throughthemud

Yes you did answer one question but what about the other two far more important questions?

A 5 wave pattern has developed for a possibly complete wave c. It went up faster than I thought which makes me doubt it is the first wave of wave c but I'm still trading as if it was because RSI-7 on the daily chart is just above 50 and I think it should hit 70 before the resumption of the downtrend. I'll be watching this play out as I'm not completely confident in what I'm seeing.

Marketwavez, Please start your own thread and stop posting in this one since you won't provide explanation or answer criticism. I can only see your posts harming people interested in the wave principle. This thread is about sharing and learning from each other not seeing how many numbers you can fit on a chart or how fast you can post charts.

marketwavez, On your euro charts I've noticed that you have mixed degrees of waves on your count. The black and light gray numbers are mixed between two different degrees which has messed up your count for the blue numbers. Waves of smaller degree generally shouldn't be larger than waves of a larger degree. In your midterm chart of the euro what makes you think this is an A wave when you take the entire trend in perspective? It looks like a 5 wave pattern following a 3 wave pattern to me. At best it would be an A wave of much larger degree but taking into account the previous wave it cannot be a 3rd wave. Last thing I'm wondering how you got your target (1.4510) on your latest euro chart.

Look at the charts I posted before yours then look at your charts... my charts have current market data from the close on thursday and none of yours do. that is what i'm asking for along with text

Marketwavez, Please post explanation and current market levels. What you have posted can be seen as predictive but when you post what everyone already knows has happened instead of your forecast it's not seen as genuine and I would prefer it wasn't in this thread.

Here is my current count and what I'm looking at for the beginning of next week. I think wave b (circle) is currently in progress but it will probably end fairly soon. I'm not currently in a position but I'm looking for the wave b (circle) to end at about 1.4250 - 1.4260 and I will stay long until I see a large 5 wave movement unfold. I have also included a chart of an alternate interpretation that has wave b (circle) forming a triangle. This would mean the wave would more likely end at about 1.4220. The correction is not over if this wave is wave 1. The only way it could be over is if it was wave iv (circle). I think this option has a pretty low probability.

I think that is a very smart way to look at these kind of things but with charting software you are getting it from a broker who is trying to win your business.

I knew you couldn't stay away lol! I bought in a normal position size this morning and then my entry order was triggered on the break of the trend channel so I have a large position with an average buy in of ~1.4268. The reason why I entered this position is because I believe the entire wave (1) is complete. The last waves down have the look of 5th of 5th waves. I'm pretty sure 5th of 5th waves is the only time they do strange things like that. Also as we were both counting the waves before wave i (circle) of wave 3 was bigger than wave 1. I don't think a wave of an extension can ever be bigger than a wave of the higher degree so we were probably wrong and that was the entirety of wave 3. I'm now planning on holding my long position until 1.4860 until further information is revealed.

Good call. I was feeling less confident after the wave down the started at 0800 yesterday. It appeared to be 5 waves and I think it should have only been 3 if that is the triangle I was expecting. So I exited at a small profit this morning. I have a small short position with a tight stop and I have an long entry set at about 1.4380.

Here's a chart of a trendline from the terminus of wave 1 to terminus of wave 3. The parallel line from the terminus of wave 2 puts the end of wave 4 approximately 1.4580 early Thursday. I don't normally use this technique because I don't think it is very accurate but it matches with my other expectations so we'll see how it plays out.

Good work. I was hoping to add to my position during the 3rd wave but I felt like I might be getting over confident and stopped myself. I got 780 pips of that with my normal position size. One of my best plays yet. It's nice to have someone doing this with me now. I opened a buy position (1/2 my normal position size) on the euro and set my stop 1.4240 and limit at 1.4580. I'm going to double my position size if we get a strong break of the 3rd wave trendline.

If you look at the chart I attached you will see where I think the wave count stands. I think wave 3 of (1) of primary 3 has concluded and we will see wave 4 starting Sunday. Here are some calculations I did... _______________________________ wave 1 down of primary 3 1 of (1) of 3 (circle) origin 1.51436 terminus 1.48277 length 315.9 2 of (1) of 3 (circle) origin 1.48277 terminus 1.51406 length 312.9 retracement 99.05% 3 of (1) of 3 (circle) origin 1.51406 terminus (1.46680/1.45855/1.42608) length (472.6/555.1/879.8) extension of 1(1.496/1.757/2.785) _________________________________________________ There are 3 points for the terminus of wave 3 due to different possibilities I see but the second is more likely than the first and the third is the most likely of all (the count I'm trading by). That is the most likely count because it is near a common fib level in relation to wave 1, the RSI has diverged and there has not been a movement I would feel comfortable calling a wave 4. Last week I posted that I felt is wasn't long enough because of its relation to wave (1) of primary 1. It has now surpassed the magnitude of that wave (not surprisingly). Looking into the future this correction is likely to be somewhat sideways with a retracement to at least 1.4595 (38%). If the first section of the correction is sharp I will likely only play that section to the upside and then reenter on the downside and wait out the rest of wave 4 without playing it. There's a good chance that wave 4 could consume all of next week.

The USD has made a movement that can be counted as 5 waves and therefore complete for a few days but I don't believe the movement is actually complete. If you look at my chart of the euro the movement since wave 1 down has only been about 1.618 times wave 1. That should be the minimum movement for wave 3. Also this movement has not been nearly as long as the wave 1 for primary wave 1 down. I've been short on this since the beginning of this wave but I won't be adding anymore until it becomes more clear whether this is the end of 1 or just wave 3 or 4.

Hi VR, Your analysis is good. I was watching the same thing. The throw over/throw under is actually more common than not for a triangle's e wave. This turned out to be part of a more complex pattern so I hope you didn't get killed expecting that 5th wave you were hoping for. I always play 4th and 5th waves very cautiously.

I've taken on more responsibility outside trading markets and the decreased leverage means forex is no longer my main source of income. I'm trading on a little longer time frame then before. I'm going to try to start posting again but I think the markets are clearing up now so it won't be as difficult to see what's coming next anyway. Here's one chart that is food for thought.

I believe IGMarkets provides forex options

you can look back at my last gbp/usd chart for reference but it appears wave (4) of 3 is close to finished and I'm still looking at the same targets for the end of wave 3.

yesterdays forecast for downside was a mistake as I somehow failed to realize that the C wave had not yet completed 5 waves (all c waves are 5 wave movements) so using elliott wave analysis the correction could not have been completed.

the last counts I posted are still the ones I'm going with but with either count I expect downside from here. if it is very strong it will be my alternate count and I will try to post targets later

here are my top counts. right now I favor the count where we just ended wave i (circle) down and will now start (a) of ii (circle). The only problem I see is the wave (iii) of i (circle) I have labeled overlaps itself. Alternated count puts us at the bottom of wave (i) of iii (circle). The way you know which it is is by the form the waves takes and their strength as they develop.

i think we're in wave iv of (v) down so we can expect another low at about 1.4490 before continuing with what my last post says

the euro is likely at or close the bottom of wave i (circle) so we could see multiple up days following this for a wave 2 correction. I will post a chart with targets later.

got a late start today. i was hoping the markets would wait for me. looks like the down trend in the djia was confirmed. hopefully we'll see confirmation of the up trend in the dollar today or tomorrow

The euro appears to have finished a 5 wave pattern and an a wave but ultimately i see more downside today. the pound appears to have just completed a bearish triangle or is close to it