throughthemud

Thanks for the feedback. I wanted to split that off into another thread so that newcomers won't get lost in this thread as it becomes several pages long. I just recently joined this forum and find it hard to get into the discussion of long standing threads. I'll try to keep most of it in this thread though. EW analysis is difficult in real time but the more you do it the better you get so posting my real time analysis here is helping me out too especially since I can't go back and lie to myself that I was right all along. btw new EUR/USD target ~1.4767 ( wave v equality with wave i )

I created a new thread "Trading GBP/USD with Elliott Waves and RSI" to demonstrate what I was discussing earlier. Please take a look.

This chart shows my best count on the GBP/USD right now but I'm not highly confident in it. Form is always more important than your wave count so I will continue to monitor it for signs this analysis is incorrect. This chart is of GBP/USD hourly with RSI-7. I have labeled the waves and drawn lines from the bottom of corrections to RSI. Corrective waves develop in 3s so never determine the waves has ended until you see 3 subdivisions. Notice how RSI almost never gets oversold until that 3rd subdivision. The last two areas I drew lines on seem to be inconsistent with this but notice that the first subdivision develops in 5 waves. This means the trend has either changed or it is only the first subdivision of wave (iv). My alternate count is that what I have labeled (i) and (iii) is actually (a) and © of a double zigzag. Time will tell but so far that looks less likely. Lastly notice how overbought RSI was at the end of what I've labeled wave iii. This is pretty common for 3rd waves since they are usually extended. When this happens the 5th wave will not get as overbought even though it reaches a higher price extreme. Thanks for reading. All comments and questions are appreciated.

i just realized my earlier targets for the euro are all wrong if my wave count is correct! wave 3 is never the shortest which means if my count is correct the euro will start a massive decline before 1.4780. I tried looking for errors in my count but i'm still confident it is correct. the only other possibility I see is that the wave we are currently in is an extension so we will see 2 new highs instead of just 1.

Thanks for your question. You can ignore the moving averages as they are automatically drawn on fxstreet charts which is where I get the charts I'm labeling from. I do, however, use RSI-7. I need to better identify how this can help me, but as far as my current trading goes I use it to help find the ends of corrective waves and therefore the beginning of impulse waves. Mostly it helps me find the patience to sit through the corrective waves because I tend to overtrade if left with only a price chart in front of me. I will consider this further and maybe throw up a couple charts with it tomorrow.

My first target has been hit but after doing some analysis I don't think that could be the high. I think we're currently in wave iv of (v). If this is true then that means wave i and iii of (v) are approximately equal so v could be very strong. If the current movement goes much below the peak of wave i as I have it labeled then the count would be invalidated but I think that would mean just mean the upward movement will be even stronger. Targets 1.4795 is about .618 times waves (i) to (iii) 1.4845 would be equality between (A) and © 1.4867 would be about 1.618 times wave i and iii as I have it labeled and the base of the movement last September

price action on euro has been corrective so i'm still looking for another high. pound has been performing as expected. i'll try to get a chart or two up later

price action looks too strong. i'm switching targets on eur to 1.4685 and 1.4795 (if 1.4700 is broken)

I'm looking for turnarounds on the euro at about 1.4655 (wave v equality with wave i) and about 1.4683 (wave (v) equality with wave (i)) I do not expect usd index or pound to break their previous counts.

government has plenty of competition you can just move to a different state or country or vote in a different politician. i'm not saying we should fix salaries except perhaps in government entities or companies that got government money but the government didn't approve those salaries anyway. they said we'll just let private industry handle it because we know they'll do that right thing and they gave billions of dollars in bonuses anyway. you can thank government for this crisis because they stopped regulating and just believed the companies would do the right thing on their own. there are plenty of great government programs and their are plenty of great businesses. i can give you tons of examples of horrible businesses and horrible politicians and government programs. what it all comes down to is there's not one simple answer. the government isn't always evil and doesn't always fail and the same is true for business but we should regulate and hold people accountable. 100% government would be a disaster and 0% government would be a disaster. probably still holds true for 20/80

the problem there's not really a lot of competition in business. companies take huge profits even after paying ridiculously huge salaries and bonuses to their execs. what happens when they make mistakes? they charge customers more. produce lower quality products, lay people off or THEY TAKE MONEY FROM THE TAX PAYERS! haven't you seen what's been going on? lots of businesses run off credit just like the government does. GM did it and was losing money for about 8 years straight and would've kept going just the same if the credit crisis never happened i agree with your statement following that though. government should be involved in oversight for the most part. politicians are sleaze bags just as you say but a lot of corporate execs are too. i'm in total agreement with you about government but you have turned 100% blind eye to what corporations are doing.

ok i see. it probably is the router then. if your netgear was good for a few years i would just try another. i think i had a netgear before that was great and I never had any problems with it. i'm using linksys now and it seems fine

if you want to improve yourself you have to change yourself. its that obvious. not just in trading but everything in life. improve yourself or change yourself into what it takes to be a good trader or just dont trade

linksys performs pretty well for me but i'm still doubtful it's all the router's fault. you could try a new router and if you have the same problem just return it and get a new isp.

USD index 9/14 at about 1730 GMT btw my labels are shown as intermediate degree (1)(2)(3) minor 1 2 3 minute (i) (ii) (iii) minuette i ii iii

everything you said about government is also applicable to big business

we have nonconfirmation on the euro when it went past 1.4634 but i'm still holding out hope until the dollar breaks the count which will be soon anyway if it's going to happen. i'm still quite profitable because of the pound play. the euro made a nonconfirmation of Primary 1 way back on july 15th 2008. i'm hoping this is equivalent to that because the dollar count is clear.

perhaps not. i just figured anyone with sufficient knowledge of elliott waves would be able to see what i'm talking about as long as they are also following the same pair. i will include some charts from here on out. looking at the newest developments 2:22 GMT Monday it appears wave (v) did end and now we're working on downside. looking for confirmation on EUR/USD below 1.4500 and on GBP/USD below 1.6453

There are many ways to determine the probability that it will bounce back. Use technical indicators and trendlines. I personally use elliott wave analysis and rsi. None are sure ways of telling what is going to happen but they greatly increase your odds of making the right call.

I read this too. The wave structure is telling us the market is due for a fall soon too.

Turns out that was wave i. I was able to get out of the trade with a small profit after it was just an extended wave. There was another very clear wave iii that followed and a somewhat unclear but I think valid wave v. Wave (i) was 177 pips and (v) has been 134 pips or 75% of wave (i). This is close enough for me to believe it's over. A drop below 1.4500 on EUR/USD will confirm this. If that has happened that would be the end of wave 5 of © and the end of primary wave 2 and that means the dollar will shoot back up even higher than it was before. I am again positioned short in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and I've gained enough pips that I put my stops in at a profit. Since the wave count is not quite clear this could still be wave ii of (v).

No, it seems like you're trying to force it to be something that it's not. Volume is definitely lower at that time but EUR/USD is still the 2nd highest traded pair during the Japanese session.

I trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD using elliott wave analysis. I was wondering who else out here is doing the same thing. Maybe we can compare notes and counts to help keep each other honest. Right now my euro analysis puts us at Wave (v) of 5 of © ended at 1700 GMT or Wave i of (v) of 5 of © It is satisfactory as all of (v) of 5 because it is .618 x (i) and I count 5 subdivisions. I'm currently positioned short until my wave count is broken.

I would definitely go with FXCM Micro. They have the best spreads in the business and excellent execution. I've tried a few brokerages but I've never looked back since I started with FXCM. FX Trading Station 2 (their trading platform) is great. I have a micro account and a standard account through them. The micro is 400:1 leverage and the standard is 200:1. The spreads and the execution are not as good on standard as the micro but it's still great compared to a lot of other brokers. If you've never traded live before I would stick with the micro until you've been profitable for at least a month.