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FulcrumTrader
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MC seems like a charting platform with a lot of potential.....glad to see you are doing some testing! I myself over the next few months will start doing some testing of the TradeVec platform and charting, as this group may be adding Cumulative Delta volume studies as a part of their product. If TradeVec adds Cumulative Delta Volume studies (as candlesticks!!!) I will do back flips.....LOL! :rofl: A good broker friend of mine has been working with this group and what I am seeing so far is very promising! They actually have an informational webinar planned for this Tuesday right at 3:30 pm US Central time (at the Globex close time)........ TradeVec Webinar The date in the link shows Wednesday but that has been set for Tuesday now.....so Tuesday at 3:30 pm is the TradeVec info webinar.
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I myself just stay away from NT for now for any BID/ASK volume work until I see them enhance their platforms capabilities. Investor RT Pro for only $60 a month is a bargain to me and I can always have solid historical lookback capabilities with DTN feed.
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Yes.....Rithmic/Zenfire feed is NOT working for proper BID/ASK volume studies. If you do your research and see how thorough DTN.IQ manages and time stamps their feed, you will then see why many of these broker supplied feeds can't touch the capability/reliability of DTN.IQ feed. I do have an update on this feed situation from some recent testing. If you have a very good newer PC with very good internet (cable modem at a minimum) we have a client who is working with NT connected to DTN.IQ feed and he is NOT getting any data drops now. So a trader can then track the GomCD with NT connected to DTN.IQ feed.......the only capability you would not have is historical lookback (like you would have with DTN.IQ feed connected to Investor RT Pro for up to a 4 week backfill). If you wanted historical lookback in NT with DTN.IQ you would need to save your own data which can be done with the GomCD Recorder function. So this was good to see that one of my clients has been able to get NT to work now with DTN.IQ feed for Cumulative Delta tracking......cool!
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MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Hello......unless you are using DTN.IQ feed connected to your Sierra charts I would not trust your Cumulative Delta bid/ask differential plot. Here was the look of the latter portion of the day on Friday in the ES......... Images | ChartHub.com The overall market was so overly saturated with SHORT inventory the past days/weeks (with several SHORT hedges built up on the way down) that I actually covered out my final longer term SHORT trade positions Friday. I was telling everyone that the Delta Volume Distribution, after several very significant Inventory Grab events intraday, was extremely ripe for imbalances to soon shake out (significant SHORT covering rally). On a Friday after an extended multi-week down move (over 100 points) the market was TOTALLY vacant of any significant held LONG inventory in the March contract (market VOID of LONG participants embedded at lower pricing levels......no one left that can be forced into LONG covering in a hard down trending market). Seeing this important major inventory grab Delta Volume Distribution situation (a key "supply & demand" driven market event) put me into the LONG side mode for the day. I initiated a longer term LONG trade Friday that I will work until I see Commercials start loading up SHORT accumulation again at various pricing levels. MANY that were holding very significant SHORT positions finally started to cover out into the powerful SHORT covering rally into the end of Friday......there we go, imbalances playing out! -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Only at the very end of the day as all those holding heavy SHORT positions from much higher pricing levels covered out into the last portion of the Globex session (for the ES that is). CL/QM had a heck of a nice move again today......that was excellent! -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
No problem sir! I track the CL for my Cumulative Delta based entries but I trade the QM's myself.....Crude Oil has many very good set ups to trade week after week. -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Yes indeed, the trade back up to the 1099.50 level was again sold while there was on going SHORT accumulation building during all those rotational price highs. Your CVD line from XStudy was showing the correct information at the time........ Images | ChartHub.com -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Delta Zone is a very small zone of price where there is a statistical amount of inventory that initiated trade in that small zone of price......buyers or sellers initiated their activity in a small zone of price up to a statistical threshold that I track. -
Yes.....for the life of me, I do not know WHY Neoticker will not add Cumulative Delta candlesticks????????????????????? :o I know L.C. seems like a sharp guy so why not add some simple CD candlesticks......hmmmm?
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MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
I myself do not filter out any of these trades but if you wanted to you could put a > 999 trade filter on for the bid/ask data. Many times when I see these big trades go off it is at levels where someone is getting turned into a weaker hand (capitulating some positions). I do not filter the trades out, but I always do pay attention to the recent context of Price/Delta Volume action as I see what was taking place at the time the trades executed. -
Now somebody like Blowfish, who is a heck of a lot better at programming than me, should build a VWAP of the days Cumulative Delta Volume and Price averaged together......that one I will gladly back-test!!! BTW.....I HATE programming stuff!!! :crap:
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Correct....pivot points for the most part. I will say though, VWAP is still averaging the days information and creating a computational reference line that may or may not have anything to do with where smarter money sees value in that current market. VWAP can also give some really bad skews on days when multiple levels of resting inventory all get neutralized over a short period of time (like a hard trend day). I do know a few profitable traders who do use VWAP in limited roles, so for some they may find value in the information provided.....and that is not a bad thing.
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MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Cumulative Delta works BEST on those futures instruments that have a large percentage of the total overall volumes traded by smarter money (Commercials). I myself trade the following futures instruments throughout the year all based on my Cumulative Delta tracking/set ups; ES, ZB, CL/QM, NG, FDAX, FESX, to name a few. I am also starting to build up my order flow transition reference benchmarks for the Kospi 200 and the Hang Seng so I can trade those indexes this year. I know many other Cumulative Delta based traders that are trading other types of futures instruments like the 6E, ZC, ZS, etc. You mentioned above, "on RARE occasions, I've seen delta continually become increasingly negative yet price continued to move up" and as you see this you are watching realtime accumulation taking place. Smarter money frequently sells into ascending price and buys into descending price......they love the price improvement as they fire off orders into the counter movement of price at those moments. Even over multi-day periods, Commercials frequently sell into multiple new rotational highs in price as they build up a bigger position. They take full advantage of the new price improvement offered with each new high (as they dynamically upwardly adjust their held position cost basis). With each rotation of price back down off a new high, they will then cover out small portions of their overall held position which had previously been entered from lower pricing levels (I call this cycling of price). Commercials profitably cycle positions in and out to dynamically adjust their overall held inventory cost basis with rotations of price off each new high.....or price returning back near a previous high. When you see price diverge from the Cumulative Delta whether in a 5 minute period of time or a multi-day period of time, some group is accumulating. -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Who and why put on all those positions twice in the last week is not all that important to me for the most part. The part that was of interest to me was that so many positions where accumulated so near recent lows. In past years when I have seen this market activity it was apparently hedging from the contacts I have in Chicago. I am not at all of thought there is ONLY hedging of other held LONG equities positions in mind for those who are conducting these hedging operations......I definitely think there is a stand alone directional trade component to this heavy position activity. -
Here....I will start you out..... Proprietary Trading Firms - Prop Trading Firms - Traders Log
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A Theory of Market Action: Part IV - The Theory
FulcrumTrader replied to madspeculator's topic in Market Profile
Hey Madspeculator, I see you have CQG....I just set myself up with another futures account to try out CQG (because they have excellent bid/ask data) and eventually see if they could add Cumulative Delta candlsticks capability. They already have the data formated properly for their TFlow charts so it should be VERY EASY for CGQ to add CD candlesticks. I would LOVE to one day have the charting/trade platform/and data source all combined for my Cumulative Delta charting/trading needs. -
Correct.....just one of many Commercials in futures.
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MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
So what did we get Friday? The ES was able to trade right up to the cost basis zone for the remaining SHORT hedge position (1093's) and then it was all down from there to new lows on the day.....that was an excellent day. What we are left with going into the Sunday night Globex re-open is a sick market VACANT of any real held LONG inventory (so no REAL support yet in the ES). We ended the last few minutes of the ES Globex session with about 10,000 SHORT contracts unwinding for the week well in the green.....they did very good with their held positions (again). That new low for the day just happened to be right into the 1068.00 to 1064.00 + 80 point profit targets zone for those Commercials who had sold heavily the 1144.00 to 1148.00 Delta Zone of SHORT inventory.......they also did very good Friday (and any of those who also had sold the 1144.00 to 1148.00 zone of price as a longer term trade). -
Yes you are seeing some of the issues first hand.....what we verified was several issues with both the platform and at times the feed causing data drops. We also detected some data drops with Rithmic connected to Investor RT charting, so there are multiple problems that at anytime can cause these data drops of bid/ask data intraday (with the various broker supplied feeds).
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MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
No problem sir.....I fully understand where you are coming from......our differences of observations makes this an excellent game! -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
Delta Volume Distributions change constantly throughout the trade day, but at this time we had portions of the recent hedge remain even with the trade in the ES to the 1093's today. That area of price traded offered sell set ups followed by heavy selling hitting the order flow with 1093's traded. From that point we have traded low enough to have caused ALL the significant held LONG inventory left in this market to go neutral (with the trade back down to the 1080's). At this point, the market is now in the typical process of after a major Inventory Grab event trying to find NEW buy support.......sometimes that takes a while. A market vacant of those willing to accumulate LONG inventory leaves us with a very weak market at the point of time I type this information....so we currently have no REAL support holding current pricing levels in the ES (no significant held LONG inventory......yet). As a result, I still remain SHORT with my remaining longer term postions held in the ES. -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
I agree with much of what you say......there are not many absolutes that you can cling to in attempting trade entry determinations. At some point though, you have to imo find for yourself an ability to determine probabilities as you develop a trading strategy......since we all should know there are no perfect holy grail methodologies. For myself, I have found trading off repeating patterns within the traded bid/ask order flow much more robust than other methods I have previously used......tracking supply & demand just makes sense to me. -
MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
The day the Equities hedge was built up (which I have now confirmed was hedging order flow through my Chicago based contacts) there was several Cumulative Delta based SHORT trade set ups intraday in the small zone of price where the hedge was initialized and developed....so there was definitely good trading opportunities in the 1111's/1110's Friday. Now again Wednesday there was another decent sized hedge built up at pricing levels above recent lows. As a result of the hedge position being held into Wednesday's close, I was an aggressive seller of Cumulative Delta based after hours session SHORT trade set ups with the ES move to the 1103.50's......that price movement beyond the cost basis of the hedge position was an excellent trade opportunity in the after hours session imo (patterns I have seen many times before). By the time we rang the bell for the open, any sellers of the 1100's area or higher were already well in the money with any remaining held SHORT positions from the after hours session trade. Soon after the open, Commercials right away worked the order flow as the market was driven to much lower pricing levels (and eventual fresh new lows in the ES of 1074.25's......right down into the +70 point profit targets zone for those who sold 1148.00's to the 1144.00's area of significant SHORT accumulation). Those who had the hedge in place to this point have again done exceptionally well with their positions.....and with fresh trade to new lows of 1070.50's in tonights after hours session offered, covering portions out well over 20 points in the money was available. It is the repeating patterns within the actual traded order flow of the bid/ask differential (Delta Volume Distributions) that has many very profitable groups paying attention to and tracking this information. -
I really like the Trader X readings...... 'The Art of the Trade" by Jason Alan Jankovsky "Trading Rules that Work: The 28 Lessons Every Trader Must Master" by Jason Alan Jankovsky http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470138998/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_2?pf_rd_p=486539851&pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&pf_rd_t=201&pf_rd_i=0471792160&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=1AP7V6M6EZH5D5141GH7
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MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!
FulcrumTrader replied to FulcrumTrader's topic in General Trading
No.....I was talking about when all the inventory that was accumulated in a zone of price goes to neutral (the inventory was covered and no longer remains held). When significant held inventory unwinds and goes neutral (holders of that resting inventory capitulate) I call that an "Inventory Grab" event.