gosu

Calling this trader of 20 years a "veteran" depends on what you mean by "veteran." I would describe him as someone who has traded for 1 year and just repeated that first year 19 times. Maybe you should suggest to him that he take a walk on the wild side and add a contract for 2 contracts. Then again, why bother.

It is not something I have control over. I've accepted it as a condition I have to live with until my time is up.

I mean that I know the "size" (or the extent) of the gap compared to recent gaps and where the gap will put the open relative to containers, horizontals and sloped lines carried over from the prior session on RTH charts. Your interpretation of what I said is a reasonable one and I could have easily stated it in that natural way. Instead, I chose to state it in an apparently convoluted way not because I was inebriated but because I wanted to be precise and not just good enough for conversation. I did not use the qualifier "most of the time" for a reason. Since I trade on knowledge and not probabilities, "most of the time," even if that means 91% in a backtest involving 1000 days, is not good enough for me to rely on. I need to know that what I am monitoring either IS or IS NOT. It is perfectly fine to answer "I really don't know" or "I don't know yet." The base of my statement without parentheticals is, I know the RTH session will have a high and a low and one of them will be made in the AM. I go into every open knowing this is how the market "works." Call it a market truth that I rely on without any qualification. However, I do add a warning to the operator's manual, the "single caveat" in the second parenthetical of my statement. The single caveat is, "Be on the lookout for an exceptional day." You wrote a good post. Cheers.

Hi joshdance, I parsed your post below. You also mentioned that you don't consider a fixed 60 minute window (like the MP "IB"), for example, but that rather you have three general periods of varying length, depending on the day: morning, midday, and afternoon. This needs correcting slightly. I did not state that I don't consider 60m fixed durations; I do monitor 60m bars. I stated that I do not use a strict 60m test like Dalton in testing for the formation of an extreme after the open. In other words, I don't consider the first 60 minutes of the RTH session any more significant than the first 65, 73, 82, 94 minutes, etc. I do divide the RTH session into 3 parts, as you correctly state. The most important of the three for me is the AM, the end of which is a window between 8:40 and 9:00 pacific time, or 8:50 for convenience. I follow what you are saying and it would indeed be very tidy if the market were a continuous function from one day to the next. Going to the AS (all sessions) perspective is one way to do that. Unfortunately, the drop off in participation cannot be disregarded in practice. We know the market just does not trade the same outside of RTH. The Hershey group is on the other end of the spectrum and disregards the AS entirely, connecting the prior RTH close with the current RTH open via removing any and all gaps. They have even succeeded in convincing a software vendor to include an option for automatic gap removals. I've found neither approach completely satisfactory. My "solution," if I can call it that, is to monitor on both AS and RTH charts (without gap adjustment) and to be aware of the market's position on both. Don't forget the most important difference of all: the cash market being in session. The stock index futures market is the mere handmaiden of the cash market. As stated previously, I do monitor 60m bars. I also monitor the AS dailies, which are equivalent to 1440 minute bars. On the weekend, I chart the weeklies (5 days) and monthlies for the cash market to get a broader perspective. Thus I do get your point and am already doing as you suggest. To me it is both: a separate unit because of the step-up in participation with the opening of the cash market and an extension of the AS activity leading up to the cash open. This sounds like a request for me to do work. LOL.. Unfortunately, I wouldn't know where to begin to try to expound on anything because I have not organized my thoughts in any formal manner (i.e., by writing). My comments regarding how a day begins that you reference happened to be a spur of the moment post triggered by someone's reference to a 65% chance of the day's high having been made while I saw an AM p3 of the long upcoming with a resumption to follow. My dubiousness led to a request of the source of his percentage and when I got the details I recognized the truth behind the concept sans the arbitrary 60m parameter. It would please me a good deal to be able to meet your request but I am aware of my personal limitations and that of the medium we're communicating through. Also add the fact that I'm here to relax and just shoot the shit. I post things rather indiscriminately and if anyone finds something useful in what I post it is purely accidental. I've had a few beers and so I will end with a hodgepodge of things concerning the AS/RTH delineation that pop into my head. Going into the cash (RTH) open, I'm unambitious and do not seek to know how the DAY will go but just the AM. I follow the AS activity leading up to the cash open and I have the greatest number of KNOWNS on my side than at any other point in the trading session. I know the overnight sentiment and whether it is continuation/change from yesterday's RTH session. I know the relative extent of the gap before the cash open. I know at cash open there will be a surge in volume and volatility relative to the AS activity leading up to the open. I know the RTH session will have a high and a low and one of them (and on rare days both of them) will be made in the AM (with a single caveat). I know every trading day has a volatility that is correlated with volume and the day's place within the ST trend. I know within the day the AM volume is the most consistent in its high amplitude relative to the other parts of the day. I know therefore the default AM condition is range expansion. I know the midday volume is the most consistent in its low amplitude. I know therefore the default midday condition is congestion. I know "default" means that it is the condition unless it is visibly clear that it is an exceptional day - AM congestion or midday BO w/ increasing volume. I know this is not a complete list, so add your own, or even better, put one together yourself. Cheers. :beer:

Not for all days, just for the 2 exceptional days. See the spreadsheet. I didn't find anything revelatory, nor did I expect to because this is familiar territory. If this is new territory for you, I'm sure you'll learn more by looking into it yourself. Feel free to PM if you have any other questions.

I have no backtested data arriving at some %, but my experience is in line with the Market Profile concept in your post. However, I do not use a strict 60m test. I just go into every RTH session "knowing" that the market will make one extreme in the AM and, once made, the market will move away from that extreme in the other direction expanding the range until congestion (usually midday). If congestion begins or arrives during the AM, I know the first extreme will likely be tested later usually in BO/FBO modus. For me, none of this has to do with percentages or odds. I just know this is how the market "works" and is something I don't even think about. Your post brought it to the attention of my consciousness and just for shits and giggles I browsed all 30 trading days of the current ES contract and this is what I found: On 24 out of 30 days (80%), at least one extreme was made within the first 60 minutes. On 28 out of 30 days (93.33%), at least one extreme was made within the first 90 minutes. The result did not change by expanding to 120 minutes. On the 2 days where the RTH extremes were made beyond the first 90 minutes, the extreme made during the first 90 minutes was exceeded by 1 tick. On these 2 days, congestion either began or occurred within the AM (before 8:50 pacific time). Cheers.

Cool. No one is stopping you. Carpe diem. That's a nice way of putting it. Hmm, not sure about that. You have to think for yourself and rely on your own judgment and that's less likely if you allow yourself to be influenced by others. Trading is an individual effort. You are asking for a lot! LOL Making calls is not my thing, but if we had access to a chatroom on this site where things could be posted faster, I would be open to "thinking out loud." Maybe that will happen in the future. Cheers. :beer:

In my gobbledygoop, the sequence was: dom R2L (full traverse)--->nondom retrace (I am looking to sell 71.50, or thereabouts, if it looks right.)--->@RTL [TIME to short here] (I see no sell there. What are you using as your signal?)--->resumption R2L--->FTT [means do not be short, exit or reverse]--->retrace (nondom)--->BO (dom/nondom switch to long) (Got 71.50, half normal position as I do not want to get steamrolled -- only giving it 5 ticks or so.)--->going to p2--->@RTL of larger fractal--->BO of larger container RTL (Well, out for -5 ticks, this is why I put on half a position. Not much skin here.) and (Obviously something which was not reliable in this case! )--->p2 of new container--->retrace (nondom)--->p3, etc.

Hi roztom, next time play this it might help with the spinning. Especially the finger wag at 0:28. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJv5qLsLYoo]Dead or Alive - You Spin Me Round (Like a Record) - YouTube[/ame]

65%? Are you rolling dice? How did you arrive at such a figure, or any figure at all?

Here's a suggestion: Don't SPAM your own site with recycled posts that displace real posts by current users in the "Latest Posts" section. It is rather annoying to have to search for the threads I was reading earlier and the ploy reeks of desperation on the part of the owner of the site. Is the site hurting that badly for content that you have to bring posts back from the dead? Or maybe it's a not-so-subtle jab at the current posters that our posts suck. LOL.. In any case, how about making it less user-unfriendly to keep up with current threads no matter how unworthy they may be?

Dear Spooky, I've parsed your post and replied below. Hopefully you did not detect any accusatory tone coming from me that you are soliciting because there was none on my part. I was just curious because you were designated with the golden C. Thanks for satisfying my curiosity. Dealing with days when we are not at our best is far more important than days when we are "ON", which require little attention. There is no perfection in this business and I do not put much stock (pun intended) into any given trade or day. My goal is to string together good weeks that add up to good months that add up to a good year. Bad days do happen, and they are not a big deal. With regard to the 30 days, I have no suggestions. For me, I see little benefit to me or to others in my going public with trades, but I can understand your difference of opinion and commend you for your desire to help struggling ES traders. I can vouch for the first sentence from my own experience, and your comments regarding the futures industry in general are in alignment with my own thoughts on the subject, although I don't think much about it. I know little about "auction market trading" or market profile and, to be candid, have not much more than a passing interest. I see the posts on this site that use vocabulary I'm unfamiliar with and I sometimes make an effort to figure out the gist of what is being said and that's about it. I have my own way of trading, call it a method or a system, but it cannot be separated from the mind making the decisions. Therefore, my experience is derived from a similar path as yours. The way I see it, in the beginning it is good to copy someone who knows how to do it but eventually everyone has to develop his own style in order to reach a level of expertise. Comic relief is good. There is too little of it in trading and I do look to infuse some humor into my posts but it's likely too dry for most people's tastes. Today being tax day, however, I'm in less of a humorous mood than usual. I've had clients in my former employment but not in the financial industry. With reference to where you are in the bigger picture, I meant that you are at a place where posting live calls and garnering attention/validation/recognition/etc. from others with regard to your trading skill is still in the picture for you. I was in a similar place when I left my former profession and I wanted others to know I was doing well. It's not my style to drive around in a sports car or buy a mansion but I did reveal to others my blotters of $100,000+ days and my trading account balance because at the time it wasn't enough for me to be able to do it without others knowing that as well. In the realm of the trading message board where anyone can be anything he wants, calling live trades seems to be standard. For me, nothing good came of revealing results. I'm no longer where I was, and regardless of the result on a particular day I feel good knowing that I'm doing what I like. Outside of close family, no one is the wiser as to what I do. I like the fact of being anonymous and chewing the fat on a message board is enough for me at this point. Not at all. Your thoughts were organized and conveyed the points you intended very well. Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

Maybe you should consider a Rule 1(a): making calls on a message board to make a display of trading prowess is an unnecessary drag on clear thinking. I can see someone doing it once in awhile for shits and giggles, and I myself have engaged in it in the past. But to commit to doing it for 30 days reveals where you are in the bigger picture. I do see the golden C underneath your ID. I'm not making a judgment regarding the propriety or impropriety of you being a vendor, but I'm curious what you offer commercially - books, courses, services, etc. Regardless, I enjoy your posts and the interaction it causes among the members, some of it hilariously entertaining (e.g., the Phantom menace of TL versus the Jedi steve46).

OK. But these are things that can happen at any price. I was just curious what you meant by "reaction" in reference to 90/92.

It's just another trend day, and they have been occurring more frequently as of late. The most recent analog to today is 4/12 last Thursday.

So...a reaction can be purely volume based with prices continuing in the same direction or a sharp move in price in the opposite direction without regard to volume?

"Reaction" means what exactly?

Yes, limiting oneself to intraday has its disadvantages when the larger fractal looks so ripe.

And nice job to you Phantom of leading the cheer. But making snide remarks about another's request is unbecoming of a head cheerleader. You do not add anything to the Spookster's calls so if you can limit yourself to smiling and jumping up and down and baring your ass a little, the people in the stands watching will appreciate it. Cheers.

stevie, you need to read more carefully. I "heard" Spooky and I "heard" you and what I "heard" was that you weren't talking about the same things. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with the man, but my point is you should at least figure out what he's saying first. You heard him use the term "spike" and it conjured up all sorts of images in your head and what he said didn't jibe with those images and so you rushed in blasting with both barrels. Now you can stick to your guns and continue to talk about YOUR definition of "spikes" and their "context" and characteristics and such in this thread but all you're going to do is piss people off and make yourself look like an idiot. It's all up to you, however. Also, my "rapidity" comment was not in reference to your post as your post doesn't even contain the term "rapid" as his does. See if you can understand that you are not the center of attention here. If you make your own thread, I'm sure people will go there and ask questions.

You two boys are unfortunately using the same term "spikes" to describe different things. It is not immediately obvious that you're doing that because neither of you gives an explicit definition of what you mean by "spikes" and we're left to figure that out by reading about how they are "created" or by looking at a chart purportedly showing them. To be fair to stevie, I had to do a double take when I read about the "spike" at the end of Friday because I too am used to the familiar usage of the term "spike" being a sharp move followed by a sharp retrace, or as the candleschtick people say, a long "wick." I'm not saying the term can't be used any other way and for all I know Dalton's usage of the term may be more common and I'm not aware of it. In any case, from what I'm understanding here is that a "spike" can only occur at the end of the day, what I call the PM, and specifically cannot include a retrace and indeed its chief characteristic is a lack of a retrace before the close of the session. OK, got it, Prof. As for the "rapidity" of the move, it's not all clear to me what is meant by this because the "spike", what I would call the PM BO (break out) from midday consolidation, was not much more "rapid" than the move to start the RTH, which according to the definition used by the spooky professor can't be a "spike" because it began the trading session and didn't end it. Of course I'm not looking to put words in anyone's mouth and am open to being corrected.

The amount of starting capital depends on the starting conditions. Learning on one's own without the guidance of someone who can not only do it but also show how to do it is never ideal, and it is difficult to put a number on the amount that is required because much depends on sheer luck. Even under ideal conditions, the goal in the beginning is to preserve trading capital while acquiring knowledge, skill, and experience which is best done by building on incremental successes. There ought to be no expectation of "making a living" from trading profits initially and indeed the amount for personal needs have to come from a source other than trading. For learning intraday trading of, say, stock index futures, the time required during the day in front of the screens is an opportunity cost that cannot be overcome by most who have to sell their labor for income in the general economy. Here are some comments regarding what I consider ideal learning conditions for someone starting from ground zero, including the amount of starting capital. Were I to make a commitment to work with someone, I would require the person to have 2 years of personal living expenses prepared and initial trading capital of no more than $5,000. In today's environment of $500 intraday margins, I would even go as low as $2,000 to open the account but then the selection of brokers gets limited. Currently, I see $4,000 is required to open an account with at least one broker offering an execution platform at no additional cost. We would begin by trading 1 contract with the mutual agreement that I cover all losses from the starting account while learning under my guidance. Covering the learner's mistakes is not purely for altruistic motives but to make the time spent more effective by taking the thought of loss off the table and to make clear that his only goal is to follow instructions since it is my time and money on the line. Inability or unwillingness to follow instructions ends the relationship. After orienting the learner to the screens and how annotating is done on the charts, we start actual participation by doing a drill called the wash drill. We watch the screens together and I monitor aloud and announce the sentiment, dominance, and certain market events. We are anticipating continuation events and in particular what is called an AM p3 (point 3) which is the focus of the beginner's wash drill. The drill is to enter on the AM p3 in the direction of dominance and to wash the trade (exit at breakeven +/- 2 ticks ES). Sometimes it becomes apparent soon after entering that a wash won't be available soon. In this case, we wait out the AM and either wash if it becomes available or exit at the end of the 8:50 bar and just call it a wash. The drill is repeated every day until the initial capital is doubled. Upon the first doubling, the learner withdraws his initial capital and spends it in any way he wants. The only thing he can't do with it is leave it in the account and increase his trading size. That comes with the next account doubling, when another ES contract is added for 2 contracts. At this point all handholding ceases and he trades on his own. I would recommend adding additional contracts sequentially until 5 is reached and then dwelling there (at least 1 long-term market cycle) while sweeping the account monthly to just get used to that routine until "making a living" drops out of the picture and the truth appears that it has always been about the use of time.

Thanks for the clarification. Here's to better trading days ahead for you. Cheers. :beer:

I'm not saying you had bad intent or that it was intentional at all. I'm sure it was inadvertent. I think rozom is a different type of bird. In any case, we all see things from our own perspective. I just pointed out the view from where I sit. Cheers.:beer:

If I understand correctly, you were short and encouraging a person who wants to learn from you to stay long? I know we're all big boys here and responsible for our own trading decisions, and joshdance you strike me as a decent guy, but this seems very uncool to me.