throughthemud

This shows current price action for the euro on 15 minute time frame. The fib level is where wave (v) is 0.618 times wave (i) which it has already reached. It is more common for a fifth wave to equal it's corresponding first wave especially since this is a fifth of a fifth but it doesn't look like the final wave could go much higher. The price targets I listed on the last post refer to where wave v equals and is 0.618 times wave i. By my current count wave (iv) was shorter than I expected but I'm not an expert at this yet so maybe it's normal. Whether this is the end or just more of the wave (iv) correction I'll switch to short at the top and look for warning signs on the way down.

just got my first look at the euro today and it looks like the high is almost end Most likely targets 1) 1.4858 2) 1.4823

I started off trading stocks and the reason I switched to forex are no commissions and less regulation. I didnt start out with very much money so it was harder for me to get past the commission in order to make a profit so I always trade stocks that were not worth anymore than $30 and then after I day traded for a few days my stock account was locked due to an SEC rule prohibiting day trading with accounts less than $25000. Especially as a beginner I found forex much easier to trade and be profitable in. The leverage can certainly work against you though. Play very cautious and safe and you'll be alright.

Not much time to trade today and probably won't be able to tomorrow either but I just took a look and it appears the euro may be done correcting. I was looking for a drop roughly to 1.45 but the correction can be counted as complete. I think we should now be looking for a final push higher before the ultimate dollar uptrend. The pound looks like it has ended it's 3rd of a 3rd downward movement and while the euro reaches new highs I would expect the pound to have a good retracement seeing as how the wave 2 was complex (guideline of alternation). I expect to have more time to put up some charts and do some trading tonight otherwise I will continue late tomorrow.

hey dave, welcome to the forum. I just started here about a week ago but I've been trading forex for a while. Hope to see you in the forex lab often. My best advice for any high leverage market is to trade small and very cautiously until you are profitable for a few weeks straight. I doubt you'll take this advice (I know I didn't) but it's very important especially since you didnt have much success in trading stocks. Get a micro account so you can trade very small contract sizes until you get the hang of it.

Last Weeks Trading Synopsis EUR/USD Trading went very much as expected and ended very profitably. I got stopped out after the diagonal triangle pattern did not develop and falling back on my analysis seems to be working out. GBP/USD Trading went very well in the beginning of the week but the last day I took losses because of some major mistakes on my part. I was preventing myself from properly analyzing the pound by expecting too strong a correlation between it and the euro. They kind of flow together but you can't trade long based on that. After price charts from my broker come back online I will post my EoW analysis and forecast. After taking a couple days off my analysis is always much clearer.

It doesn't matter to me personally whether his indicators work or whether he trades by them or not. If he posts a trading report I will not attempt to analyze it because I trade by EW and that works for me so I don't need anything else. However, there are a lot of people starting out trading who are interested. In truth I'm not even entering this discussion for them but just for my own amusement. Rumples and Razorboy are very emotional about this and quickly berate anyone with questions. In my experience this is very telling of the truth. The only other option is they are just d-bags. Either way it amuses me to call them out.

I'm sorry I didn't realize getting a trading report was more difficult than grade 5 math! I don't need your trading system. I've doing very well on my own. Why are you so emotional about this guy when you yourself don't even use these indicators? Emotional people are not good traders for obvious reasons. There are lots of indicators already out there that are standard for every broker and there's lots of good information on how to use them. Those aren't the holy grail of trading and neither are rumple's but you have a much higher chance of success when you're starting out if you have something that is already well known and easily researchable.

trend channel looks in place from wave (iii) high i labeled before on euro but unfortunately i will be out today. i'll be trading again sunday night probably

looks like what I was afraid to admit was happening on the pound became reality.

This is my best count for what is going on in the pound right now. My previous targets still stand whether or not this count is right. The only reason I have trouble with this count is that if the larger degree movement is impulsive then wave 4 overlaps wave 1 more than I'm comfortable with. On the other hand if this is the start of an impulsive movement upward I can't find a workable wave count to support that plus the dollar is bottoming so I don't see the GBP/USD having much upside potential left. Until the count becomes more clear I'll keep trading short term.

hey zdo, It started out when I stumbled across a book by Robert Balan called Elliott Wave Principle Forex. The best book by far though is Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and AJ Frost. I've read this book multiple times and find it incredibly helpful. Elliott wave analysis can seem overwhelming at first but it pays off in the end. Hopefully you'll find it just as interesting as I have. Robert Prechter also started a company called Elliott Wave International and I believe they have a basic starter guide on their website. Check that out and feel free to ask me any questions.

GBP/USD just completed a 5 wave structure downward. Previously I had seen this as a triangle developing and continuing along that idea this would be the end of the triangle. We should now see a strong upward movement to bare minimum 1.6495 but more likely 1.6536 or even 1.6604. I will do more analysis and post another chart later. The EUR/USD continues it's painful uptrend. You can easily trade both sides of it right now but be wary because when the end comes it will be painful to be on the wrong side.

Well I can't tell how you develop your price targets but it's definitely not rare for someone who is good at trading (retail or professional). If you check out my fx elliotticians thread I've set a few targets that have been hit to the pip. In any case, keep up the good work!

I haven't read much of this thread (some of the beginning and now this page) but I think showing a trade report from your broker is the only real way to settle this.

it's likely we have one more small drop on eur and gbp to complete a 5th wave down

It appears we are just beginning wave v of a diagonal triangle (in the euro)! This means the end is very near. Last night my price target of 1.4767 was hit. My count shows that to be the top of wave iii of the diagonal triangle. My previous price target of 1.4846 should be the end of the entire movement. I'm holding long and will short at that point. This looks like the major turnaround I was talking about before!

it's quite obvious the EUR and GBP are in for some immediate gains but I'm still half asleep so I'll get back with charts later

Quick post. I just went long on the GBP. I don't feel comfortable with a long play on EUR so I'll wait for it to go up a bit and then short it. I went long on the pound since the current correction looks to be ending and wave c = 0.618 * wave a. I'll add a chart to show what I'm talking about later.

I'm having trouble with the idea that the euro would end it's uptrend where it's at now because it would be right at the tip of wave (A). Equality (A) = © (a wave principle guideline) would be at about 1.4846. Also on the monthly chart of EUR/USD RSI-7 is about 67.78 which is not quite oversold but it's getting close. There is also a lot of upper shadows for resistance at around that level. I did more analysis on the intermediate scale to come up with this alternate count that could take us higher. By this count we are in wave v of an extended wave (iii) so we'll top soon, drop to roughly 1.4500 and then make one final push to the top. This would also give the GBP/USD time to make a new high that I've been thinking about but didn't think was possible. In any case I'll keep posting on shorter term plays and watch as things develop.

The downside on GBP/USD is being realized and I wanted to explain my reason for the previous forecast. My two top wave counts show a (b) wave triangle as in the previous chart or a series of 1st and 2nd waves. That means the movement was either wave © or wave i of (iii). In either case it would have been five waves which had just completed when I posted that statement. Now for the immediate future beyond what I stated in my previous post. If the drop is in 5 waves and ends near or below its origin I will not buy it. I will wait for a 3 wave bullish movement and then sell sell sell! because that will signal the start of a much largest bearish movement. On the other hand if the bearish movement is only 3 waves it's time to buy buy buy! and expect much stronger uptrend to above 1.6600. I'm not willing to switch to bearishness yet on the EUR/USD but the waves can be counted as complete and if it is then we can expect a MAJOR change in trend on the primary scale! Not a good time to be bullish unless you're watching it carefully!!!

i'm looking at immediate downside in the GBP/USD. if the bottom of the triangle is breached. I will look for even more downside otherwise continue to look for more highs

this is definitely a good technique thales. I have such a hard time with being patient for this kind of thing though. looking at my chart of gbp/usd i see 4 tests in a row though i expect it to break out soon

hey ant, could you be more specific about some of the ways you determine market tempo and the ease of the market the break a resistance/support? thanks

I use elliott wave analysis. it helps you determine the trend on every time scale and gives you price targets for reversals. I trade on 15min, 1hr, 4hr and daily charts. The scale at which the move main move is occurring greatly determines its length. The guidelines of the wave principle are also excellent help. it's all a matter of trading based on what is most likely to occur.