Cory2679

We may just have to agree to disagree. Would you consider my contributions on the subject of theoretical physics and cosmology equally as important as those of someone such as Stephen Hawking? I wouldn't.

I never claimed anyone was generally better or worse than anyone else. I never spoke of anyone being a greater or lesser trader than anyone else (although of course I'm not ignorant to the fact that I am indeed likely not the greatest trader of all). I was speaking purely of contribution/importance to this forum.

Who here considers bobcollett (or me, for that matter) equally as important to this forum as Kiwi (or thalestrader, for that matter)?

Well, I haven't been very consistent updating this log or posting to the RCIRT thread lately. I think I just got a little tired of posting. I will provide a real update here eventually. I have my usual ups and downs, but on balance, things are going well and I'm making progress...I am confident and optimistic. I'm making this post because I read something yesterday...it was one of those things that I fealt was practially written for me...so I thought I'd share it here...it's the last page in Raghee Horner's book called "Forex Trading for Maximum Profit." I've attached it to this post. I'm not so much on a holy-grail indicator pursuit or anything, but deep down, I know I do expect myself to catch every move, and when I don't, I get really upset...and it leads to entering on every little wiggle so that I don't miss a possible move. I know in my head that not every move is for me, but I don't think I truly know it in my "heart," so to speak. Someone said this in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread...I can't remember who...I just have it in my notes...which I think is pretty important/relevant to the spirit of this post: "If the trade is not completely obvious, then don't enter. You don't need to trade every single movement that a chart presents. If your reward is not equal to or greater than your risk, don't enter. If you doubt anything, then don't enter. These are all mental parameters that keep you out of more trouble than you can handle. To stick to these rules is the test."

Update: It appears that Kiwi is no longer banned. I just hope we haven't seen the last of him.

Ha! Another Cor(e)y! :thumbs up:

Holy crap! This is really, really disappointing. I can only assume it was over his problem with Rande. That's pretty stupid, TradersLab...he simply read Rande's book and was very critical and shared that with the community...I, for one, am appreciative and value Kiwi's opinion/input. Maybe Rande's a sponsor or something?? :doh: Of course, to be fair, maybe I don't know the whole story. Who knows. But from what was on the public forum, I think that the ban is completely absurd. I'd say "let Kiwi come back!" but I feel certain, after being banned, he has no desire to come back.

Another very key part of the strategy is that when he's long and has lost really bad, to then say, wait, I meant I was short, and I actually had a big profit. This goes a long way to help eliminate the enormous drawdowns one would expect with a strategy that's built around averaging losers. To see what I'm talking about, starting with this post, follow it very carefully at least until you reach Tams's post... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/3/my-es-emini-s-p-500-a-7705-42.html#post95808 EDIT: And his reactions to the criticism shortly after say it all...

During significant drawdowns in equity, a totally systematic trader could/should reduce market exposure by scaling back the overall leverage. Something as simple as that could turn what may appear at first to be a marginally profitable or unprofitable system into a profitable one. ...not speaking from much experience...just hypothetically...

I admittedly have not read through this entire thread, but I did want to say that in my experience, the trading psychology books (ie Douglas) advocate the very same thing that I quoted you saying here! I disagree with the notion that rather than addressing psychological issues, people should just man up and shut up, and push through. While it is certainly one way to go, I feel like it's not the best way. I think the best way is to address and attempt to resolve the real psychological issues. To me, it's like driving with all flat tires...you can just keep on going and push through it, not addressing the problem directly, but wouldn't it be a much better idea to stop, inflate the tires to the proper pressure, then continue on your way? It's certainly going to be a hell of a lot smoother journey!

Stikky Stock Charts

The CIA had an opening for an assassin. After all of the background checks, interviews, and testing were done there were three finalists — two men and one woman. For the final test, the CIA agents took one of the men to a large metal door and handed him a gun. "We must know that you will follow your instructions, no matter what the circumstances. Inside this room you will find your wife sitting in a chair. You have to kill her.” The first man said, “You can’t be serious. I could never shoot my wife." The agent replies, “Then you’re not the right man for this job." The second man was given the same instructions. He took the gun and went into the room. All was quiet for about five minutes. Then the agent came out with tears in his eyes. “I tried, but I can’t kill my wife.” The agent replies, “You don’t have what it takes. Take your wife and go home.” Finally, it was the woman’s turn. Only she was told to kill her husband. She took the gun and went into the room. Shots were heard, one shot after another. They heard screaming, crashing, banging on the walls. After a few minutes, all was quiet. The door opened slowly and there stood the woman. She wiped the sweat from her brow and said, “You guys didn’t tell me the gun was loaded with blanks. I had to beat him to death with the chair.”

Here's my entry for the 2011 year-end contest... Dow: 11,891.93 S&P: 1,286.12 Nasdaq: 2,700.08 (Today's closing prices.)

I just watched this video and enjoyed it/would recommend it. I tend to agree that people, in general, don't give randomness enough credit. However, I'm of the opinion that it's also naive to go to the other extreme and attribute virtually everything to randomness/"luck." I think there's a balance...it's important not to totally discount knowledge and understanding, talent, skill, preparation, sweat and hard work, etc. While it's interesting to compare a group of people flipping coins to investors, sports teams, etc., it's not the same thing. Investors, athletes, etc. are not flipping coins! They're not participating in something with a random outcome (unless, of course, you subscribe to the random walk hypothesis, which I do not). While sure, "luck" plays a role, so does talent, skill, and so on (perhaps equally or more so). One of many examples he gives is a sports team not improving once the coach is replaced...suggesting that their winning streak (which had been struck) was just a result of randomness/luck in the first place. However, to me, just as viable (or more viable) an explanation could be that something has indeed changed (psychological and/or physical) that has interrupted the winning streak...and simply replacing the coach isn't a magic fix. Of course, you can't "prove" it either way...it's just theory...all you can prove is that if such and such things were random, you could get similar results. That doesn't prove that said things are random. All I'm suggesting is that it's not one extreme or the other. I think elements of both are true. It's not black and white...it's a grey area...as is virtually everything.

I think it would be an interesting study to find a person (or a group of people) that were proven successful chart readers/traders (probably a fairly difficult task!) and have them trade a chart of randomly generated upticks and downticks for a period of time and see they how they did relative to their usual performance... Anyone know if this has actually already been done?

MightyMouse, From reading your posts and your market philosphy (and not just from this thread), I have to ask...why do you even bother? (and I mean this with all due respect) What I get from your posts is that it's virtually impossible to make money in the markets consistently over the long-run...unless you're some kind of super-trader or just happen to fall onto the right side of luck...like someone who flips a coin and gets heads 10 times in a row (and even still...it's unlikely that that person will flip heads another 10 times...just as unlikely as it was the first time...their first 10 heads gives them no advantage into the next flip). I'm not saying whether I think your philosophy is right or wrong...I suspect it falls somewhere in between...like with all of us. Just curious why you bother pursuing this vocation. Also, I see it often and I always think this so I thought I'd throw it out there...in my opinion, it's not relevant to compare traders like us to Goldman Sachs, etc...they are in an entirely different game...apples and oranges. -Cory

UPDATE: Order canceled...

Potential UJ long...

UPDATE 4: PT's 1 & 2 filled...holding for PT3...I've moved my stop down... FINAL UPDATE: Final 1/3 taken out for some profit...

UPDATE 3: Still hangin' in there...I'm heading to bed so I'm going to leave it overnight...I have my stop-loss and profit target orders in...

UPDATE: Order filled...stop moved tight... UPDATE 2: Stop at break-even (+1 tick)...

Potential EJ short...

I actually changed my mind at the last second before I shut down and put on the UJ short...but took BE on it... I left it overnight and got on this morning at around 6AM Eastern Time to see that price had reached my BE point and retraced...I immediately moved my stop to BE and was taken out shortly after... I got to it just in time! Lucky me. Actually, price had already risen above my entry when I got on, but had fallen just back below...just for enough time to let me move my stop before resuming its climb. No NY today...I'll be back this evening...

Orders canceled...no trades tonight... I just found out I won't be able to trade NY tomorrow...I guess I'll be back tomorrow evening for Tokyo...

And if you hate Amazon.com for some reason, that's no reason not to enter the contest...you can always sell your gift card on ebay or a site like plasticjungle.com... EDIT: Ok, it looks like plastic jungle doesn't list Amazon.com as one of their accepted retailers, but I'm sure there's something like it out there that does.