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Monkman
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Everything posted by Monkman
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I am interested in the October seminar. Please send me details.
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ES real time, b2b volume and price annotations
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The annotations on that chart is what I would have done real time. There are certain aspects of the volume that I still do not understand well. Mainly under which type of channels do you need to see increasing volume to confirm the volume trend. Lets assume I am wrong with my B2B annotations. Could the fractal of the volume annotations be off? Even if they were does it change how we represent the price movement? In further hindsight I can see describing the trend, see attached charts. There we visually have the B2B in terms of the length of volume bars. Now, the issue now is how do we represent the 2nd BBT. Is it a BBT? What about the third BBT, does the symmetric make it complex? Can the symmetric also be considered simple? If you were to trade from one of these examples which picture would you pick to trade off of? Why?
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Added a little bit of clarity to your chart.
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Are the high lighted areas M1 and M2? On my chart I have the last 2R leg, which has a full cycle and two extra volume cycles.
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Are the two additional elements brought about after a VE?
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My take on this AM. Gotta love the solid continuation from previous day.
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Overtime it will change trust me, how long, no guarantees lol. You followed up with a home run on this one. I always wondered how others viewed the trade off with entries from other time frames. Back when we numbered cycles, from Dry up to Peak, 0 to 1, with the 0-7-6-5-4-3-2-1-0 numbering system, I tended to get annoyed on what I viewed as a late entry, between / closer to the 7 point. But really I was trading based on confirmation which yielded less profit in turn for a "lower risk trade." I am pretty sure I understand what you are talking about in the quote below. Would you be so kind to confirm if what I have made comments on is correct. "The "2" happens in the area where the RTL is crossed, and except on the fastest fractals, in extreme pace situations, or news spikes," BTW I am putting a sticky in my office with your above comment. There are several very helpful ones that people have posted in this thread, and this is one of them.
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Thank you for the example with the trading application comment. I just wanted to bring up that one might want to enter a trade near the first FTT in green. At this point what type of confirmation should we look for before we enter the trade short? From the information that is provided I am having difficulty seeing change. How do we know, its R2R if we have not seen a breakout from the prior sequences container? Specifically a break out in price from the prior container, and the end of the 2B from the prior volume sequence.
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I just wanted to point out, that I appreciate your help and I see that many others do as well. When we spoke a couple months ago, it sounded like you were on the fence about getting involved. Many others had expressed the same view as well. Over the past couple of months things have changed, and I genuinely believe that many of us have started to improve. I just wanted to challenge you publicly to not hold back. Share with us detailed answers with graphical explanations. Help provide us with information that is not a replay of the same old record. We may not be your family or good friends, but we are still a community of members that have been working hard together to achieve a common goal. To everyone: Try to avoid repetitive generalities that are undermining and unhelpful. If you are explaining a topic the best you can, then no hurt in that. If you were willing to go into detail on how you build your fractals that would be very helpful. Specifically, how you interpret the volume pace levels in determining the length of the cycle. When your looking for a shift or change (start of B2B or R2R), and your looking to make an entry, what do you specifically look for to confirm that you are seeing Change, and not a continuation of the last leg of the prior trend?
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Here is my attempt at this. With Bar 1 and 2 I would not go as far as to make an assumption that they are a single bar. It does happen to work in this case because you know the prior trend was B2B 2R(Bar 1-6), 2B. When people mention to view these as pairs I believe its because you wait until the next bar, or the following bars for a continuation or change confirmation. Look at Bar 7, that is what I mean by a continuation. Increasing black, bullish formation(bar 6-7). Bar 8, wait, bar 9, increasing volume PRV price increasing, continuation, look for peak volume. Bar 10 Peak volume, Bar 10-11 (this is why I do not think of them as one bar. Bar 11 is where you can first see a potential R2R shift. Bar 12 confirms with increasing Red volume). R2R(Bar 10-12, on Tape fractal. Notice how its not labeled that way in the chart, but that is the way I would label it. Though Jbarnby has had more success than me with so there is probably a reason its labeled that way. If you look at my charts I make mistakes, leave out annotations at times, mess up some annotations real time, that happens when your in the rhythm. Aside from that, if you look at all our charts they may looks very similar but rarely are any exactly the same). R2R(bar 10-12) 2B(bar 12-14), 2R(bar 14-17). Then the rest is a continuation of 2R, with VEs that tell you to steepen the channel. Which I believe also tells you to start looking closely for the FTT, and B2B/R2R change. Often I see, a VE with another VE or retrace. It gets tricky at this point especially mid-day at lower volume levels. Look at Bar 34-36. That is where you get those tricky modified PT3s. The Tape never becomes the Traverse, that is the wrong way to think about it. The Tape and Traverse are separate building blocks. How you could view it imo, is the Traverse has overlap on the Tape's fractal on both price and volume. It starts with Fastest Fractal formations, they build Tapes, which build Traverses. When the Tapes VE they can widen the Traverse channel, in which case you will see overlap in the price pane. Trends Overlap. I hope this helps. If I am off someone please correct me : )
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A little something for today
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I think we are making a lot of progress with this thread. There has been a great deal of information shared over the last couple months which has been priceless. For everyone that has been participating I cannot thank you enough. I wish everyone a Happy Holidays, and am looking forward to the New Year.
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Here is my take on the day. A re occurring question I keep asking myself is how to identify whether a RTL break should be fanned out or annotated for the formation of R2R. For example, 11:40, where we have the first break of the purple Tape on increasing volume from 11:30 to 11:40. During that bar, how do you know in the future that it will be fanned out rather than annotated for R2R? Are there any signals that suggest this failed break out beforehand? Do you have to wait for confirmation by next bar? I have pointed out another example of what appears to be similar occurrences in other charts. In the 14:35-15:00, I have this labeled as decreasing black. Following PAtraders drills and Cmns2's general processing example, I have began to pay closer attention to the 2 and 3 bar combinations on how I annotate them. Bar 1, 14:35, process Bar 2, 14:40, not processed Bar 3, 14:45, process (increasing volume, can't be b2b since Tape fractal is still on the R2R 2B phase) Bar 4, 14:50, process (increasing volume, same as previous bar, breaks green bookmark, violates what I believe to be the brown PT3 of the Traverse, and goes back into prior channel, WTF?)(This is also in a R2R 2B trend which adds further confusion because a PT3 of a channel is not suppose to be higher than the PT1, P1 - 13:40, P2 - 14:50 ?) Bar 5, 14:55, not processed Bar 6, 15:00, processed (increasing volume, bar closes above green bookmark, tape fractal guassians show that we are operating in a R2R 2B trend, but price shows that its going back into the previous channel continuing the B2B 2R 2B trend, which one is right did I make a previous annotation mistake?) Bar 7-8, not processed (price appears to be going back into brown Traverse channel) Bar 9, processed (increasing red, possible R2R 2B (2R) part of brown traverses's tape. So say you were trading this, and 13:40 was the PT3 of the traverse. Jack says that you should exit when price gets close to the green bookmark. Had you do that here, and in some of the other examples that were posted, you would have made a wash. Then you would have completely missed out of what seems to be the 2R move of the tape and traverse for tomorrow unless you entered back in at what may or may not be as good of a price point. For those of you that are trading this how would you have approach this situation? What about the annotations?
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Getting an error with that link. Could you re post a direct link, I believe the one that was listed is a search link.
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How does this apply to the situation highlighted in blue, and violet? In the blue region, the first bar breaks out of the previous channel. Here we have what appears to be a B2B shift on the Tape fractal. The second bar forms a SYM. Then Long Stich, with several flaws following. Now, does the above quote only refer to two bar FF formations or does it also refer to laterals as well? As you can see I labeled the volume one way on the Tape level, then found that a complete cycle had formed within this lateral. Each of these bars were less than the first, so had they not been process as part of a cycle in the gaussian formation then it appears I would have missed an entire Tape. Then towards the end of the high lighted blue region, we see a break out from the lateral, and the last price leg of the Tape in the sky blue channel. Its volume bar is also less than the first. Had this not been processed it seems that it would have caused several issues. With the Violet region a similar situation happen. B2B shift on the Tape fractal, SYM beginning the shift. By the third bar, at lateral forms, marked in light blue. Each bar after the SYM, is lower than the first. After the red ftt bar, had we not processed any of the volume bars lower than the start of the SYM, it appears we would have missed the B2B. Am I missing something here? Could we expand on Jack's instructions with further detail, and possible examples?
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I marked three different areas on my chart today that threw me off real time. The first was in the 10:35-10:40 area. By 10:30 I thought the tape fractal had completed. 10:30, was what I believed at the time was the beginning of B2B. Looking back several bars afterwards it was easy to correct the mistake but real time, not picking the right PT3 on the Traverse or FTT on the Tape does not yield positive results. Then the other area, which continues to be challenging is knowing when the VEs will end, along with the final FTT. Real Time, I believed bar 10:55 was the FTT. There were two VEs before it, volume had peaked several times, lower each time. By bar 11:00 volume began to decrease, SYM formed, and it appeared the tape fractal and traverse fractal were at a close. Was drawing in R2 at the time expecting a shift. Then, to my surprise 11:05, has increasing price and volume, heavy volume PRV. I see it getting close to the green bookmark, breaking upwards out of the SYM. At that point I thought I was wrong, and that another VE could possibly form. Does anyone know any clues that would have alerted me that 11:55 was not a FTT on that bar? By bar 11:05, where there any clues telling us that the move was at an end intra bar? Also 13:05 to 13:25. Real time the build up of bars appear to create B2B on the FF tape level, which typically builds to the Tape once the prior channel has been broken. Here after what appears to be B2B, the 2R breaks back into the prior channel continuing the earlier trend. How does one handle this real time? Do you have to wait till 13:25 to reach with a reverse, or is there an earlier indicator of this failed break out?
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I am wondering how others annotated 12:35 to close. The only way I could make sense of this area was to draw, what I call a prolonged tape, where the B2B 2R 2B cycle extends itself. So for example the 2R and 2B will continue to cycle within the current bounds of the P1-2-3 created by the channel. Now, I have noticed, and read about modified PT3s, which I am still trying to understand. If I was annotating real time I would consider 13:05 as the first area of PT3, then since its a lateral, fan out, making 13:10 the modified PT3. What gets interesting is the 13:05 bar appears to break that tape, hard to tell since its a close one. On bar 13:40 it definitely breaks through, which I believe is the start of what becomes a modified PT3. I am not sure how you account for these gaussian wise or how you spot them real time. The reason why this is important is because one PT3 is an entry point, and two, if you were holding since the PT1, you would have gotten a signal to exit prematurely. Below is the chart for today, any comments are welcome.
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Here is today's chart. Put some questions within the chart if anyone wants to comment. Thanks.
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Real time annotations done during PM. One area that threw me off today was the uptrend from 13:20 to 13:25. Previous to that, my PT3 was at the 13:00 point. After it broke out of the turquoise channel, I assumed the cycle had completed. Then I expected to see a new B2B cycle. Instead, price goes back into the previous turquoise channel, and continues the last 2R part of the cycle. As a result, I decided to fan out, and redo the PT3. At the 13:10 point, I believed that was the PT3 of the traverse, and the FTT of the non-dominant tape. I am wondering how others handle this particular situation. When this happens, does one immediately close the position or reverse when price goes back into the previous Tape?
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Today was pretty odd. The midday low volume levels carried into the close. Maybe the traders went to lunch and decided not to come back today. In the chart I focused on my FF tape annotations again, to build proper Tapes. I know there are several people out there that just trade based on price, and do extremely well. Real time when I am trying to annotate the volume cycles correctly, I tend to get bogged down because I think I see one part of the volume cycle, so I act on that. Then I find out its not correct, and its an extension of the previous cycle. I am wondering if I focus less on volume annotations real time, and more on price, if I will catch the transitions a lot quicker. Rather than waiting to see a certain volume cycle form before I act. As many of you know, if you get in on the FTT you are usually good to go, but if you get the next bar, its less forgiving during an intra-bar retrace. Also, if you make a mistake, which happens for me quite a bit. I think I see an FTT because the volume and price cycle appear to have been completed. So I then get in on that bar going the other direction. Then next bar will be a VE, and you get smoked. Has anyone found a working solution this problem?
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Below is a chart of the FF tapes, with one traverse in orange towards the end. I attempted to correctly nest the FF tapes together. It is not an easy task because of the added variables of non consistent fanning rules, flaw inclusion rules, etc. Also, it is often difficult to know whether to fan the RTL or create a non dom FF tape. This I know is crucial because if not done right it throws off the whole cycle. Anyone willing to comment? In the orange traverse, the FTT was violated. I assume when this happens, you form a new pt 3 by fanning out from the pt1 to the lowest point of the non dom tape.
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Basic chart , with tapes drawn on the price. The thicker lines are tapes. I went that direction they would be easier for me to see. Trying to keep it, as simple as possible to get this important building block down.
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Thank you for posting the chart. Hopefully you will post another, so I can compare yours to mine to figure out where I made mistakes.