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gosu
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Everything posted by gosu
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With regard to indicators and such, there is more than one way to skin a cat. The important thing is that you trust your method and I see that you do. While my views are not fully aligned with everything in your post, I can appreciate it nonetheless.
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This is quite adept.
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Your description is for the underlying, the S&P500 index. The ES is a futures contract. You would get closer to describing what it is by saying what a futures contract is.
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I haven't seen an article on the "Seven Habits of Ineffective Trading Educators" or even an article on the "Seven Habits of Effective Trading Educators." I don't wonder why. It's better for business to blame the fish for, well, being a fish. Judging by the comments, it looks like the fish are always bitin'.
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You've got cajones. :rofl:
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I just checked. It was the previous quarter to the last one that they missed. Last quarter was blowout earnings.
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Exactly. They missed last time, didn't they?
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AAPL usually reports after cash close and before futures close. It's always fun to see the market go nuts. I'll watch from the sidelines on this one. I don't do coin flips. But if I were betting, it's a nondom day so...I'd bet on the resumption short.
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It's all about AAPL earnings now, so I doubt the day's range will be expanded further. Volume has dried up and the indicies are in a lateral. I call this centering. High risk.
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I don't know...notwithstanding the bounce in the PM, AAPL has been in a dump all day. More telling, the ST trend has been decisively short as well. In any case, these earnings releases are all leaked before hand, or at least people are given the "wink wink."
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Exactly the stuff I was thinking about. Next thing I know, I have to remember birthdays and junk.
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What does it entail? I don't know if I like this site all that much to stick around longer. LOL..
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Yes I see that. I know you were leaning short and was just making a cute remark about the dizzy part.
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This is a single caveat day-->going to test first extreme. (1362.75) Of course, we all make our own trade decisions. PS. What is an incoming friend request?
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Nope. The room spins only for the person doing the spinning. At least you ended up on the right side.
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It's all in the components. They're correlated to begin with before comparing charts. SPX sits in the middle between NDX and INDU. I liked it when there were no NDX stocks in the DOW 30. The comparison was "purer" without overlapping components.
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It is good to link a course of action to a specific goal. A lot of people who fall by the wayside can't get straight that their course of action won't lead them to their stated goal, or even worse, they don't really know what their goal is and are just following the path others are taking because they at least have the company of a group.
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Now that the RTH session is complete, we see that the day will not show up as an outlier on a backtest. In other words, the AM contains one of the extremes for the day. I am not into hindsight analysis. Today's session is nondom and I know this not from looking back on the day after it's over. I knew it from the AM and I know that in a nondom session the possibility exists for a resumption. This is why the "premise" you took away from our exchange is not something I subscribe to. To use my gobbledygoop, the PM BO was a short that reversed into a FBO which went to a BO of the upper limit of the AM range. As the session grew older and older, it became more and more apparent that a resumption would not occur. Nonetheless, for me the possibility of today being a "neither" on a backtest was on the table for most of the day. The most recent analog to today is 4/9.
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Of course we are both interested in the actual trading. Neither of us are paid for just thinking alone or even explaining to others what we think. Our approaches are different. You look for individual trade ideas. I want to know the market's operating point. Once I know that, an entire set of trade ideas are present and it is just a matter of choice. In any case, my use of the word "premise" was a short-hand reference to your specific midday "premise" or "trade idea" or "tradeable hypothesis." I do not object to the use of the word itself if that is what you mean.
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Yes, you are right, you have misunderstood what I've attempted to convey completely. LOL.. There is no "premise" that one extreme of the AM will be tested during midday, although that can and often happens. I am interested in how the AM unfolds, and by extension, the midday, and by further extension the PM. The AM unfolds by making an extreme that holds as one of the day's extremes and moving away from that extreme until congestion, usually midday. I know this is how the market "works." The single caveat says, there are exceptional days when I have to know not to think in my normal way. (On backtesting these days often but not always stand out as outliers.) That's all that I've said. The "premise" is something you've come up with. I am not blaming you for misunderstanding. I am aware of my personal limitations and that of the medium we're using.
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I knew with the early congestion in the AM. With regard to the gap, large overnight moves also extend into the AM after the cash open, so the "exceptional" day under the single caveat is not directly gap related. I say "not directly" because recent large overnight moves were "dominant" and the RTH session has been left with the nondom portion on the ST fractal. Thus, the recent cycling of dom/nondom on the AS is something to be aware of. Check out 4/4 and 4/9. Both RTH sessions followed dom overnights. 4/9 falls under the single caveat, although it does not come under the "neither" category on a backtest.
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Today falls under the single caveat.
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I do not subscribe to your premises but I appreciate you putting in some effort in your response. Carry on.
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I hear statements like this a lot and I always wonder what it means.
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How Much Would You Pay to Learn from a Veteran Trader?
gosu replied to brownsfan019's topic in Futures
I have no idea about whether or not he is a good person to learn from. My comment was to the fact your friend is trading the MINIMUM after 20 years. Now, if he's still figuring things out, he should be trading the minimum. But you don't portray him as a person still figuring things out. You say it's not a hobby for him and that he's earned his living, achieved everything he wants, has nothing prove, has an abundance of money, etc. The fact remains, however, that he has not graduated beyond trading the MINIMUM after 20 years. TWENTY YEARS! Curiously, you don't reveal what he's been trading for 20 years. With $10,000, it is obviously not the big S&P. For me there's something not quite right about the picture you portray of this hugely successful 1-LOT trader. I admit it is because of my personal view of things.