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johnw
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Everything posted by johnw
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Hi Rande, Are you saying that a Trader should be aware of their emotional state when they make the decision to pull the trigger.
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That is the spirit Phantom ... you write what you feel and think and the Readers can take it or leave it.
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Hi TW, I follow this thread with interest and I think that you and Steve46 are right on the money. There is a gaping discrepancy between the system the Trader has created and his/her sense of self trust. Until this discrepancy is reduced to a seamless sense of self belief, then nothing of value is going to happen. I think that this is the cause behind the enormous failure rate and it is most probably the point at which Chartists turn into system vendors rather than push on to becoming highly successful Traders ...or they blame something external to themselves and give up. This can be a very cruel business unless we commit totally to it. Yes, there may well be deep seated issues to overcome before self belief can be built in sufficient doses to become habit for the Trader in their daily lives. But the pointy bit of the trading exercise occurs when the Trader comes to trade his system and his/her knees turn to jelly. It has nothing to do with the size of his/her gonads, it is all to do with self belief. Somewhere inside the Trader is the realisation that the world they have known will simply not work in the world of trading.
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push on Phantom, push on This is your thread and you need to push on.
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OK Phantom, You are employing the pullback in a trend routine. Excellent, excellent thinking it is a most reliable entry technique with a small easily managed stop loss in my opinion. In fact it is the only technique I use, although I DO NOT use any indicators and I am looking for different qualities and timing. Never the less ...it is what it is. "A pullback in a trend" Push on Phantom ..push on
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Well that is all settled then ..push on Phantom, push on.
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Hi Phantom, Why not just stay with your original intent and do not allow yourself to be distracted. If you quite correctly believe that simplicity is the key and yet you incorporate TA on some sort of ad hoc basis, then I am as curious to follow your posts as I am to learn of "guard rails" Just push on ahead
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Yes please ... at the risk of putting you under pressure, it are the "guard rails" that interest me.
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[tape reading] See Behind the Flow ( Order Flow)
johnw replied to ferasjaara's topic in Technical Analysis
Excellent idea for a thread. Since you are the OP why don't you get the thread up and rolling with your thoughts and maybe a sprinkling of charts. -
Many decades ago when I was a single Student I dated a gorgeous girl such as you describe above. In fact she would attach herself to anything, much to my immense luck
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Hi Phantom, I made this post because I am interested to know why a person with your understanding of price behaviour, employs Indicators that are clearly derivatives of the price itself ... I am not including hammers because they are just name given to price within a certain frame... a descriptive name I will grant you, but never the less it is just a name. I say this because if you were to rename "hammer" to say zebra, it would have absolutely no influence over the movement of the next tic. And the movement of the next tic and the after that and the one after that is what we trade ...it is the game we call trading ...n'est-ce pas As I say, I am looking forward with interest to your post concerning "guard rails" although I still cannot imagine how a person who can describe price behaviour so clearly as you, needs a derivative in any shape or form. This is your thread of course Phantom and it must not be derailed, but I have come to learn along the journey, that anything that distracts a Trader from following price is in fact just that ......a distraction. I know Indicators can be regarded as "training wheels" to be discarded at some later date, but that is akin to giving up drinking tomorrow .... as the song says "tomorrow never comes" I can tell from your subsequent posts that you are very passionate about this subject, which makes me anticipate the "guard rails" even more.
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One of the big decisions a trader must take early on in the game is to decide the frame type and size to be used. Will it be a tick frame, or volume or range or a time frame And will it be 100 tics or 5,000 contracts, or 4 tics or 5 minutes. These two decisions have at great bearing on the outcome of the game. And then a Trader must ask themself .."will I use the much proclaimed 89 tick frame, or will I take a huge risk and round it out to 90 ticks" Once these decisions are taken, it becomes apparent that frames are synthetic interruptions to the flow of contracts through the Exchange at the Bid or at the Ask, solely at the convenience of the Trader. The Close of each frame is a snapshot of the price at the regular intervals that the Trader has prescribed ... and the high and low of the frame may be untradeable depending upon the next tic, but that tic of course lies within the next frame. This is the foundation that TA is built upon, and yet it invokes less discussion than TA itself ... not unlike architecture really, where the colour of the window frames is the source of much discussion, but the foundations hardly rate a mention. So, let us say imagine for a moment that we are top-down Thinkers ... our primary goal of course is to make oodles and oodles of money on a weekly [ and one day on a daily] basis. We repeat this mantra so many times to ourselves that it is chiseled into our DNA. This is an excellent place to be in the game of Trading ... our hearts and minds are solely focused on making lots and lots of money. Therefore it is perfectly consistent with our goal to ask ourselves at EVERY step of our journey .... "is this Indicator or derivative directly going to help me make big money" It is a simple YES / No question ...just like our trades ... we win / we lose How hard can that be ...
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very ingenious indeed
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Top marks to your coding skills Flex1975 ...but what does it all mean.
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Excellent ... I knew you would have an appropriate answer ..."guard rails" is not a term I am familiar with and so I will await your ongoing postings with anticipation.
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hi Phantom, I have just read your narrative with respect to your posted chart. All very clear indeed to the point where even a person like I can follow and clearly understand your thought process leading into your successful trade. What I struggle with, is why you refer to Bolly Bands, 20 ema, MACD, Hammers etc, when it is obvious that you can read price behaviour so clearly.
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Hi Neg, I think that emg has explained exactly where he is coming from.
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Very well put Rande .... you have an excellent manner of describing this process I look forward to your posts.
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15 setups ... how on earth can you cope with 15, and what do you trade that seems to require such a number. good for you.
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Don't be too hard on yourself. This Site is all the better for your input. I have always been a firm believer in shaking the tree occasionally to see what drops to the ground.
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Hi Ingot, You have brought up a very good point in one of your posts and that is "what is fear driven and what is anxiety" If anxiety is the creation of negative outcomes, then perhaps this is the state that faces Traders until they learn to dismantle it. "Winning breeds confidence" is something I am very wary of, since it is also the breeding ground for over confidence. If a mantra is required, I prefer "Stick to the basics, do them well and you cannot go wrong"
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Hi CT, Any question relating to data flow is best directed to your data provider, since there can be subtle distinctions between them. However, broadly speaking, volume charts bundle up the number of contracts traded on the basis that might is right and that it is contracts that create orderflow. On the other hand some people believe that regardless of the number of contracts placed, it are Traders who place them and that is where the importance should lie.... hence we have tic charts. Then again, some people want to reduce the noise by only concerning themselves with bars that have moved 'n' ticks or pips and so Range bars are born. And in the beginning were Traders who felt that they could see the fluidity of the orderflow by slowing it down a bit by bundling movement into time bars. Only you can decide which suits you best. Some Traders can make money from any style of bar, but prefer one type more than the others. And then there are people who can lose their money using any bar, any method and any indicator
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Hi Ingot54 Here is a different bend on the shape of things.... In sport, never give a face or personality to your opponent. They are a "thing" with strengths to be attacked and weaknesses to be exploited, but that is all you allow them. After the match, you can have a beer with them ..in fact they may be your friend ...but during the match they are just a "thing" If you can convince them to treat you as a hostile person during a match, then you "own" them. With trading, you buy and the price rises. You sell and the price falls. The price is just a "thing" .... never give it a personality and it cannot "own" you. The Sportsperson does not see past today's game ... therefore they also get "one shot" The difference becomes less than you think, as personalities are removed.
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Let me get this right SIUYA You live in Aussie and people DID NOT turn up for your parties.... you should have called me I agree with your comments, just change the language and conditions to suit yourself and then they become a part of you. I am just a self taught boy in all this field, but decades ago, when I decided to put more horsepower into something I was doing, I realised that I hated the word "discipline" [ it had attached memories of external enforcement which I did not care for at all] and so ever since I have used the word "habit" which I regard as self initiated... in fact I love the word "habit" The results from that one seemingly insignificant alteration were spectacular to say the least and lead to a whole slew of alterations ..... but "habit" was the tipping point. What does "disease" conjure up for us ...all sorts of dreadful medical conditions, I imagine. Now try "dis----ease"....and see what you get. To me this comes up as a state that is outside that of balance, ease etc ... to others it may seem like a play on words, but to me it takes on an entire meaning ... I am out of balance and I do not like it. What has all this to do with trading .. A great deal really IMO. It is the EDGE that so many people seem to be seeking these days but are looking for outside themselves. One of the best places to watch all this mumbo jumbo in action is in the finals and semis of pro tennis ..... you can actually see into the minds of the Players [some are more open than others] and watch how the changes in feelings translates into a change of body movement.
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