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cnms2
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Everything posted by cnms2
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In my view, you have a complete sequence down starting bar 71 prev day (1520, open), followed by a complete sequence up starting bar 78 (1555, open). The up sequence ends with an FTT of the accelerated BBT (or whatever level of container) formed by the bars 3 and 4 of today (0940 and 0945, open), its pt 2 being Mon, and pt3 Tue.
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Your post is well intended, but unfortunately of no use to those who spent years of hard working unsuccessfully trying to profitably trade these methods. Obviously doing the same thing and expecting different results is ... insanity. Some kind of a better approach is needed.
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To me the "context" is something on these lines (as per Jack):1. Where is the market in the cycle (pattern)? 2. What is next in the pattern? and 3. How fast is the pattern changing? applied to the three fractals: my trading fractal, one above, and one bellow. As an example, getting back to your recent post regarding two apparently similar chart snippets, to compare their contexts I would try to identify the answers to the above three questions for the three fractals. I would look at V and P, both independently and interdependently. A quick glance at the charts you posted seem to show that one is an up retrace in a down trend, versus an up dominant of a faster fractal. I notice the difference in pace too.
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I was simply saying that I use:- the relative amplitude of the volume peaks to differentiate among nested fractals - and their absolute value to identify fractals' hierarchy. As I mentioned in the past, I find useful to practice annotating volume without looking at price.
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Pace is not binary, is affected by the usual distribution during the day and by important news releases. This is why I look for "alike" pace levels.
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I try to build all observable sequences (x2x2y2x) based primarily on volume (not on price), looking for peaks and valleys of the same fractal to be alike in pace.
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I use volume pace and sequences.
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Interesting ... Trends overlap. Here the dilemma is: to fan or to accelerate? Which one is correct here? How do you know? Does it matter? Why?
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. .
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I marked on your chart several places where I started those containers at other points than you did (without respecting your line thickness convention). I believe them to be not only better trading points, but also the correct ones based of volume sequences.
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What about this sequence?
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(my view of) Volume sequences, reflected in price annotation (for your "B" version).
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The 1, 5, 15 bar chart is like your microscope's set resolution, and cannot be referred as the market's / snowflake's fractal. You can't say "5 min fractal of the market", as you can't say "x10 fractal of the snowflake". You can talk about the price or snowflake fractals you can see through your chart or microscope chosen resolution.
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If I may ... Price waveform has a fractal nature, and exists out there, whether you open your charting program or not. To look at that waveform you choose a time frame, a resolution, for your chart. Your 1, 5 or 15 min bars represent that resolution, that gives you the possibility to see a subset of those price fractals. It's like you measure an object's dimensions using a ruler. Your ruler may be marked in whatever units (inches, centimeters, whatever), independent of that object's shape. Obviously, you need to appropriately choose a ruler that allows you to measure whatever you want to.
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Not sure if this is what you're asking (?). This is what I meant: the left hand light blue sub-container is the pt1 to pt2 move of the green container, and it's made of three sub-sub-containers (blue, magenta, blue).
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Maybe the lack of response to your drill is due to the weekend break, and you should leave it open until people have more time to think about it, and express opinions. Most of us aren't yet able to anticipate correctly how a lateral will develop from 4, 5 or more bars, but everybody could try to annotate it and make observations about each bar's volume, price, closing, about groups of bars, trends, etc.. Not knowing what follows has the advantage of keeping us ... honest
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I don't think those are m1-m2, but a three move retrace.
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My view. .
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I don't understand what 2b can't you see (in your attachment ? in Ezzy's lateral ?), but I believe your conclusion is incorrect: you should be able to trade based on what you see only on the 5 minute ES chart, without relying on the YM 2 minute.
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Asumming your annotations up to that bar are accurate, you're post Pt3 of an R2R2B2R container (purple). The r2r that can be seen post Pt3 is on the next faster fractal and it happens when the Pt2 to Pt3 sub-container's RTL is crossed. At this point you notice that the last red bar hits a lower low on decreased volume, compared to the Pt2 volume (Jokari). So you can anticipate that the events to come are: black volume, sub-container's RTL BO, etc.. PS: If I were to post that snippet I would've included more bars to the left (e.g. from 15:45 previous day), and the time axis info as well.
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Post a snippet of that chart fully annotated. It's easier to comment when we all look at the same picture.
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Three fractals. Look for overlap.
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I believe it's best to stick to the method as it was introduced by spydertrader. You could obviously trade any other time frame, but the settings he introduced seem to be the optimum. Check this too:
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If you draw that long narrow lateral, you could see the green retrace. A suggestion: increase the volume pane resolution to better distinguish volume behaviour. The way you have it now seems to show that you use the volume pane mostly to log your conclusions drawn from the price pane, or at most to look at the very large volume swings.
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You made corrections to your gaussians, leaving unchanged the trendlines ... If you looked only at your two gaussians choices, which one (or none) would you say is correct?