throughthemud

My count appears like its pretty much the same as yours on the euro. I'm not quite sure the high is in. Maybe one more but definitely not much higher. I'm long chf/jpy right now but I'll probably get out of that and into euro short tomorrow or tuesday.

Good call on the triangle but something I've started to notice is I think wave C is usually smaller than wave A so to at least be on the safe side put profit targets at 75 - 80% the length of wave A when trading a C wave. I made a chart of my current projections for wave A growth. Assuming a zigzag pattern wave 3 of A could likely end at about 3820. It is a heavy resistance level and the 1.618 x wave 1 projection. The 38.2% retracement of the drop since 11/26 is about 4020 and another heavy resistance level for a possible end to wave A overall. We obviously need more time before we can tell for sure if it will be a zigzag but it's looking good so far.

I think the drop that started on 11/26/09 is temporarily over and the trend has started upward. The pound broke out of its wave 2 to wave 4 trend channel today and the euro should follow though it has a ways to go. I will add a chart later.

The momentum is fading too much as you mentioned so I went short again with 20 pip stops. Looking at the indicators this may be wave 4 ending. I'll be watching closely around the low from yesterday to decide whether this is wave 5 or wave b.

That was just a small fifth apparently so back to the upside for my previous levels for now. Time to watch carefully as the price action has a couple strong possibilities.

I was wrong obviously so back on the downside. If it maintains this momentum probably wave 3 of 3 of 5

It looks to me like this is the end of the first wave of the fifth wave of the drop since november of last year. It has approximately reached the 0.618 x wave 1 length that is a possible stopping point for the complete 5 but I believe it is only the start for the reason I mentioned yesterday. The stopping points I'm looking at are 3640s (same level villa was looking at before) and/or the upper trend connecting the larger degree waves 2 and 4.

After today's action on the euro I think this 5th wave will be extended. It could just be a quick move but wave 1 and 5 being close to the same size makes me think that is very low probability.

I didn't think we'd see a new high so I got stopped out at break even but I got back in at the low 38s on the euro. I put my stop at break even again so hopefully I make something this time.

Looks like a lot of markets are ready to turn down now. The shorting euro and gbp right now. Crude oil and stocks looks ready to drop this week. I've got tight stops increase we get one more sharp spike up but I believe this is either the end of a C wave or A wave on the euro and gbp. We're way overbought on rsi and we have macd crosses on 1 hour charts. The macd cross on the 4 hour chart will come during wave 2 of 1 of 5 which will be an excellent place to add to the position.

My larger degree count is the same as yours villa and my targets for wave c (circle) of (iv) are also the same. I think it is more likely that this wave will be a running flat or running triangle though. Just to let you know you're breaking a rule on your count for the subdivisions of wave 3. That should be an extended wave 1. EDIT: Wave 5 could very likely be extended. It is likely that it will fit mostly in the wave 3 trend lines breaking through the bottom slightly. I usually assume 9 wave sequences.

Wave (b) is on. Wave b of (b) will probably carry to about 3976 at most and then c will probably drop to about the wave (i) low. Wave © will then proceed to 1.4120 but watch out for the running flat. It is pretty common for wave 2s of 3s

Here are a couple of charts that help explain my last post and current outlook.

To me this last drop certainly seems to be wave i (circle) of 3 down when the sizes of the waves are related. This correction should take us to 1.4128 minimum but I wouldn't expect anymore than that unless wave (a) takes us there. As I type this we are at the point where wave iii of (a) equals wave i of (a). It should shoot up quickly soon. If it does not then it is more likely that this is indeed wave c of (a) as in the last chart villafiller posted.

I think you just helped me clear up a major misconception I had. After that last wave 1 it dawned on me that a lot of times I see that overlapping pattern and think it is a b wave but after your post I'm pretty sure it's actually the 5th wave. I don't have a good chart to look at right now to verify this but I will later. This mislabeling has probably caused me confusion before. If I'm right the most common position I've seen a diagonal in is the 5th of a 1st.