throughthemud

Here you go. I was just being lazy. I know you were labeling the end of the last wave as a third of a third so that may be where your outlook was confusing with my outlook but I don't see anyway that the last two corrective waves can be of the same degree. The last corrective wave at most could correspond with the corrective wave I've labeled ii (circle) on the chart.

Just looked at targets for wave v (circle) of 1 based on counting the entire correction since december 22nd and if waves i (circle) and v (circle) are equal that doesn't even put us at a new low. I think that knowledge greatly reduces the probability that we are beginning wave v (circle) of 1.

I'm fully leveraged at 1.4536. Crossing my fingers!

I'm not going to say you are wrong 100% but that seeming 3 wave pattern is not what bothers me. The only thing I'm missing is RSI-7 falling farther on the 4 hour for the end of wave (iv) and rising to 70 on the daily for the end of wave (v). I still think that was wave (v) because of its size and speed. This is common for wave 5s. The reason they can seem to be 3 wave patterns is because of the triangles that are common in wave 4s. It was a converging triangle but we failed to recognize the end of the pattern.

I dropped the ball here. I saw the 1.4576 level yesterday because it is wave equality between wave (i) and (v). I expected it to go past that though so I didn't even consider it as a possibility. I thought you were on the money with the triangle pattern but it was obvious it was wrong wheni saw the momentum of that wave. In any case I missed my entry for the short but I have one set at 1.4545 to get fully leveraged to the downside when it comes back up.

Yeah, I realized yesterday that I was getting ahead of myself. I don't know why I expected the 4th wave to be over so quickly. A good indicator is rsi-7 on the 4 hour chart. It should get to oversold or very close before the correction is over at this degree. One other thing is I wouldn't expect the e wave throw over even though it is common. Just act like it's not there because it's really only a few pips even if this happens. Play it conservative because e and the wave 5 following are likely to be very quick and sharp. I have an entry set at each area to pick them all up.

I'm fully leveraged long again now. I put an entry order at 1.4630 to enter my short position. I still have my limit at 1.4585 because I want to be sure that gets hit if I'm not able to check on it very much today.

Good call. I can definitely see that as a possibility. I have my limit at 1.4585. Despite what I said last night I think that would be a good stopping point whether this is the end of minor wave 2 or the end of wave iv (circle) like you pointed out. So, the difference doesn't matter right now but it will have a big impact a little bit down the road. Just to play on the side of caution I'm switching my primary count to the expanded flat. That will call for more conservative targets following the next low. It will also enable us to still hit the 1.4680 level when minor wave 2 finally appears.

I was surprised the euro didn't make it any higher than it did today. The high could be the completion of wave iii of (iii) of c (circle) (highest probability by my mind) but I think we may not have hit wave 5 of iii yet. Whatever the case may be there should be another push higher and I think it would have to make it above the 1.4585 resistance so I'm thinking that leaves us open all the way to 1.4680.

A quick shot of my target for today. I think I'll close all positions at that point and maybe do a short.

If you count wave (i) of c (circle) as complete at 10:00 on 01/04 with a high of 1.4455 and the next thrust up as being wave b of (w) then the 1.618 fib level for wave (iii) puts us at 1.4583. Just some more fuel for the fire on that resistance level you brought up. Sorry I can't take a screenshot to show a chart for some reason.

here we go villa. I think we'll keep going until about 1.4510 which is the area of dynamic resistance off the highs from 12/29 and 01/05 and I'll add to my position on that pull back but I'm a little over leveraged already.

The chart I attached is the only alternate count I see though it is close to your primary count. I think this wave 4 has been going on too long to still be part of the wave structure you're showing. That's why I'm calling it the 3rd and 5th waves of the entire movement since the 26th of November. This being a 2nd wave I don't have much of a problem with an extended wave C. I agree with the levels you have identified. The resistance at 1.4585 that you were looking at I figure to be a likely stopping point for wave iii of (iii) of c (circle). At most I think it would be the end of wave (iii) and be surpassed by wave (v) but time will tell I suppose. We won't have to worry about it if my primary count turns out to be wrong.

Here's my chart of Minor degree wave pattern. This is my primary forecast. The wave (iii) and (v) of c (circle) highs are at areas of strong support going as far back as late 2007. We'll have to wait and see how and if wave (iii) forms before I can refine these targets. I will post my alternate count later.

I just got the iphone and was happy to find good forex apps. CitiFX has a good quote board that is the quickest and easiest way to keep an eye on currency pairs. Click on the currency pair on it gives you a decent chart showing 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or 1 year. GFT and FXCM both have apps that you can use to trade with. FXCM's app is decent. It allows you to view quotes but only 1 pair at a time. Charts appear to be only tick and 5 minutes charts. You can buy, sell, set entry and OCO orders. View your balance, positions and news. There's even a button to call them to place an order. If you're trading a micro account there is a $0.10 per lot charge but that's only a pip so it shouldn't stop you from using it.

I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

I got stopped out but I'm a glutton for punishment so I jumped back in.

Here are charts of my primary and alternate counts. Both call for an upward movement but my primary count calls for a short upward movement ending by about 1.4330 or a little higher and my alternate calls for a very large upward movement in a third of a third wave. I switched to a long position at about 1.4300 and I will place a stop right above that once the market moves higher. My current stop is at 1.4280. I'm hoping my alternate count is correct. The RSI on the hourly and 4 hour seems to point that way too but not strongly enough for very high confidence.

Non-farm payrolls this morning. Normally it's a good day but I'm lacking confidence in my position so I'm deleveraging down to a small position. Not seeing a full movement yesterday lowered my confidence in the short position. Dynamic resistance off the lows seems to be holding everything up. Looking at usd index also made things look more murky. Today should clear everything up though.

Has anyone done any trading via smartphone? I'm about to upgrade my phone and if I can I want a phone that I could make some trades from. What broker and phone model are you using?

I definitely agree with this being wave iv (circle). As you noted the initial rise was 3 waves so this seems to negate the possibility of a larger rise. Wave c of (ii) of v (circle) appears to have ended and we're at the beginning of a wave 3 downward. Initial target for wave (iii) of v (circle) 1.4109 Initial target for wave v (circle) via trendline: ~1.3900 (I don't believe it will actually reach that level) via fib wave 1 = 5: ~1.4168 (I have a hard time believing it will not surpass this level)

I set an entry order at 1.4318 for a full long position with a stop set at the low. I may enter before that if I get impatient or we see 5 waves down on the 5 minute scale

We're at a critical juncture here. My primary wave count puts us at the beginning of wave (iii) of c (circle) and my alternate puts us at wave (ii) or v (circle). We'll know today which one was correct. I'm not feeling much more confident either way but the things I've talked about before such as the rsi-7 on the daily seem to suggest a larger rise is on the way. Also the last wave had the look of a second wave. Any drop below 1.4267 would indicate my alternate count was correct. Minimum target for wave (iii) of c (circle) would be about 1.4620.

Marketwavez, I accept your withdrawal. Thank you for your cooperation.

I entered on the downside. I'm figuring that a good explanation for why the C wave looks like it does is this is actually just wave iv (circle) of 1 instead of a-b-c of 2 like VILLAFILLER and I we're looking at earlier. we'll have to see how this plays out