wsam29

I don't know if you're read "Studies in Tape Reading" by Richard Wyckoff, but he used very tight stops in his trades for stocks. I mysely might even consider using a 5 tick stop, because the ratios would be 2:1 for me rather than 1:1 Jankovsky's book goes over the ratios of winning percentage and what kinda ratio you'll need to be a net winning trader.

My experiance there was good and bad. The bad part was they did not solve my issues at the time. I still went through a discovery period months after the "mentorship". I was more interested in the way HS traded because that was more of my temperment, just trade and get it over with. JC is more sit around and wait. There are pros and cons to their methods. The good part was I saw what they did. Even before going down, sitting in front of the computer all day is not the way to success, at first maybe to learn the ebbs and flows and the little subtle things, but after you pick all that up, its time to live a life away from the computers, and they did that everyday, 2 hour lunches. Heck I've taken up my old approach of just trade between 1000-1200h EST. It just reinforced what I did before I had my best month. My screw up after $10,000 in a month is another long story. It really boils down to you as a person coming to terms with who and how you trade and not copy what others do, take bits of what you like and good at and throw out the garbage. The way I trade is best for me. All this technical stuff we all talk about is a self fullfilling prophacey if enough traders believe and act upon it. If enough selling breeds more selling, then it will happen and vice versa for buying. Why, who cares, just jump on board and let the smart people tell you why prices moved. The things I noticed from those old school traders of Neill, Wyckoff and Livermore is this, they have more bits of widoms then hard set rules to trade. They employ common sense in their trading from what I observed. Nothing will ever beat a trader who employs good sound judgement in their trading decisions. Believe it or not, before getting to know the squeeze indicator, I was, back in my indicator years, thinking of ways to filter the BB for potential signals, they just beat me to it with the Keltner Channels addition. Trading is hard enough as it is, why complicate it even further with other things?

all futures contracts have 2 important dates. first notice and last trade. first notice is when the exchange gives all open positions a chance to close out their trades, if they remain open, it shows they want delivery or deliver the goods. last trade, is just that, the last day for that contract month to trade, if you don't clsoe your trade by this date, you will get assignment of your open trade. If it is a commodity, you'll get the goods dumped on your front lawn and if you are short, well then, guess you're gonna have to come up with the goods somehow. without getting your mind too wrapped up about this, just compare trade volume between months. Once the back month starts to trade more than the front month, its about roll-over time. Join the rest of the party in the back month. You'll even notice it from the price action, its not as smooth in the front month. last trade for index futures should be the 3rd friday every 3 months, triple witching as they call it, all three derivatives expire, index futures, stock options and index options.

There is nothing wrong with trading only the first half of the US session. You'd be surprised how much more you'd keep by not trading as much. There is nothing more brain screwing then giving up a plus day from a trade you did not have to take. Possible reasons, you were bored, wanted to prove yourself right, etc. You already made your money, why keep trading? Trading full-time does not mean you park your ass in front of the computer from 930-1615h. Some do it, but I cannot stand it. Two hours a day is good enough for me. The market is bound to do something in two hours between 1000-1200h. I'd hold that full-time job until you are COMFORTABLE with the fact that your income will not be stable like a 9-5er. Have so much saved up that you can endure some months where you don't make anything and live off that savings. If that scares you or you cannot financially do that, its gonna be tough trading full-time. I was fortunate to learn with OPM, other peoples money, but I also do not have what many people my age have because of the path I took. If you can have a string of losing trades, not think that is the end of the world, take a break from trading, go over and think about the mistakes you made, make a note not to repeat those mistakes, you're mentally getting there to trade full-time. Its tough enough figuring yourself out how to trade, you don't want to cloud your mind with ways of generating other sources of income at this stage. Once you know you can generate winning months after months, then start to think of other means of income other than trading.

I've been messing around with moving my stops to BE +1 after the market has moved so much, even if my exit target is not hit. Example. 10 tick stop for YM profit target of +11 YM moves +6/7 for me, I move my stop to BE +1, +1 to cover cost of commission. I figure, if the market wants to move, it will move and hit my target, if not, scratch trade and some mental energy exerted for the day.

Man, I don't want to rain in on anyone's parade but demo trading and real trading are two totally different things affecting your internal emotions. If one does want to get started in trading, start off small!!! Trading larger size is a right of passage, you have to earn it. Once real money is on the line, your head thinks completely different. With play money, you do not have the stress involved of dealing with lose since the lose is only play money. Heck I did great paper trading, came the real thing, I sucked ass until I came to terms with the psychological aspect to trading. Demo accounts are great for learning how to use the platform, other than that, you won't learn a damn thing (regarding handling of the stress and mental aspect of trading).

but the key is to have the flexibility to follow it.

Its not for everyone either. Studies in Tape Reading by Richard D. Wyckoff

After reading this book, it reinforced all the things I subconsciously picked up over the years of trading. Having not been introduced to tape reading, one does not know it exists and traders actually trade just looking at the tape. Having been "trained" as a chart trader, the be all and end all I thought at the time, I was looking for an edge or the holy grail, the progression of indicator searching begins! The stuff Humphrey writes about still happens today, almost 70 years since the first publication and 3 revisions. Humans will behave the same way no matter what, they did back in the 1900's and they will from here on it. I can now understand why there are indicators and charts, they were suppose to make trading easier but I have found that the market place and community is flooded with crap based on charts and indicators. Was the introduction of charts and indicators a means to stroke the creators ego because of their new found method? I believe so, not to mention fatten ones pocket from the distrubution of their new creation. Some topics that are covered in the book are the pace at which prices move, is an indication to do one of two things, stay in or get out. The quicker the tape moves, the quicker you should close a trade because the uninformed are most likey rushing in to make a quick buck from rapid tape action. He explains about volume, price relation and general bits of wisdom and commone sense one should employ when trading. The skill involved after learning about tape reading is real time interpretation of the tape as it is happening in real time. I'm glad I picked this book up after being introduced by Soultrader. I overpaid for it but its already returned dividends to me.

All it takes is for them to cancel to order to remove any supporting or resisting order. They do that stuff all the time on Level 2 for nasdaq stocks and I'm not surprised someone is doing it for the YM as well. But also think of it this way, at 450 lots, that's $2250 per tick. Were they trying to really sell rather than buy knowing that "newbies" would see that huge bid and go long the market. We'll never know, just speculate because they may have been offering the market on a smaller size. There was one thing I noticed a while ago, the levels were pretty thick for about 5 levels below the best bid around 200 lots each level, that support held, I don't know what the tape did, but prices rallied from that point.

I'll be honest, for as much as I know and the length of time I've been trading, I am still very prone to mental mistakes. John Carter said to me when I did the mentorship that my problem was coming up with a trading plan and I should be able to put in words and explain my entry set-ups. They also talk about thinking in terms of probabilities. Here's my issue, most of the trades that I "glance" at, without putting too much thought into them, turn out to be some of my best trades or no-trades. When I try to adhere to my so-called set-ups, I do very poorly, actually down right I just suck at it it. The hardest part is sitting arond and waiting for them to occur or not occur. Its my personality, I just want to get it over with so I can go on with a "normal" life, if there is such a thing when you are a trader or want to trade for a living as a profession. For poker I can sit there all night just waiting for the hands I like to play and consider if they are worth playing based on what other players do/bet. A great example if a retracement of a move for a "conservative" entry for possible price continuation in that direct. Everyone knows this is the ideal "set-up" for an entry of high probabilities. Here's where I have my problems and mistakes. I don't know the exact probability other than 50/50. It's not like a hand in poker you are dealt with, there are 52 cards in a deck and depending on your hand and the flop, that is how you know your probabilities of making a hand. These pullbacks can occur from many technical patterns, double bottoms, sideways channel break out, you name it. The problem I have when it comes to trading is the way I think when these "set-ups" occur. I always think they will work out and when they don't or the price does something that its not "suppose" to, I get mentally messed up. But I am following a "plan" that is not working so hot at the moment. I do admit, I spot dull and quiet markets quite will with my eyes and that may be my strength because I understand that "set-up". Its after the market has made its inital move that I get all messed up because the price may not continue in the same direction. (I just answered my own question here) My issue has always been my way of thinking, maybe I do too much of it when I am about to trade or wanting to trade. I ask myself this sometimes, "maybe I should try playing poker instead?" I always know when to fold a hand that has low odds of winning or "outs" as they call it. When I lose a hand that has many outs, I accept it with grace and when it wins, I understand the odds of making a hand are x and don't get excited one bit when it hits. Now if I can only transfer that mentality to trading, I am set for life. They have this lottery here in Ontario, Canada called "Cash for Life" the winner gets $1000 per week for the rest of their life until a certain age or when they bite the dust. Having that same mindset would be my "Cash for Life." Since I've never sat down at a poker table at a Casino, the thought of a "career" change is frightening because it is no home game that I am accustomed to. Also how much of a stake do I need to get started say at a 5/10 limit table? I need to really zen out and not think too much when its time to trade. Have absolutely no inner or outer conflict.

First off, let me have my say, they both clearly say, especially Hubert that their indicators are useless if you don't understand market internals. Which is very true. Their "squeeze" indicator is a simplified way or a mechanical way to give a trader the heads up that prices may explode in one direction or the other. For the new trader with the untrained eye, that is great, but once you recognize when markets are in a "quiet" period and due for an explosive move, you really dont need the squeeze. It's just a way/method of keeping your trading consistant because using your judgement may be eratic at times and provide inconsistant results to analyize what is wrong. Understand price action and market internals is more important than any indicator or system out there. Hubert even says using a chart and indicators are like crutches. The dude can trade, he's a tape reader, I've seen him do it first hand and you don't even realize he's trading because its so fast, but he is still human and mistakes are bound to happen. If anyone trader says they don't make mistakes, like Hubert says "run the other way" and get far away as possible from that trader, he's full of crap. Ever wonder how Jesse Livermore or Humphrey Neill trade back in the days with no computers or technology that we all have today? They understood price action and the psychology behind what was occuring and about to occur.

best advice when a market frustrates you like it did to me last week, is take some time off. I'm have not done a thing this week and will look back at the markets next monday.

What a tight range today...zzzzzzzzzzzz.

and yes, I used to trade when I was bored.

Here are my thoughts regarding boredom and trading. If you have a method that you know is successful and you are a profitable trader, there is no reason to trade because you are bored. When you trade because you are bored, you either do not have a method that is successful and therefore you trade for the desire of being right. This is no different than playing a pot in poker with a junk hand but you over bet the pot and have gotten yourself too invested in the pot and cannot walk away from, outcome, you end up losing money. Losing money does not bother you, its the fact you made a dumb play to begin with whether that be in poker or trading. I don't know about everyone else but I hate sitting in front of this computer for more than 4 hours a day when the market is open.

And if you live in Toronto, its stay inside and keep warm!

You know what I noticed when I plot floor trader pivots to NYSE stocks, they trade pretty well off them. I don't have real time to NASDAQ or other exchanges. Try it yourself, this is the Tradestation floor trader pivot indicator that plots the levels on its own based on the previous days close.

all he had were aces and no other possible hands other trip Aces or 2 pair to improve hand, well you could include the full house, but long shot. we had about the same amount of chips but knowing him, he would have gone all in to put the pressure back onto me. I also factored in that was my 3rd buy-in so I was mentally tired as well. his kicker was not very strong either, I don' recall what kicker. I just knew I had many cards that would have helped my hand. any heart any K and long shot of runner, runner of Q, 10 on either the turn or river. He knew the moment he saw my hand that I had many outs, so he must have been somewhat worried or even thinking his call was a wrong bet. But it all worked out for him. That was the only hand I took a chance on. After I lost I just said "Man how do people play in tournaments" because I was somewhat mentally drained even playing against those "fish"

I felt bad for taking them so seriously, but yeah, that is all they are about, who has the bigger balls to play marginal hands. At the end of the night, one girl asked me how much I won from them? I was gonna be a smart ass and say "they basically gave it away." But I said "I don't play for money." She replied "well I do." Boy do they have lots to learn. The losers will always say they are playing for entertainment. I had to take myself out of the 3rd buy-in just to make it look like I was not there for the money. Then again it was a good hand and the flop gave me a lot of outs and I was heads up against my friend who has an idea how to play so I semi bluffed him hoping he would fold and if not I had outs. Just to go over the hand the best I can and you be the judge if I played it right. first to act, I raise with a Q,10 suited hearts, everyone folds other than my friend. He raises to 3 bets and I call. I didn't think of the possible hands I just thought he was representing strength. Flop comes out J, A, hearts and some other card that did not help my hand. I stopped to think, if I check I show weakness, but I had many possible outs I had and the size of the pot and the amount of chips I had. 4 hearts on the board and many possible hands to improve my hand. I just bet all in and put the pressure back on him. He stopped to think and called my bet. Even though I lost, I thought I played that hand pretty well considering I had many outs and the size of the pot justified taking that risk. But thanks for another tip, I did not try to bluff them out of hands because they are just that, amateur's.

Welcome aboard. I am sure you have just as many war stories as me...do tell.

It feels so nice that I won 2 of 3 buy-ins. Then again, they beat themselves. Oh how amateurs think. Played tight all night, protected my chips when I didn't have a hand and folded hands I could not win. They beat themselves by over betting a hand when the pot was not worth betting for.

You're helping (analyzing) yourself already and you don't even know it. Day trading may not suit your personality. Don't force a style of trading onto yourself if it is not working. If you lose money, stop doing it. Remember what I said before, "in order to make money, you need to stop losing money" or somewhere along those lines. How you come to terms of stopping the "harmful" actions is up to you, but that is the key to being a net winning trader. Level playing fields in FX, I think not, there are some who do get FX volume, you can spot where the "big money" is coming into the market to take your money. All volume does is confirm if there are players or not because if you get more volume in your direction, you have a pretty good chance your trade will work out. It's not a shoe in, but you will have the edge. I am so glad to here you junked the technical indicators that are mathematical based. You definately are on the right path. Just remember you will not succeed at this game if you quit.

There is no point having a trading plan if you cannot follow it. You can't follow the plan because you don't understand why you need to follow the rules. It's a viscious circle of "you won't get it, until you get it". My eiphany occured after reading his book. And believe me, its already had a huge impact on my trading results. What your main objective is as a new trader is to understand yourself. The only way to do that is to lose money. From losing money, you learn what not to do in order to make money. In order to make money you need to follow the rules. When you follow the rules you will be able to follow your plan.

I'm not Soultrader but I will explain this thanks to Jason Alan Jankovsky's book. Volume is what drives prices higher or lower. Volume is caused by some other trader who is either getting into or out of a trade. Spot FX being an unregulated market does not have a centralized exchange to post volume. eSignal provides volume to their FX data. Price patterns alone do not tell the full story, what you need to be aware of is the volume in relation to the price pattern to get a higher probabiltiy of one thing happening more than the other. I have tried trading FX just off price patterns because "thats all the FX market has to look at." Lets just say I am not a big fan of the FX market, not because I cannot trade it but rather the lack of infomation. I have found that understanding trading psychology and behavior yields much greater results than relying on technical patterns and indicators to decide what course of action or inaction to take. The way to see that behaviour is through the analysis of just price and volume. There is alway some discretion to your trading, you still need to decide to take the trade or not when you think about it.