FulcrumTrader

Just a heads up, the MC crew will be out in Vegas for the Online Trade Expo [ The Traders Expo Las Vegas ] and if you want to talk to them first hand about Cumulative Delta here is your chance. BTW, the Online Trade Expo is free so register early here........... The Traders Expo Las Vegas I will arrive in Vegas on Sunday the 14th and will be staying at one of my homes there until Monday the 22nd. The FulcrumTrader Group has a great get together of Cumulative Delta Volume based traders that will be out at my place the 18th to 20th. We will have an informal get together for any traders that want to show up and "talk shop" at Caesars Palace Wednesday night at 7:00 pm (come join us at the SHADOW BAR in Caesars Palace..... Caesars Nightlife Shadow a Bar at Caesars Palace ). If anyone wants to get a hold of me with questions contact my email here for get together details: info@fulcrumtrader.com

I will give you the recorded session from the Market Perspective link in the Topic section from my site by PM. I will be going through the same information again today for an informational webinar showing how to use the Cumulative Delta in Momentum Trading at 3:30 pm US central time.

Yes it was recorder, so once downloaded to site I will get you the link. BTW, tomorrow I will cover same information again at 3:30 pm US central time informational webinar.

Yes indeed, I did show various set ups in the "6E" at today's informational webinar and I will have another informational webinar Thursday so check it out. BTW, I hit two trades in the 6E after the key supply & demand event taking place in the Euro I was telling you about at the time. First trade out at b/e and second trade caught the big move.....added a screen shot of the entry set ups for you.

We will most likely run another Cumulative Delta based trader gathering in Paris in very early August.....I have many EU contacts that want an EU event so those are the dates we are looking at. Also, a Miami Beach in the spring event may take place first....we are looking at dates at this time. Miami will be the "Beach, Babes, and Bots" event! JK....LOL!

I was working DAX trading tonight for the gap fill play to Friday's closing price area. I had LONG entry set ups after a decent supply & demand event......DAX traded through for gap fill. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ipfh4nOPPo]YouTube - DAX Momentum Trades After Supply & Demand Event (HD)[/ame] *** Heads up to Cumulative Delta based traders - traders from my group will all be out in Vegas the 17th to 20th of November this year. We are having a Cumulative Delta based traders gathering to look at some Transaction Level Analysis ideas collectively (these are the same dates the Las Vegas Online Trade Expo is going on at Caesars Palace). Those interested in Cumulative Delta and related work will be working together in one of my homes to see what tools we can create for better analysis or automation. We will be looking into several specific areas of interest; CD Volume to Total Volume Ratios CD Momentum Trade Intensity CDVWAP Indicators Order Book Delta Indicators We have a good diverse group that will be looking into all these subjects to see what good ideas we can generate as a focused group (programmers and traders will be out in Vegas for this gathering). And of course as a group in the evenings we will be out counting cards as a combined Blackjack hit team to make millions........JK.......LOL! Any of you Cumulative Delta junkies want to meet up one night in Vegas during these dates in November just let me know......we have several scheduled fun times set up in the evenings we can all meet somewhere!

The only real information that can at times help set you up for potential directional changes in price is Order Book Delta (from all the un-traded order activity in the order book). I do have an Order Book Delta tool that I run on my NT7 to identify ACV ratios of 2:1 or greater. If all you are going to do is run ACV ratio analysis in the real time order book activities you should be fine with just pulling data from Zenfire API or TT Fix feeds that are available. If you are going to do more intense analysis then you probably will need to go TT API or CQG. Many traders from my group will all be out in Vegas the 17th to 20th of November this year. We are having a Cumulative Delta based traders gathering to look at some of these exact Transaction Level Analysis issues collectively (these are the same dates the Las Vegas Online Trade Expo is going on at Caesars Palace). Those interested in Cumulative Delta and related work will be working together in one of my houses to see what tools we can create for better analysis or automation. We will also be looking into several other specific areas of interest; CD Volume to Total Volume Ratios CD Momentum Trade Intensity CDVWAP Indicators Order Book Delta Indicators We have a good diverse group that will be looking into all these subjects to see what good ideas we can generate as a focused group (programmers and traders will be out in Vegas for this gathering). And of course as a group in the evenings we will be out counting cards as a combined Blackjack hit team to make millions........JK.......LOL! Any of you Cumulative Delta junkies want to meet up one night in Vegas during these dates in November just let me know......we have several scheduled fun times set up in the evenings we can all meet somewhere!

There are Delta Volume Distributions in many futures instruments that hold critical levels for 10 to 20 trading days. What matters most is the overall action of the market you are tracking....is the instrument in a multi-week trend or a multi-week range. I have even traded ES levels holding inventory that were developed over 20 trading days prior.....so there is no absolutes here imo.

The Cumulative Delta Volume distribution patterns in CME FX instruments are different than most other futures instruments. Now the good thing is, the CME FX instruments though still have patterns that can be utilized imo. There are actually very significant supply and demand shifts that take place in the currencies which can be pretty easy to spot once you know what you are looking at. If a trader understands how to use the Delta information there is a proper way to track the Cumulative Delta Distributions real time. Tracking the on going changes to the distribution is what I do to know when divergences present themselves. There are times I track very short term developed divergences (regular or hidden) and there are times that I am tracking very significant (and obvious) longer term divergences (regular or hidden). As I see these divergences develop real time, then I use my experience and rules for these divergences to look for actionable trade entry set ups. Here were some divergences in the ES at the end part of the week. I myself tend to work trades off the more significant divergences since that is where the best supply and demand energy can be found. Images | ChartHub.com Images | ChartHub.com

I usually trade the TF when I see ES supply and demand events take place that I continuously track for. I find the TF has a bit more bang for the buck with catching the Momentum that will build in a market out of certain events. On the other hand, the TF does bounce around more so some days that can work against you on a few trades. Overall, the 3:1 risk to reward money management is a critical component to trading these set ups. Entering trades into Momentum should be done with some expectation of catching price/volume action that frequently has follow through. I do trade Momentum set ups in a wide range of instruments (ES, TF, YM, CL, DAX, ZB, 6E, 6B, 6C, etc). I would say most all typical futures instruments are workable for Momentum trades.

Delta Divergences play out many ways so there is some real time behavioral tendencies to track for. Entering Momentum trades, after the supply & demand event has already responded, can be a more comfortable trade as a trader looks for confirmation. In the currencies, I like to have stops in the 7 to 10 tick range as I do pay attention to the recent closed signal bar range. I never use stops less than 7 ticks and never more than 10 ticks. Also, I do look at where the 3:1 profit target would be placed in relation to recent price action pivots/areas of resting held inventory. A trader can dumb down the whole process too.....use 8 tick stop on every trade with a 24 tick target (for at least 2/3'rds of the position). I use the lower subgraph at the moment I enter the trade for confirmation. This is set up to confirm a lack of resistance in the order book to the market order driven order flow. I want to make sure as I am about to enter trade, that order book activities are not challenging the market orders hitting the order book (leading right up to trade entry). The best real time Momentum is built from strong market order driven order flow hitting the order book into minimal resistance.

Here was a live TF Momentum trade example from the other day as an ES supply and demand event was playing out;

"Price is Horsepower and Volume is Torque" I always want to know the Torque behind movements of price, so I constantly track the Cumulative Delta Volume (a parsed volume study looking at the BID/ASK differential of the "market order" driven order flow). There are many ways to use VOLUME in your trading set ups and the Cumulative Delta is my prime tool. Here is an example of a Russell trade set up as I track price and Cumulative Delta Volume; [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHM3M5YajEk]YouTube - Momentum Trades using Cumulative Delta[/ame]

We still have very solid Momentum trades setting up each day in the currencies. These Momentum moves have been very active each day and I have been working the "6E" frequently the past weeks. Here was a few examples from today;

TS currently is not set up properly (data format) to track the CD of Volume. They are working to change their entire data feed structure to have CD of Volume availble at some point in the future (from what I have been told).....so we will see. I will believe this when I see it live (for 30 days.....LOL!!!) I sure hope they build up the capability to have CD of Volume available.....that would be nice!

Correct, there are different CD of Volume patterns that I look for in the CME FX products as compared to all other futures instruments (for my standard supply and demand event based trading). For my Momentum signals trading, the trade set up criteria is the same as all other futures instruments. Since the CME FX products are a side game off the bigger spot market game, this does affect the type of larger liquidity participants activity in futures. I still track unique CD of Volume patterns in the CME FX products though, so there is still good actionable supply & demand based trade set ups available.

Yes, the Momentum trade set ups are the exact same for me in CME FX products. The best Momentum currencies moves I find are still as the CD of volume is in alignment with the CD of the uptick/downtick of trades (resistance to the market order driven order flow). When market order driven order flow has minimal resistance in the order book, price moves run really well (and the currencies have had excellent moves all over the place day after day). Heck, I even trade the spot market now with my Momentum trade set ups. For spot I just use the CD of the uptick/downtick of trades (with no CD of volume info) as my mechanism to track the trade rate activity......works perfect in spot. Here is a CME FX example of recent Momentum set ups....

Sure....I will try and put another video together from today's action and post it later for you. The CL is an exceptional instrument for Momentum set ups imo, and I can't really think of any time in past years when the CL was stuck in lower volatility trading intraday.

Delta Divergences are not all the same so this is very difficult to backtest properly....some have divergences of 4,000 contracts still held and some have 80,000 contracts still held (while price re-tests the area the held inventory was previously initiated). After watching Cumulative Delta for 7 1/2 years now real time, I can say for sure there are certain Delta Divergences that are extremely high probability for actionable trade set ups. Areas of resting inventory either build with each re-test or start to degrade, so watching the play out of the inventory commitment is the key imo for trading Delta based set ups. The two types of divergences that I track with CD are; Regular Delta Divergence - where price returns to an area of held inventory and the inventory holds, with price equal or beyond the pricing levels when the inventory was initiated previously. Hidden Divergence - where price returns to an area of held inventory (but never beyond), and the inventory fully capitulates (goes neutral) simultaneously with an addition of over-committed new inventory late chasing the move into an area of anticipated breakdown/breakout. As price does not fulfill the expectation of the breakdown/breakout and starts to bounce, the newer over-committed inventory bails fast fueling an extended departure from the area of price in play. There is another very good trade set up I track for called an Inventory Grab, and these supply and demand events also provide actionable scalp or position trades. Delta Divergences of the various types possible are not something that can be all grouped into a single statistical event (for back testing). There is more to tracking supply and demand events in the markets, to see the various patterns of activities from bigger liquidity players, than looking only for basic Delta Divergences. The good thing imo is tracking the actual order flow through Cumulative Delta is a heck of a lot easier than trying to learn Market Profile. What I have found over time though is very few traders know how to use the Cumulative Delta information properly. Once a trader understands what they are looking for in the Cumulative Delta distributions it becomes very actionable information.

Like I had mentioned before in this thread....oh well.

Other than just tracking the traded "market order" driven order flow with Cumulative Delta, a trader can also look for hints in the trend of the DOM's running ACV Ratio (Order Book Delta). Just remember, a realtime 2:1 or greater ACV Ratio will frequently attract the market to TRADE TO SIZE. Transaction Level Analysis has several moving parts, and if you track the separate components you can find actionable patterns for trade entries.

Both standard and hidden divergences work just fine in either direction, but I do pay special attention when a Momentum trade sets up with the prevailing trend.

Again, the Momentum moves have been very good in the DAX. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2iV1C5Ex1g]YouTube - Momentum Trading The DAX With Cumulative Delta[/ame]

To this day, the DAX and CL are still the instruments I like to trade the most. Both instruments have very definitive supply and demand events creating directional energy for dramatic price runs. The DAX last night had numerous momentum moves and once the Euro bounced off session lows the DAX shifted into that amazing rally mode back to the 6320's. It is hard not to LOVE the DAX price action!

Yes very good point, this is why I frequently will track a supply and demand event play out in the ES but I will actually trade a different instrument to take advantage of the move. Many times I will trade TF or DAX when I see certain Momentum moves initiate in the ES.....of course there are also times when I just take the trade in the ES itself. I watch market breadth during the trade day and I watch the futures instruments relation to each others pricing/delta levels (too see what looks strong and what looks weak).