Marko23

At 2nd target My last example for today.

A 3rd push down is still possible. It's improbable now.

Long one degree smaller Break even At 1st target.

Long ended as break even. This was the better trade, but started to early for me.

EUR/USD really soon now Long one degree smaller 3rd wave larger than 1st wave, there may be a 5th wave!

Next attempt to turn up Count to five at the end of a larger movement

EUR/USD may turn, finally I'll quit now.

EUR/USD below Friday's support B/E Out with +10, takes too long for me.

EUR/USD with possible support from Friday Triggered Stopped New 3-day low, Stop ok.

EUR/USD next Long chance B/E Out at 106, waiting.

EUR/USD Long chance Triggered B/E

EUR/USD left two wedges

EUR/JPY may leave long lasting chop zone

Thanks for supporting Thales' hint. Currently these wedges fascinate me. I overlooked them far too often.

They really stay the same. The "inventor" of Gaussian coppula always warned, what would (not could) happen, if too many put this model into practice.

Hmmm ... most times yes. But it remains a market with many traders and big volume. Sometimes it proceeds like a communcation protocol, price moves to S as a message, climbs a little distance as an ACK, comes back as a message asking for confirmation, climbs agains as ACK or falls thru as NAK. So traders may be communicating to each other using price as a channel and R/S as a protocol.

Never had that impression. You give me something to think about, that's great!

Thanks for taking your time for this answer. I have to admit that very often in my answers many years of thinking in several programming languages shows up. These languages mostly have strict yes/no decisions and if a programmer forgets to consider an "else" somewhere, quality control or a customer will point him to this bug. The decision to put on a single trade is also of this kind, but I learned to live with statistical reasoning, because I can measure an expectancy over 100 or more trades. Perhaps it is the word "theory" which spuriously leads me to expect a forecast with 100% certainty. It may also be the modality in which it was presented by Neely in his book and newsletter. How does one measure the expectancy of a flat or double zigzag? Everyone is different from its cousins. Thanks again, I will have to think more about it (and post a little less).

Yes, it is in deed. One of the many reasons, one cannot draw a prognosis from this theory without alternate counts. EW remains a kind of rolling forecast.

" a larger thrid wave down " would have raised an alarm for me, because wave 3 cannot be the smallest of... That's hindsight of cause.

The setup is the same as in the preceding examples 4. the measuring rod If you don't like the fibo stuff during the heat of daytrading or your chart program doesn't have an easy to use tool for, here is a simple way to draw a subset of the targets without any complexity. From the 1st example take only 150% and 200% extension, rods in blue From the 2nd example take only 100% extension, rods in green From the 3nd example take only 100% extension, rods in light brown. This is known as a measured move. When price proceeds you make a copy of a rod and move it to the right. All these alternatives are nothing more than educated guesses. The market proceeds in its own way and we try to go with the flow. One should never insist on those guesses. If anyone wants to know how the "magic numbers" are calculated, please ask. One can use them without the knowledge.

The setup is the same as in the preceding examples 3. extension like an Elliott wave One takes the 1st move X to 1 as 100% reference but extends it from point 2 to some "magical numbers" There a three target zones; the market in this example moves through all zones in an uptrend. One can define more. To be continued...

The setup (repeated) 2. actio = reactio One takes the 2nd move 1 to 2 as 100% reference and extends it above 1 to some "magical numbers" There a four target zones; the market in this example moves through all zones in an uptrend. To be continued...

The setup 1. extension of first thrust One takes the 1st move X to 1 as 100% reference and extends it to some "magical numbers" There a three zones; one can define more and go over the top easily. The market in this example moves through all zones in an uptrend. To be continued...

Hi, during the week there was a question about setting up targets with the Thales' method. I want to share four alternatives to project targets from a 123 setup. All have their merits and none of them may work, because the market always takes the path of least resistance like hikers in this drawing. I'll use an EUR/USD daily chart from last year as a drawing canvas, so the example doesn't look totally artifical. To be continued...