ivob

Two remarks. 1. Don't wait for the market to confirm before taking the trade. (well one tick is ok..) Wait for the market to confirm after the trade. If it doesn't, get out. You want to be at the beginning of the move..not the middle or the end. Especially do not wait for the market to de-confirm your trade because then you have a loss. Stops are just for emergency...don't let price hit it. In case of a long if price does not go up quickly get out. Because you can count on it that the market will go down if it doesn't go up. Don't wait for it to go down. It's not a bad strategy actually to always get out...unless price goes in your favor very much. Something like a time stop. Getting out is good. It frees your mind and you're ready for the next opportunity. 2. shooting for point 3... I don't know...I don't find it easier to spot pt 3's than FTT's but you may..... In fact...the point 3 is just another FTT on a non dominant channel or on the tape. Best strategry (IMO) is recognizing FTT's. Ivo

I have to correct myself here.... The FTT itself.....is a failure to reach the left trendline.... So the FTT bar itself does not have to end at its high... it all depends when in the bar the FTT (the failure to reach LTL) takes place... Quite quickly after the FTT you expect price to go in your direction which may or may not be in the same bar. If the FTT takes place earlier in the bar then yes, you expect the bar to be at its high. (assuming we take a long). Sometimes we even have a one tick FTT. We make a VE...next bar (FTT bar) tries to reach LTL by just one tick and then goes the other way (your way). checkout attach (it may have been 2 ticks...). This is the moment to enter. I believe I can spot the FTT not just by not touching LTL but also by how price moves in the bar...(the way it ticks..).. It's calm....not nervous... less participation... The action was before, the action is over, the channel is over. In this example after the VE you have your finger at the trigger... You wait one bar... ok this could be the FTT but close near the low... next bar...few ticks down..then up... this must be the FTT. Enter. regards, Ivo

Yes..of course it has to close in the direction of your trade!! Preferrably at the high. But it has two sides...enter late and take some heat maybe...or enter early and have a better price but more risk of being wrong/zigzagged. Well..if it's a real FTT there won't be too much zigzagging. Best time for FTT is after a VE... checkout today's ES...the last 20 minutes or so. Great move down. Anyway, one can also enter late and be wrong...incurring a bigger loss. It's probably better to enter early because you can enter early, be wrong, still make money and be on the right side of the market again. The best is to enter some time while the FTT bar is going on. As soon as you know it's an FTT. But yes..I do sometimes wait for this bar to be taken out. Sometimes I enter right at RTL break but not later...I hate to enter at point 2. Point 2 is a point to exit (or reverse) and enter again at point 3 unless price has moved a big deal from 1-->2 and broke RTL. So be careful in the markets with confirmation because if things are clear for everyone it's too late...you have a crappy price. Much easier to see the things when price is far away from your entry. Think upside down...the moment you take the trade and price is going your direction you think "If I am wrong...this would be a great place to reverse... which I will do if price goes back and passes by one or two ticks this point here.".... So basically it's a risk free trade because you can only lose the spread right? And will be on the right side of the market again. Everything is upside down in the market because the market acts against human psychology. Price goes up if it cannot go down anymore and vice versta. NEVER enter thinking something like "Wow what a move..I will join it now" because the market always tries to fool you. It spends the most time at crappy prices that will be zigzagged or taken out, the opportunities are on the edges (FTT). At the beginning of the move. How far it goes...I have no clue..let the market surprise you!! regards, Ivo

I have seen this kind of FTT's often and know it's a A+ trade. No. I don't miss volume. Also Spyder does not talk about "confirmation by volume" as he claims volume precedes price. First we get VE. then price tries to reach the Left trendline but fails. Then the moment it goes up I take the trade. If you take the trade the moment price goes up then it will go up at least some more ticks after my trade normally. Enough to put my stop to almost BE. From then on you follow bar by bar. Hold towards RTL. It breaks thru RTL so continue to hold. As you can see I took the trade actually quite late..... Could have been somewhere halfway the FTT bar. regards, Ivo

Same here.... but we have to learn to stay cool. I believe this mentality keeps us from having really big gains. We should realize that and do our thing. Push buttons. Ivo

Hi Wolf, Yes, I have been gone for a few years, focussing on my other business. The Forex hours are better for me and I like the moves and above all I really like it that I can trade whatever size on forex....Still following the ES though. I am very thankful for all that Spyder has done. He provides a great method indeed but I have had difficulties. It has not been easy and often it still not is. 1. He hardly ever writes about entries and exits...but these are very important because this is what determines the profits... No examples about succesful trades... His words are too vague for me often... ...here is where I got in and there I got out is what I would like to hear... Simple and no oracle language. (sorry just giving my opinion...) 2. The method seems so discretionary...there's always an explanation after the fact.. (Oh well...it was a hitch, stall, HVS, whatever).... at the same time we have to keep it simple...not overcomplicate... Sure...when he writes everything is clear but I have personally heared him (on live chat) and witnessed moments when everything was not that sure and clear.... Of course he has also called market directions correctly. All I am saying is that it's not always that clear. He's human after all...just like all traders eventually. 3. According to Spyder it's all binary.....short or long...depending on the resolution and sequence (or however he calls it) play out. It's all in a certain order which has to be completed..... Well.. all it takes at some moment is a lot of people doing something at the same time (buying or selling). I believe the market can do anything at anytime and we better prepare for it. The method caused me to be too relaxed at certain times...because the sequence hadn't played out after all.. (or I thought so...but the result was the same)..Seeing the market is not that hard, making a profit is. I believe in the end you have to find your own method and sure: trendlines, VE, FTT may help... but following Spyder's words "religiously" hasn't helped me. For a while I even thought all this was a social experiment about people following someone they've never met blindly. (That was a joke ;-)) Sure...I defended him when new people showed up on the thread and criticised him and his method...but at that moment I was nowhere near profitable and I think most people who defend him are not...... What happens is you want to believe it works because else why would you put so much time and effort in it right? That's what people do. I am sure the biggest "defenders" are not profitable. The others are too busy making profits and finetuning their method... I am not claiming the method doesn't work...it does work.... (lots of methods work, astrology may work LOL). All I am saying that it's not as easy and clear cut as it seems. (else why need 1600 or so pages)... I don't want to seem unthankful but these were just some remarks. I believe it's a great method!! Trendlines are great, the FTT is great. But we need a little more than just a great method (experience, mindset, common sense-->set a target when the market is choppy...) because even with a great method we can manage to be not-profitable. It takes more. regards, Ivo

These are the best opportunities IMO... Just like we saw yesterday at ES before a great move up. Volatiltiy expansion on the traverse as well as the forrest (main channel of the day) followed by an FTT. I said I didn't care much about VE's but I have to take that back. Not based on this example but on observations of the last weeks. VE is a good opportunity to take profits and change may occur right after it. regards, Ivo

Sounds complicated so I fall back on a very basic rule: do not overcomplicate ;-) It works just fine. Ivo

Mada for this morning's EURUSD. I am often a little too early so took a little heat. The exit was very good though. After determining the trend (blue channel) you know the direction of the trade. Then it is a good thing to wait for a FTT on a non dominant channel once that channel is formed. These make great entries. For me it helps to distinguish between signal and entry bar. Signal bar is the FTT and entry is as soon as the FTT bar is taken out by a few ticks. But in this case I was early as often is the case. BTW I prefer candlesticks as opposed to OHLC bars because I can see open and close much better. In my opinion open and especially the close are very important. regards, Ivo

Good example of what must come next that does not materialise in this mornings EURUSD. Bars with arrow look like FTT's... (especially the first one at that point in time). Actually they are! An FTT is an FTT. But what must come next? A red bar. instead we get an inside bar. Next bar: also inside bar. So price moving sideways. Conclusion: Price is probably just on its way sideways to make a new pt 3 up. Stay in the trade. Had it closed lower....I would be out. Second FTT: This one is easier. Next bar is reversal bar...closing above the open of our potential FTT. No problem. Stay in. It's not change so it must be continuation. I closed half my position at 1.3635 and the other half at 1.3620 as the current bar 10 o clock bar closed at 1.3620 and I expect more down movement before a new possible point 3 up in the big green channel. regards, Ivo

Lol. Yes, volume is deceptive (in my opinion). Price going lower on decreasing volume (yesterday end of day ES) and then suddenly end of bar a big chunk of volume comes in etc etc. Had I put a lot of emphasis on volume it might have shaken me out of the short. I don't want to deal with that. Price alone is enough. There's a relation between bar length and volume anyway so price and bar length say enough.

Yeah, I agree it's smart money in the end who decides where the market goes after buyers and sellers have exhausted eachother. Jack also writes about this (the minority moving the market). Fake moves, false breakouts etc simply happpen. It is the nature of the market to deceive and to move to a point where buyers and sellers are in balance. Just like a bird flies the market makes these kind of moves. It has evolved like that so only the smartest are correct. Imagine if everyone was convinced the market would go down? There would be no volume right? (no buyers). So price finds a balance to shake people out, find new people etc. What is interesting is that on a chart everyone of us know the trend and what's happening while always at the current bar something extraordinary seems to be happening... (trend change for instance) and then EOB everything becomes clear again. Talking about deceiving. I always thought fast (noticing, entry) was good and advanced. It's not. EOB is fine as long as the analysis is correct. Ivo

This is interesting. I find myself sometimes entering at point 2, or somewhere between point 1 and 2 which is better. As long as the big picture doesn't change you can just stay in. It's a dilemma, sometimes prices moves quickly after RTL break..sometimes we have point 2 right after RTL break....what to do? I guess if volatility is high it could move before we get point 2, like today in the last hour. But it's personal. For me a little zigzag is okay.. I learned to be more relaxed about it. Things can take a couple of bars to work out. (little 1-2-3 movements on smaller fractals). guess it's just the market trying to shake out weak hands. I just wait for point 3 and add some to the position. Remember, somewhere...there's a trendline that is in your favor so time is on your side because if nothing big happens that trendline simply will push price in your direction. You're on the right side of the market. And if something unexpected happens that changes the big picture: act on it. It will be unexpected for many traders so might be a big move that quickly makes up for any small losses. It doesn't matter when you enter. The market doesn't know that and is either in short or long modus and at each moment ask yourself the question what would change the big picture. I could open up my platform in the morning and put a trade on immediately. That having said, we all like to be in the green quickly so RTL...FTT is better. regards, Ivo

Change coming up soon is never sure IMO. Only if what must come next materializes. What must come next after an FTT is price going in the new direction...taking out the FTT bar. Next bar the same.... Doesn't have to go like crazy and might be little choppy but EOB should tell. If it doesn't do that then we have 2 options...a point 2 was formed (a little later) and price retraces (or moves sideways) to form a point 3 inside the old channel (and then price just shoots away) or the FTT is invalidaded. (taken out). Of course we would need some space in the channel between point 1 and 2..so I really expect the next few bars after the FTT to go in your direction (assuming we took the trade). Sideways movement right after the FTT is not good... The FTT bar itself is very interesting. Usually it seems like a not very meaningful bar..moving slowly. Because of the lack of market participation. (hence the low volume) price has to move to a new area fo find buyers and sellers who agree and a new channel is born. Anyway, If the FTT bar would look meaningful traders would probably be aware of the change and that's not what the market wants because it always moves to f**k as many people as possible except for the JHM traders who were trained to spot FTT's ;-) Ayway..it's good to know about the why. I don't watch volume BTW, just price, bar length, the way bars move.

This "system" or more a way of seeing the market is the basis of my trading. But I honestly don't care very much about volume. I find it rather deceptive. Also I don't care much about volatility expansion, high volatility stall, hitch, dip etc etc...Intra bar gaussian shift...... (almost seems like another language...) Trading shouldn't be that hard is my opinion. You see something in the big picture, zoom in, act on it, monitor closely, zoom out (very important!)....that's all. Keep in mind price goes up if it cannot go down anymore and vice versa. So look for failures... failure to breakout (bar, channel), failure to traverse. All depending on the context as the context might make you decide to ignore a signal (FTT for instance). I do care about change, FTT, BO, FBO, point 3. triangles, congestion and above all I care about holding as long as price remains in the channel using the right trendline as a last resort. regards, Ivo