idetsc

ariel, How about just buying? If it's really the "holy grail" you may regret, to be miserly about the $150... Regards, idetsc

ant, thank you so much for geneurosly providing these stats. I am referring to your quote above. May I ask you if you could provide us with stats regarding the probability of reaching multiples of the IB? I often read that the 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 range extentions provide a kind of support/resistance. So since without any doubt the IB is very important, I thought it could also be valueable to know how significantly the IB is exceeded, respectively on which magnitude. Thanks again and kindest regards, idetsc

FulcrumTrader, thank you for your informational videos and posts. Maybe I have overlooked the answer to my question so hopefully you can appreciate this. I believe you use the regular BidAsk CD, but I've seen also UpDownTick and UpDownTick with continuation mode which means for the latter, that the following volume, after the initial UpDownTick, is assigned to the side of the last direction. If the last direction was up then all the following volume at this current price will be assigned to the ask and vice versa. If am not mistaken. Occasionally I see aggressive up moves with confirmatory CD (BidAsk) and then the price pause a little bit in a range, but the CD (UpDownTick) makes a quite meaningful down move comparatively to the price move. I thought maybe 'professionals' are buying warily the downticks in this consolidation range (accumulating) after the up move and then selling (distributing) into the next up move without great influence. After having accumulated circa 90% or so, they lift the offer and buy the last portion aggressively to revive the up move to lure out the 'amateurs' until they can't resist and buy into higher prices. Hopefully you noticed this too and could also give some of your interpretation for this 'unverified supposition' I would say. Thank you again very much!

Hi Carl, I maybe wrong though, but could it be that you contradicted with your statement what electroniclocal said? Could this larger time frame/shorter time frame thing also be the same cud as the before (#20) mentioned bull/bear-thing which mikeynero questioned correctly? How about a further explanation attempt (at best impartial) regarding this? I am very curious to read if you have taken this for granted like the majority, or have spend some time to think about this. You'll most probably be taken aback. Wish you all the best. Regards,

Great question, you are correct by not taking this bull/bear-cud for true. With this kind of scepticism you'll sort out very quick those that haven't grasp the price discovery process and capitalize from this, by taking the appropriate actions in the market. I completely understand your post. A lot of the so called authors really think they have something to share, but only reveil oneself at least as an absolute nitwit. It can be very difficult for a newbie to have confidence in ones opinion, considering the great majority who delude the public, deliberately or reckless with this. Be very aware everytime you think: "Everyone is believing this, this must be true." But I believe this can't happen to you, which is very good. Keep your path, I wish you all the best. Regards,

Hello BlowFish, thank you for your useful post. Referring to macdfx's useful link to program trading in post #106, I'll agree with you when you write: "Do not pay much attention to the who is operating and why". The important part is: How much at all? And this is obvious, because even if I know their (the who) intentions (the why) like e.g. program traders, I will never know their possible impact in that unique moment as they begin to act. Like looking on some ants conquering one domino. Can they turn the domino to the right side and will this have enough follow through. How about the other ants on the opposite side? Even when we can identify program trading 80% on average, what does that mean? You will have 80% success? So, when program trading kicks in, they make their money in a couple of seconds or minutes and once $prem is in balance they are out. And then? What about follow through? Do I really need to know when e.g. program trading kicks in, since the program trading are reputed to be accountable for only 10% of the volume? Do I even have to know if it's the big paper or anyone else with allegedly influence who has entered the game? How much worth is a 80% success rate of identification the correct party at that particular moment when they too, naturally don't have a 100% success rate? As long as I can locate/identify the effect by recognizing the aggressivity/intensity in a timely manner, I really don't need to know who is exactly most probably liable or the cause for that, just because it is always another unique moment. I would say, the most important part is "context" and not "identification". I can set an exact context for each price, when I can determine my own (although discretionary) extreme levels. By the way, we are doing this all the time in our lives. But what am I gonna do, if I can identify who is now in the game for sure, but can neither talk to him nor knowing how much his impact will be? Put simply, what is a local gonna do when he/she is long and paper selling is coming in? a) sell everything (to whom?) b) to pit oneself against (how long?) c) buy as much as he can (how much can he?) And at least to put it in real estate language, IMO everything amounts to just one: prime location PS: Although someone could argue that this thread is still on topic, I am very happy with the amount of insightful contributions. Thanks!

Everything I really have to say to your IMHO, hazardous attempt to make money in the markets is: that it is absolutely haphazard. This is exactly the reason why I and brokers like you. Just the foundation of a well growing business... Please don't be met in person. This is the mildest way you can get an well-meant advise. Markets are not all guns and roses and by far not fearing poker players! "Ten thousand hours of practice is required to achieve the level of mastery associated with being a world-class expert — in anything. In study after study, of composers, basketball players, fiction writers, ice skaters, concert pianists, chess players, master criminals, and what have you, this number comes up again and again. Ten thousand hours is the equivalent to roughly three hours per day, or twenty hours per week, of practice over ten years. Of course, this doesn’t address why some people don’t seem to get anywhere when they practice, and why some people get more out of their practice sessions than others. But no one has yet found a case in which true world-class expertise was accomplished in less time. It seems that it takes the brain this long to assimilate all that it needs to know to achieve true mastery.” [source: Daniel Levitin : “This is Your Brain on Music”] PS: When you get hurt really bad by the markets, you can come back and read this thread again, and then be honest by asking yourself: "....mmhh, which of the post had the most potential to open my eyes?"

Hello to all contributors! I would like to thank everyone who contributet to this thread and would like to draw your attention to my thought after reading this and thank UrmaBlume for the quote in his book. Imagine you where on a poker table, sourrounded by e.g. 3 of the best players in the world. You can analysed them hundreds of hour's on video or live, by BigBlue alike computers or any other technique full of expectation and you still never will spot their intentions so much, that you can gain an consistent edge, although they are only 3. Why? They will deceive you. Everything they reveal will look like you discoverd it yourself. At that moment you are trapped. (Thank's, next please. Ohh no, let me try again please because now I figured it out? Sure? Yes,... bang! Another try? Ohh let me take a look at my pocket,... yes please.... bang, bang, bang.) YOU HAVE TO understand that: -these players have an enourmous pressure, more than you with your one lot and 10 tick SL after three losses. -their success is measured on customers order (e.g. urgency) and not VWAP only as many think -everytime they get an customer order, they have to manage it under certain condtions which will naturally couse different approaches. -they really want you, to track them - but only to mislead you and get their job done. -they are playing very often among themselves, competing for... YOU! Gosh! You dream about beeing a trader in a big bank? You know what? A lot of the "big boys" envy you (of course for you entity as a private trader)! You don't have to trade, they have! When you read about the "n-body problem", you will realize that only one..., yes only one trader in the world can turn the market with only one contract. While they are stuffing billions in computers, and hiring very very smart people to get an edge for their effort on trying NOT to cause impact on their transactions with seemingly consistent success, YOU are trying to front run an event which is intended to at best, not occur at all. Kind of reversed, isn't it? Demotivated? Well, don't worry. “In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity. Albert Einstein

In addition to flimbo's very helpful HLC bar chart indicator you can get a Volume Price Analysis (VPA) indicator for NT and ToS. Where? Search on Google, it's easy to find. Why am I not posting the link? I think the info that there is one available is enough for people who are really interested in this kind of analysis. For the people who want to have everything gift-boxed (somewhere above, someone even asked about an expert advisor for mt4 or for NinjaTrader source... :crap: - ... Just really think about that, only one minute....:doh: ) Show some commitment and do your own research and foremost LEARN the principle by diving into it. Believe me this will save you a lot of money. Tom Williams learned this by only looking at volume and price bar, decades ago. I would think, that this is the reason why he traded successfully. The TG software is IMHO for people who already understood the principle 100% for their comfort. Or maybe for lazy people, looking for an expensive way throwing money out of the window. And by money, I don't mean the purchase price! Keep doing it, there is 24/7 someone who is catching every , me included. Register at the TG site and you'll get invitations on a regularly basis. Maybe you can get even the Book "Master the Markets" for free. If not, I would suggest to buy it for $99. Read it at least 3-5 times as it isn't easy to grasp. (ask Gavin from TG how many times he read the book) If then you are still interested in it, THEN buy it, even for $ 6.000 because it will save you a lot of work! PS: Maybe someone will post his search result right after my post... remember my words which are all MHO.