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estate1997
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Everything posted by estate1997
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Peter,
Sorry about the long delay. I am still at it with various success.
To complete a strategy in TS you have to fight the data transfer. Arrrg.
Hope things are well with you also,
Scott /estate1997
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Technical Analysis: Is it voodoo? Or does it work?
estate1997 replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
Logic. I concur and it is not easy to find the correlation but when you do it is gold. The market is rigged from my perspective so you need to look at things not like all the other traders. -
daytrader999, From my view point your wandering around looking for stocks. Focus on a small group of stocks and learn how they move. If you see an opportunity today, don't wait till the next day to trade. By the time you enter the move is completed. Make sure your stops are held on your computer and not on the broker computer. Market makers see them and they are easy money for them. Stick to high volume stocks that cannot be manipulated so easy. Learn first on a sim account for months prior to putting cash on the line. If I had only one indicator to use it would be Linear Regression Channel. Set the length to 10 and ATR to 1.1. Good luck
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I am glad you like them but i am sorry the code is a mess. Such is the way I think. Scattered. Don't forget to play with the amplitude to tune your charts. Once it is done you don't have to play with it again. Also watch for the color changes on longer charts. It will see things that you can't. I say longer charts as they will bait you on shorter charts and take out your stops. May I suggest putting the stochastic on a 13 or 16 length Kase chart. You should find the big picture trend there. The bottoms and tops are hard to mistake. Best of trading to you,
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The purple is divergence, price is increasing/decreasing and volume is going the opposite direction. If I recall correctly the yellow looks at the stochastic and foretells of a change. Depending on how fast you accelerate the stochastic, it sees when it is way over extended. Readings at -33.33 or tops at 133.33 . The amplitude adjustment is to get the plot to move more. If you look at the historical plots you can adjust the height of the plot with these. You can tune the charts and find some very great turning points. A word of caution, don't use a length of 1 unless you want a floating point error which can lead to crashes. Try these. You may find some value. TRADERS LAB.ELD
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Try this. No support but has most of the bells and whistles you could hope for. STO HULL V1.ELD
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Looks like I messed up again. Back to coding.
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I appreciate all your posts and comments. Thank you all. For any of you that stay up late and follow the ES market. I am showing a current high tonight at 1287.50 with a minimum of a 6 point drop. That can change with a single bar close. The low will be revealing or turning point will reveal itself later. I'll post the low if I am still up. I won't know the bottom till I get some bars closing. The purpose of this is hopefully get across that the market is not random as so many believe. Best of luck
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I would if I could but they are sitting on a loose hard drive in my closet so I have no available screen shots. Here is another occurrence, a Square of Nines indicator will plot the top real time on the Kase 1.25 chart. It will lead the top on the Kase 1.0 chart. All my post refer to to the ES.
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If you look at the above posts I mentioned three people that have found it and we all use different charts. Find the tick feed charts that fit your eye and start to look at the correlations of your oscillator of choice. I tried over 100 of them till I made my own. 15 months from the time I made my own to get here and another 4 months and it should be automated. Nothing in life is free. Expect many false paths but back up and head in another direction. Defeat is found within yourself and listening to skeptics. One last thing, be like Smith Barney and earn it.
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[quote name= A really important aspect to the success or failure of a strategy is to many what is the 'peripheral' information. How to make a good system work. Most of you will have heard the trading adage or a variation of it that "No system can win all of the time". Think about this for a minute. Why is that? All things equal' date=' couldn't there be a system that wins all of the time? No. All things aren't equal and the trading landscape is constantly changing and undulating. This is also why markets aren't random as some suggest. Phase Location There are systems that will win all the time. I know of three systems. They are based on momentum bars, Kase bars, and P&F bars. They all use cycles and multiple charts. The only time they will loose is due to operator error in my case. I know that two are working on full automation but it is complex problem to have a program read the numbers like a human mind. If markets are so random, why would I send out an email Thurs. at 5:45 PM telling a few friends that good news is coming and give them a new high target price for Friday on the ES which they hit. They, the people in control set these things up way in advance so traders will buy or sell from their tech analysis. Any randomness comes from stop chasing and poor decisions. An example of their control is price volume divergence. How does price keep going up when everyone is dumping their contracts? The reason as I see it is that they have to hit a certain predetermined price which is set prior to the market turning down. To see their control in Trade Station, use their Mov Avg Exp Ribbon indicator across several charts of your choosing. They will go through hoops to get things lined up for their next large move. One more example is what I call a post. "They will run the price up 4 points and rapidly move it back down. That will be a pivot point for trend lines for a down move. The bottom after a large move always has the same set up with Kase charts. So to wrap it up. yes there is a Grail and your worst enemy is yourself. You just have to pay attention to what they are telling everyone who knows what they are saying. We are just mice to the cats in this game. Good luck
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Urma, I think I have to disagree with number 1. If you follow the path and answer the question of why there is divergence in the first place you will find what drives the market. Any of those indicators can be made to to show the true turning point with cycles. Number two. Your volume divergence is a great indication that the market will be changing direction but volume divergence can go for quite a while. The volume divergence is caused by most traders thinking the price direction will change. Why are they wrong? If there are more people selling than buying how is it possible for the price to continue up? Have you ever wondered why that sometimes you will only get one tick at the top or bottom? Why the new low is .25 higher than the prior low on the ES? Why the price can run up and down 4 points in a matter of minuets. Could there be something more powerful than market makers at work? I say yes. Cycles.
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You are mostly correct in everything you say and 100% correct in your reality. If everyone saw things the same way it would be a very boring life. Diversity in people is what makes life fun. Can we agree to disagree? Back to the forum; Anyway, I found a programer and he was duly impressed with the results. Its' not Bill Gates but I'll settle with a small percentage of his fortune. Thanks to all and have a Merry Christmas
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SunTrader, They may not watch them but they sure know how to manipulate price to get people to go the wrong way and make money. Does a 96% failure rate sound familiar. My views are from the reality as I see it and I believe it is well founded.
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Tams, I am reluctant to post the code in an open forum and after rereading my posts, what you are looking for besides a silver platter is there. It may be a bit cryptic and there is one missing function that is the magic that makes it simple to read but it will get you heading in the right direction. If you wonder why it has taken this long to get to this point it is because I started with an indicator that would plot up to 92 plots per bar giving 92 raised to the power of 92 possibilities. Finding the needle was not easy. Here is the snippet of the sending code. I can say no more about that. If RevSize=4 then begin Value10=GVSetNamedDouble("Magic_4",Magic); Value11=GVSetNamedDouble("ExH_4",ExH); Value12=GVSetNamedDouble("ExL_4",ExL); Value13=GVSetNamedDouble("Bar_Color_4",Bar_Color); Value14=GVSetNamedDouble("ExS_4",ExS); Value17=GVSetNamedDouble("ExS_Color_4",ExS_Color); Value18=GVSetNamedDouble("HL_Color_4",HL_Color); If you embrace my philosophy that there is a group that sets the highs and lows for the day and watch how the price is manipulated by market makers to get people and programs to do certain things it will take a lot of the stress out of trading. Code your indicators to flash at decision points and you will eventually see it. Just a suggestion.
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There are many draw backs to P&F charts. One is you will get perfect plots when the bar closes leading to euphoria in a back test with historical data. In addition once you start bringing data in from other charts you are unable to back test as with any type of chart. The main benefit is two fold. Market makers do not see or don't care what you see so they can't manipulate signals on you and get you entering the opposite direction of where they want to take the market. I am sure you have all seen if you have color changing indicators where they will tap a sell signal and take the market up or vice versa.. Like in the post above, the main benefit is on the long charts. With an extended range stochastic indicator the tops and bottoms are simple to pick out. What I like about them if you are into cycles is that you can see when the market comes into phase and you will then know that it will start to run. Add multiple charts and you can see just how far the run will go to the tick. Very nice stuff to know. With two short lines of code and a sharp eye this can be picked up. Time to go.I'll return.
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Tams, Here is the concept. For each length on a P&F chart it MUST complete its' cycle before the market can move on higher or lower. When a group of cycles come into phase, ie: they all read the same number from my indicator the market will move either up or down till it completes the next highest cycle. Here is my problem. I am not a professional programmer and I have been working on this for 14 months. I have spoken to two different programmers and they either hate P&F charts or can't get a handle on the concept. The entries are easy coding. It is the exits that I am stuck on. From the screen shots I posted above I hope you can see the potential. I can read it but I haven't been able to code the exits. What I need is a confidential off line partner, paid or not, that has coding experience that can code a triple sort from 40 plus groups of numbers. The second sort is dependent on the results of the first sort and the third sort is dependent on the results of the second sort. From the last sort the exit can be obtained. After that code in DLL and lock the code down. Then work on the money management. Beyond the concept I am reluctant to post any more information than the concept as I don't want to kill the goose if you catch my drift. If your up for it, lets do it. If not maybe you know someone. Thank you and have a Merry Christmas
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Is there anyone out there that works with Point and Figure charts? I have gone through the posts and have not found a soul. I have been working on a strategy for a long time and have been having some success. https://picasaweb.google.com/estate1997/TradersLab?authuser=0&authkey=Gv1sRgCLW9kv37kuSCZQ&feat=directlink What I could use is some help with someone that is working with cycles, P&F charts, and does not think in the box. I can trade the numbers by eye much better than the strategy and would like to partner up to get to the final version. Some things you'll need; Trade Station platform a computer that can handle 40 plus charts plotting up to 60 days and some coding experience. Let me know. Tams, Any interest? I value your input.
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Smoothing Color Change in MA Signal Line ?
estate1997 replied to Aston01's topic in Technical Analysis
Use the juric formula to smooth your MA where jthma is the juric function ie; NewMA=jthma(yourMA,3); to get it super smooth run it through the formula one more time. NewMA1=jthma(NewMA,3); -
Hello, I use Trade Station and I am trying to have the code check to see that the price is moving in the right direction with a moving average program. I find that very often that it will be fooled into going long when the price trend that follows is down or vice versa. Any help or direction to some code would be greatly appreciated. It is for the S&P e mini. Thanks, Workyboy
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JohnnyCakes, Sounds like your a longer time frame trader and am not sure who you use for charting but if your on Trade Station, try these charts. Kase 1.25,4, and 8 with a linear regression channel set to a length of 15 and ATR set to 1.1. You might see some very useful information. To see what type of day it might be, Load Point and Figure charts with the same settings and lengths. There is a definite pattern. Best of luck
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Feng, In regards to best time to trade for your particular strategy. Try this code for back testing. Place it near to the first line of your code. Input:TimeOpen (930),TimeClose (1600); If Time >TimeOpen and Time <TimeClose begin Your Code here end; Back test it over a few months and you get your best time to trade your strategy. You can add a lunch break if you wish. Good luck,
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When you post a question, be sure to directed it to the person you are looking for a response from. I want no part of assume.
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N57H, If your looking for a good slope, use linear regression channels. If you use TS and need help, click help/index then enter linear and look for slope for the formula. Good luck
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Problem solved. Linear regression channel.