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PAUL , This applies to all effecient market ,, the instrument is of no importance what so ever,, Grey1

New pattern recognition algos using fuzzy logic and its subset are dynamic and adapt themselves to market behaviour every day this is why they are so sharp.. You can not trade the market based on if MA1 crossed MA2 then buy for the rest of your life,,, you need codes which are adaptive and are self thought in real time using Neural Net and chaotic theories to tackle millions of combination of various inputs,, WAR OF THE CODES WAR AGAINST THE WEAKEST Grey1

If I was you I would use a more techncial approach to reply to my posts .. We never get any where if you come up with statement as above ,, they are neither constructive nor mathematical .. Grey1

There are millions of combinations in scaling out of pos which affects the final P/L out come but one can simulate the out come using Monta carlo ( assuming randon walk as a strategy for simplicity ONLY) and ATR as a means of measuring P/L for both stop and traget to find a reasonable risk managment strategy ,, The best tool I suggest is to optimise using a Genetic adaptive NN Grey1

IMHO Discretionary trading is not going to go away so soon I agree,, but the odds of win for a discretionary trader becomes so low that any 1 in his right mind would not look at it as a business,, Grey1

you obviously are new to this game,,,very new it seems.. get yourself a Neural net and keep all your inputs constant and optimise your out put ( exit) .. once done that then go back and edit your post above Grey1

Trend line like any other indicator is not predictive and only displays a historical behaviour of price action ,,All other indicators are the same,, All they tell you is market has been going up or down and nothing more,, the reason trend line work some times is same as throwing a coin and calling head and getting head, the gambler unconsciously attaches a technical or magical reason to calling it correctly ,, if you go to LAS VEGAS you see many many people with systems in their head which they believe it works because it has logical reasons behind it,, so what next if trend line does not work what works ? first you have to define what WORKS means,, i am 100% sure most of you guys already have a winning system which works but still looking for another one because most do not understand and know how to apply a correct RISK management to the strategy .. so i would suggest to understand risk analysis first then find a strategy with small edge ( the more edge the better but you wont be able to get more edge by reducing systematic risk only ) and apply your understanding of risk managment to your strategy and weeeeeeeeeeeeeee you got it ,,, now you are ready to tackle the market,,, Big challenge ahead but it well well worth it buddy pro study risk ,, dreamers continously chase new indicators, new software , new tip I am going to suggest a winning formula for those of you are serious about trading ,, 1) get yourself a platform such as TS so you can optimise your settings, 2) design a strategy which uses Price action to signal the market direction ( trend) .. look into exhaustion theory 3) get yourself a basic osciallor to give you a reasonable and technical entry such as CCI or FSST or similar ,, does not matter which one as they are more and less the same .. use FSST as it is more cycle dependent than CCI but if you have no access to FSST then use CCI or RSI 4) use both a technical and a MM exit for your strategy 5) optimise the strategy using the TS platform or neural net if you wish ,, 6) Forward test 7) Optimise your Exit strategy module further ( NO 4) 8 ) Forward test 9) Automate Grey1

100% mechanical trading is the future of the market,, there will be war of the codes making the market even more efficient resulting in discretionary trading becoming a thing of the past . Algo trading is not new and most business is done using codes,,, I use 100% aglo code myself Grey1

perfect risk managment strategy,,, Grey1

The very first thing a trader should realise is the fact that most moves in the market has fundamental reasons and TA is partially responsible for moves in the market,, you must understand and agree to this ,, On the technical side,, No indicator has the predictive ability to tell you when the end is ,, How ever there are few tell tale signs such as 1) if trend starts then it takes 3 waves for trend to to end. ( for get about elliot at this stage ) 2) if trend starts in lower time frame then look in higher time frame for price to get OB or OS example if 5 min chart is OB and is heading to OS then keep your eyes on 10 and 30 min to see how far they are from being OS 3) look for exhaustion ,,,, ( exhaustion theory ).. 2 consecutive exhaution is a good sign to mark the end of the trend I am running an algo based code which uses above to call the end of the trend Grey1

Hello The price exhaustion is the formation of Shooting star or hammer.. No volume what so ever... Most algo codes look for two consecutive exhaustions with a period of not more than 60 min to open a position .. This is the most reliable signal as far as TA is concerend... Using Exhaustion theories you can also calculate the risk of trade easily ... you find two exhaustion levels ( historically) as a bench mark and your risk will be the price differencial between the bench mark and the current price... you can also compare the risk to VWAP level to adjust yous pos size Grey1

Try to understand the market behaviour in terms of exhaustion rather than change of trend ,,, When price exhausts @ Certain LEVEL then direction changes ... price exhaustion is the back bone of any auction market. Most quantitative Algo's including the one used in our Bank uses exhaustion theories Grey1

just to help,,, before you code any stochastic based strategy you need to find a way of real time optimization of its settings other wise your settings become arbitrary and OB or OS does not mean any thing ,, hence all you buy sell signals going to be irrelevant to the market Grey1

if you are interested in high frequency scalping code then look no further than a mean reversion system in osc market. Use Spike in $vix as your entry criteria Grey1

If you are using Multi time frame you are better off to use a fast oscillator than a trend forllowing indicator Look for FTT in Multi Time Frame Grey1