun always shine. However robotics and shale together will reduce the balance of payment problems, together with the growing notion that consumerism is not the best driver for the economy. There are only four economies of any real size in the world US, Europe, China, Japan with the prospect of India becoming the fifth and if you are in a dreamy mood you could call Lat Am number six. Each of these groups is facing enormous problems, not to mention the added childish notion of "let us weaken the currency and export our way out of our problems." Weaken against what? I ask and how long do you expect to get away with it. Leaving aside the current very popular approach of muddling about as debt is washed gradually away and Countries are now half way through a lost decade or more .... there is another approach to consider, and that is to grow the economy. While this is stating the obvious, it is hard to do and requires clarity of thought and good leadership. Of the five or six economic groups, the one that is best placed to take advantage of the opportunities is The US, even although this is not readily apparent at present. The other groups all have daunting internal problems to come to grips with first before they can move on and these problems will entertain them for many years. This is why I am bullish on The US. For example, when Japan devalues the yen, it will present both China and S. Korea with years and years of problems, in China's case the problem may become much much larger if US kindly lends Japan a helping hand (which it will) The one thing about living on this planet with seven billion people is that every day is a new day ... assumptions are made with great authority, change is promised, rhetoric replaces commitment and technology marches on ... it is the greatest show and I wouldn't want to miss it.

Things have been placed on hold until after the US election and now that time has arrived. Little attention has been paid to the changing of the guard in China and yet the impact of this event is far more reaching.

Yes ... I think that People should learn market structure to begin and then there is a chance, just a vague chance, that they may realise that price did not begin as a graph, let alone a candle or a bar. This may just help them appreciate all the decisions they must undertake before they load the pretty red line onto a candle, bar, line, tic, vol, range chart ... and all this assumes they have decided to trade from graphs

Fundatech .. I used Fundatech. When you don't know FA about TA and when TA merges with T&A, try using Fundatech. I am considering offering it for sale. I owe it all to DbP when he mentioned "give a system a cutesy name" and it is as good as money in the bank

gm SIUYA, Interesting article thank you, but nothing really new. However I did pick up on the second to last paragraph ... A more unusual discovery about decision-making was made this year by a group of psychologists at the University of Chicago. They found that when people discuss their decisions in a non-native language, irrational biases are reduced. Speaking in a foreign tongue creates a distance between the speaker and their own ideas, helping them be more rational. So companies in which members of the management team communicate mostly in a second language may have an advantage. My Wife and I have lived in predominantly Spanish/Portuguese speaking countries for the last nine years .... these languages were foreign to us when we arrived (French being our second language) and even now our Spanish is social and our Portuguese trails behind that. There is no way I could have a rational discussion in Spanish without the risk of it being misunderstood. The outcome though has it's benefits ... ....our unspoken communication skills have improved enormously ....our awareness of just how much time is lost over discussing trivia is acute. ....we are more self reliant than ever. ....and lo mas importante, one of the reasons for coming to Lat Am was because of the time zone so I could teach myself to day trade .....the lack of distraction has helped me focus and has greatly improved my clarity and I notice this difference when we are in English speaking countries. And so, as exhausting as it can be sometimes living amongst a Culture that is foreign to us, it does have it's benefits and I totally agree with the Author of this article..

What a pity I will miss it .... mind you, we have seen this occur with many Politicians during the years of credit expansion. During the carefree expansionary period, some absolute rubbish was voted into public office at all levels in Western Nations ... the outcome has not been a pretty sight and proving quite difficult to clean up.