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cnms2
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Everything posted by cnms2
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I added my gaussians to your chart.
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If I count correctly you're asking about bar 43 (?). It might be a good exercise to list all the reasons you should hold long and all the reasons you should reverse short at the close of that bar (closing at 1305). I've cropped your chart.
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Post a chart ... .
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It is a stereogram that reads: VOLUME LEADS PRICE. It's like when a chart shows nothing meaningful to the untrained eye / mind.
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I'd like to venture an idea: if Volume leads Price, then an accurate gaussian annotation should show this too.
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I've annotated that area a little differently (snippet from your chart).
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You may want to go further back to early July, then mid June.
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Have you looked at a de-gapped chart for the last ~10 days, or at least starting with 7/26?
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Fractals at work .
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On my charts, the market creates the low of 7-20-2010 on bar one (9:35 AM Eastern Time [and close of ES 5 minute Bar]). If your charts show the same, you might consider rephrasing your question. Also, if you choose to rephrase, consider adding context (tape point one, traverse point one, channel point one), else you might receive a yes answer to your questions, but interpret the yes answer in a way not entirely intended. FYI: The why portion will be, "because the order of events of the specific fractal in question reached completion, and provided a signal for change." HTH. - Spydertrader Spydertrader's nice call .
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That volume snippet (first post) was taken from MKTr's chart with no modification, and I wanted to show that just looking at volume the gaussians he's drawn don't quite match the volume picture. The second post shows for comparison his gaussians and mine. This is why they don't match. I should've been more explicit.
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My middle fractal gaussians ...
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If I look at the volume pane only ...
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I believe that all started with 1015 ftt/FTT.
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Study post #5! The main thing is that bar coloration should emphasize price translation: (HH & HL) means translation up and the bar is green, (LL & LH) means translation down and the bar is red. Where: HL = "higher low" = the current bar's Low is Higher (>) than the previous bar's Low.
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A picture would make your question clearer. When a sequence seems to not complete, it is probably on a different fractal than the one you're thinking it was. Also: in the beginning of this thread spydertrader posted the "clean page 4".
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Numbers in the table below refer to the September 2010 futures, reflecting their rollover to being the front month contract as of June 10, 2010
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Friday was a good exercise in detecting "signals to hold", especially after 1300 ...
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I've marked on your snippet a few other things that were part of my MADA.
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Food for thought: differences between 1125 (end of bar) after 1120 peak volume, and 1210 after 1205 peak volume? Also: 1150 (3rd bar of the lateral) how is the lateral expected to BO?
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I've just quickly read your post. It seems you overcomplicated your thought process in this case. Also, I'd recommend to start your annotation process with setting pt1,2,3 on 2 bars (cp1), use 2 bar cases (cp2), build volume & price sequences of 4 respectively 3 legs on 3 fractals starting with the first observable fractal. It would probably be a good idea to re-read intently all Spydertrader's posts from this thread, starting from the beginning.
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So, your PFC is that the pt2,3 up are still to come (on the fractal you're annotating) ...
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google FTT (failure to traverse)
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It might be interesting to discuss and hear opinions of others on when should've reversed long, what should've prevented a short entry at 1400, and what more information could be extracted at 1345.