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ivob
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Everything posted by ivob
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EURUSD Trades of today. In the next hour or so I believe price is not going anywhere. We have price centering, tails on both sides and bars are getting shorter and shorter. These things together say "be careful: chop"!! regards, Ivo
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First trade of the day with comments. regards, Ivo [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_EJUcRjQZ8]channel / trendline trading forex Nov 1st 2011 - YouTube[/ame]
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I want to add that I use candlesticks instead of OHLC bars. So I place a lot more emphasis on the open and the close. (are we closing within the previous bar?). One tick can make a difference. Also I annotate 15 min bars. I only trade when those two line up (5 min and 15 min). Maybe those two "tools" make up for not having volume in forex. regards, Ivo
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Yeah but trading forex one can really trade anything from 1 dollar to millions LOL.
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Hi David, I wrote before, some weeks ago, that I don't care very much about volume and that I have found it deceptive. Sometimes I was holding on to positions because volume told me so...yeah right... in the meantime price was not going the right way. I am sorry (@ Spyder) but I find price just a little more important than volume because (changes) in price give me profits. Sure...it probably works. You expect a certain volume with a certain bar size but in the forex market when I see a small bar (depending on the context of course...not somewhere mid-range) and price ticking a lot, very nervously, obviously something is "different"... (small bar...high volume) and the same when I see a big bar moving just a littlebit to "easily"... Of course I still have enough issues to deal with. I still find the RTL and FBO troublesome. I tend to just take profits at RTL...unless price shoots through so fast that it screams BO! If you annotate well....you know what's going on at all times. And remember to "think" upside down.... - price will go up...if it cannot go down anymore and vice versa. - What wasn't that? By exluding you find the answer. - make sure you don't lose... --> then you win. One thing that took me a long time was taking market structure in consideration.. what kind of day is it? choppy: look to sell above, buy below. Change happens in the middle. look for FBO..and channels becoming wider and wider... change comes very quickly...(directly after PT3)... Of course the opposite for trending days. On trending days I tend to ignore certain FTT's. regards, Ivo
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Hi, I trade forex and forex does not have volume data. (although I could use tick volume) In general big bars are high volume. Small bars are low volume. Also I just watch how the ticks go inside the bar.. (does it move nervous..a lot of ticks..or gradually..etc) Of course you can ask whatever you want... regards, Ivo
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Yes, youtube directly should work. This was actually a very small move/trade. Volatility has been excellent today (100 pip moves) after 2 days of chop. Traders waited for the eurotop to be over before placing their trade. Even up to this moment the moves are great and price behaves textbook JHM. (wait for VE, next bar FTT) regards, Ivo
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Another video. Just to illustrate how important it is to have the channels correct. If you don't have the channels correct you simply miss things because you don't look for them. regards, Ivo [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsxHX-7qd9k]channel / trendline trading forex - YouTube[/ame]
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thanks, it's fun to make and forces me to review the day better so will make some more. Of course this is not an average trade as price went quite far so maybe I should record some more (whole day). But anyway, it's the thinking (what wasn't that) that matters because it leads to the correct decission (hold, exit, reverse). Ivo
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Here a video I created a few days ago with 2 live trades, one small loser, found myself on the wrong side and a quick correction. I added some comments what I was thinking at that moment. Also some examples of "What wasn't that" which was the reason to hold. If anyone finds it useful, let me know and I post some more with comments. It was produced twice the normal speed. regards, Ivo [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARGQuHP2Rs0]video[/ame]
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The method just helps to see the market. That's all. That's something else then a ruleset when to get in, when to get out etc. Stop after 3 losses, sit thru a point 2-->3, trading HVS, etc etc...These things you really decide for yourself after you understand the market. Actually Spyder did give some beginner rules...enter at FTT, reverse at FTT and out at FBO I think...but really..it's up to the individual trader. How focussed do you want to be? How many trades/opportunities do you want to take? How many lines do you want to draw? Do you understand the market in every aspect? I certainly don't but I trade the things I do understand. Ivo
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No problem. Let me try to explain what I mean with "You have to find your own method in the end." What I mean is..you take aspects from Jack Hershey method that you like... use it, enter, exit where you are comfortable and when you like market conditions and then finally after gaining experience make it truly your own method because only then you can 100% trust your own judgement. This makes sense because it's really a discretionary method. There's no 100% ruleset...what to do and when to do it. It depends on the trader and on the experience gained, interpretation, etc etc... that's why there are so many pages about it, here and on ET. regards, Ivo
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I didn't say that.... If you know 10% of what he knows it's enough... as long as it is the 1st 10%..... the basis. It explaines it all...that having said, unexpected things happen sometimes. At least for me. You have to find your own method in the end. I trade forex so there is no volume..but...come on... It's not that hard to figure out the volume behind the bars. Bars getting shorter: you bet volume is decreasing.... One can also see it in the way the individual bar ticks....(actually forex has tick-volume...but I don't plot it).. The FTT bar is never a very "nervous" high volume bar. It's relaxed. Not attracting too much attention. Also I don't use OHLC bars but candlesticks. So what? I use it as well. 20 EMA though. But I don't "look upon" anyone. For me it's about: change, screentime, FTT (entry), right trendline, left trendline (exit), VE, fractals. (1-2-3 setups inside 1-2-3 setups), following rules, getting out at choptime. All you have to see is the change. (FTT). After that the market will take you whereever it wants to take you. Ivo
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There's no need to move "beyond" hersheyland. Understanding the basics is enough, and even a requirement to move further. What happened to Spyder? Why doesn't he or other experienced JHM traderts post anymore here? Ivo
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You would not believe how I screw up sometimes. Especially in chop. Getting much better in that BTW. Sometimes got to switch to "fade" mode or "seeing change very fast" Spyder would say. But...... today.... so far I am nailing every turn :-) Trading very much in the zone today ;-) Ivo
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I always fan out, just like you. Also I rotate my pt3's and use them as new pt1 and find it useful. In this case..indeed it was a taped FTT that you took. You can be stopped out but not at a loss if you're fast/tight. Most of the time price resides in a non-dominant traverse.It often takes time to make a pt3. As long as price does not make a new high you can expect a pt3 down. If you draw that channel which you didn't then you see a VE and FTT. We do not actually see an attempt after the VE bar to touch the LTL but....well....this could even have taken place in the last 2 seconds of the VE bar no? So it depends how that bar went. Anyway...this is all hindsight. Price goes up if it cannot go down anymore. Often points on a 1-2-3 are formed by FTT's Ivo
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This is setting yourself up for failure. (IMO) check my attach... It worked out in this case but I disagree because the next time it won't work out and I know the solution so it works out in any case: Just take the FTT and go long again next bar when the FTT is invalided... I would have lost 2 pips... (or made 1 depending how quick I would be) and above all would have been on the correct side of the market again. You have to follow the rules and take the FTT short. You cannot predict price will go up. You can only see change and act on it. It was change to the short side. Most BO's fail and I have seen dozens of similar examples where taking the FTT would have been better and holding would have killed you.. Actually especially today...has been very choppy. It was risky to hold..... It would have been better to reverse and reverse back. regards, Ivo
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Here's something that took me a long long time to understand...That you don't find in the "textbook" I deleted the last bar BTW. I am long... We just had BO...but also we had a VE and a FTT....and no point 3 up yet.... So what do we do? Do we reverse...we did notice the FTT.... Our point 3 up might take us far far up...... (actually it did, 40 pips or so and I am still long..) In my opinion always do what we see last... we saw the FTT so reverse..(we have to make profit no) and the point 3 up might come later which we would also trade. The FTT where we should reverse can be ignored...but that would be completely conscious...knowing a point 3 up will come. If you give up on the FTT you have to be ready to take some heat...and know a pt3 may come... If you take the FTT while the bar is forming...and you took the point 3 up (which came pretty fast after that) you would have almost no loss, depending on how quickly one would see things. I can't tell how often this went wrong.. I just kept holding (we had BO...BO=hold).... Sure of course..BO means hold.. but FTT after that means reverse!!!! The most recent thing counts so always have the channels in place because we might get FTT quickly.. (Hell..sometimes we have PT3, BO and FTT in one bar!!!) Often I did not notice the FTT....didn't have the channel lines in place etc.etc.. So we trade the FTT...no matter if we just had BO or not...FTT is FTT. The point 3 up later on might be another FTT and might take an hour to form!!!! Posting this because I struggled with it a lot. All it requires is to have all trendlines in place and to notice things. Wrong or no channels means mistakes. regards, Ivo
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Yes. I trade more responsible so it seems. (not to be confused with "waiting for confirmation" because that is always bad). It's like you have to explain to someone your reasoning for what you do. I use Camtasia. Ivo
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I don't know the exact definition of an IBGS. It's just that that entry seems a little early for me. I would wait for the same bar to close above the open or the next bar to go to that area see attach. The low of that bar is too close to the low of the previous bar also... looking flawish to me... I recorded my EURUSD session today, just for myself with comments. I noticed I followed the rules better and the results were better also. Will do that more often. Ivo
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I was thinking about the question.... At BO price acts as if the RTL simply does not exists anymore... (which in fact is true...).... It should go thru without hesitation. If it hesitates...goes up and down wildly..etc then apparently there are still some issues there at RTL and buyers and sellers are still in balance (high volume...I guess). Price will probably FBO and the original trendline respected. When price simply goes thru (without hesitation!! and not sideways) then it's not there anymore. We have BO. As long there's no BO we have FBO. Ivo
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If price goes sideways thru the RTL and there's not much happening then it's just the volatility that decreased...but the original channel is still intact.The channel is just widening. It's important for bars to let them finish. If price goes thru the RTL and bounces back making a tail (in candlestick terms) it FBO's. In general a BO needs to be strong (Spyder says increasing volume). Else it might be FBO, channel widening, create a point 3 right after it and you get chopped 2 or 3 times. A BO has to convince me... (WOW....nice BO) else I am on the lookout for the FBO. Ivo
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Well this is all static and there are some more options. For example there's the Sym pennant/inside bar FTT...which I would enter after breakout instead of in the inside bar itself... The entry of the 1st case I find a little early. I'd wait for price to pass the open. Just look for FTT anytime after a VE. If you're in a position that VE might be a great moment to take profits which is hard pyschologically (but what isn't.??)....freeing your mind and look for the next opportunity which might be one bar later. Sometimes there is no VE...sometimes in slow market price keeps on hugging the RTL and then suddenly might go thru it. Allow yourself only a great entry (FTT, pt 3) else there's a good chance you would catch a point 2 or worse. Ivo
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That is true... Of course the issue is to be "sensitized" on the right moment (context) and not to see "change" on a micoscopic level somewhere where it doesn't matter much.. New lows, new highs, RTL, LTL are good moments. Sometimes a clear outside bar doesn't mean much...and sometimes one tick means a big change. It's very subtle, delicate. You have to know when to look for things. Actually when it seems obvious (for the outside world, not for trained FTT traders) it's probably not true as it's the markets job to f**k people. Ivo
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Hi Vienna, Yeah but also PRV is deceiving because suddenly a lot of volume can come in in the last minute. As I trade mostly forex (and sometimes last 2 hours of the ES) I don't have volume anyway. It probably works but I only use price and see how the bar moves. The FTT moves like a retracement. A retracement in the dominant direction(!!!)..... It's the last thing before change. It's like dry-up. There is no participation and price has to go to other areas to encounter participation. Price will always go to areas where people want to trade it and make volume. (buyers think it's a good price to buy, seller think it's a good price to sell). Pardon my simple English it's not my 1st language and my "Trader IQ" is even lower than that person who claims FTT is a failure to reach the right trendline ;-) Just kidding ;-) All you need to do is wait for price to go into your direction after FTT. (at that moment I move to 1 minute chart where you would also see a FTT). The FTT doesn't move wildly....but slowly. Don't confuse the FTT with the FTT-bar as the FTT bar can move wildly and fast (after the actual FTT took place!!). I guess that's a IBGS (all these terms drive me nuts). In a fast market you can have VE, FTT and price moving in your direction in one bar...As long as price tries to go to LTL after that VE. Sometimes the FTT is just one tick but not impossible at all to catch because you have your hand at the trigger already. Just follow very carefully how the bar is formed. It should go back slowly (= probably low volume LOL) one final time and try to reach LTL. (and shake out all those people who entered too early and give false hope to people who were holding..). In a slow market it can take 3 bars...(you mentally put them together). As long as price is actually trying to reach LTL....and then it goes in your direction. That's when to enter. It would be interesting to make screenshots of all different kinds of FTT's that exists and learn about them. Even better: video capture. Ivo