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jbarnby
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Everything posted by jbarnby
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A word of encouragement for those that may need it. A few weeks ago Spyder gave us a channel drill. Without question, it was a daunting task. I have worked, reworked, and re-reworked those areas for weeks. At times I thought I would lose my mind. At times I thought Spyder was full of s**t. (no offense....) Admittedly, I am a workaholic when it comes to these charts...days, nights, and weekends too. I tried to invent things which have not been taught. (Some actually worked....sometimes.) The good news is that I persisted and finally, somehow, had a serious breakthrough. Who knew the answer to my fractal jumping issues could have been so simple. In my particular case, I was unaware that laterals were causing me to jump fractals...a lot. So it took a while to realize the problem and find the solution. I am thankful and so relieved that I can now work every chart in the channels perfectly, as well as every other chart I've examined. Spyder challenged us to find a solution which could be applied to any and all charts. I believe I have done that. Nothing is needed beyond price and volume. Nothing. So I am writing to suggest to others; those who may have most of the puzzle pieces but are still missing some critical element....work the channel drill until you find the answers. Once you find the solutions the charts will become crystal clear almost overnight. John
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After review, and comparing the 1310 bar from 08/05 to a few others, I notice that volume accelerates in this area in a fashion similar to what we used to call Peak Volume. Seems I recall that PV would frequently mask an FTT on a VE of the tape.
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Yes, but it was not apparent to me until today. As I mentioned before, it can be a bit of a challenge for me to differentiate what something looks like vs what has actually taken place. Particularly when I've done it a certain way for so long.
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Spyder recently referenced the discussion between PointOne and Romanus. In his reference, he stated "Within that exchange, one can learn what sequence of events must develop at each 'Point' (1, 2 or 3). In other words, something must happen on one fractal in order to form the 'Point' (1, 2, or 3) of the next slower fractal above it." What I took away from this post is that an FTT is required on one fractal so that we can form a point 1,2,3 on the higher fractal. Spyder used the word "must", and I know he chooses his words deliberately. In my snippet I cannot annotate such an event, which leads me to conclude that the 1310 bar cannot be a pt 3 on my trading fractal. All I'm trying to do LJ is advance thru another plateau while seeking a better understanding of the method. Perhaps I'm merely struggling with what something "looks" like vs what has actually taken place. Ahhh...the wonderful process of differentiation. I'm certainly interested in feedback from anyone on this issue.
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Correction to my above post. The highlighted bar is on 08/05...as shown in the snippet. I incorrectly referred to this as 08/10. Sorry for any confusion...it was a late night!
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Spyder, I have a question about the attached snippet. Specifically, the 1310 bar on 08/10 (highlighted in yellow). From time to time I run across an area such as this, where I am unable to ftt the bar on any fractal. The gaussians support that this area completes the 2-3 movement, but is that possible with the ve? I'm very familiar with the valuable discussion between Romanus and PointeOne on this topic. Does such an event tell me that I have taped the area incorrectly? What am I missing here? Thanks for your feedback.
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Here's a question for anyone who wants to take a stab at context. Is the 1550 lateral on 07/28 a dominant lateral in an up tape? Or is it a non-dominant lateral in a down tape with the down tape pt 1 at 1435 and pt 3 at 1605? The reason I ask is because this is the sort of "context" issue which often gives me grief. I can annotate it both ways, but fail to understand which MUST be the correct answer and why.
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Sure David, I will try to explain my understanding. I believe 1335 to be a non-dominant lateral because it was formed from a non-dominant bar....meaning that price had begun to move in the non-dominant direction. It is also my understanding that non-dominant laterals usually take us to pt 3 of whatever we are building. 1550 appears to be a dominant lateral because price was moving in the dominant direction on the forming bar. As such, I understand that these laterals often tells us we have yet to arrive at point 2. I also understand that there are different kinds of dominant laterals - ie; some which allow for sequence completion within the lateral itself. But, as hard as I've tried, I cannot see how to differentiate between the two types of dominant laterals, though I suspect volume on the forming bar may play a role. Now, I may have context all screwed up. If so, I hope Spyder will shed some light. However, I am confident that both dominant and non-dominant laterals exist. I would truly welcome more discussion on this topic as I feel understanding these laterals would help us all.
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OK...let's try this again with the correct bar times. 1335 is a non-dominant lat and 1550 is a dominant lat. Since 1335 is non-dominant we expect it to take us to pt 3 of our goat (tape, traverse, whatever). 1550 is a dominant lat which suggests we're still making our way to pt 2 of the goat we're building. 1120 and 1210 stitch bars. The only thing I notice here is that both of these bars appear to take us to a point 3 of a tape. I note that after each stitch bar price and volume return to the dominant trend. 1140 looks like an FTT of a tape to me. 1525 I'm unclear about this bar. While is "looks" like an FTT, it occurs on decreasing volume. Technically, can an FTT occur on a dec vol bar?
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Sorry...scratch the above post. I was looking at the wrong lats.
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Could it be that they are similar in that both laterals formed from a bar (1435 and 1550) which ve'd a tape? Or, could it be that they are the same in that they are both dominant laterals?
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Continuing with the pennant drill, my observations are similar to Tikitrader's in that SYM pennants are often located where the market is transitioning from non-dom to dom...or 2-3 of some goat. I tried to differentiate SYM pennants by volume, noting that usually the second (internal) bar of the pennants have decreasing volume when compared to the first bar. One example I found which is different is 1545 on Friday. The 1545 pennant has increasing volume on the second (internal) bar of the pennant, which is interesting because at this point the market returned to the dominant trending direction.
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I took the charts for Thursday and Friday and removed all annotations. I decided to begin with FBP and FTP formations. I highlighted all FBP/FTP's for those two days. After review, here are some early findings. In an uptrend, FTP's usually BO with increasing volume in the direction of the trend, thus presenting continuation in the direction of the tape created by the FTP. Same applies for FBP in a downtrend. In an uptrend, FTP's which break to the downside seem to indicate a change in mode, but volume on the BO bar is telling. If the BO bar is decreasing volume, it's usually a minor retrace or the beginning of a lateral formation. A BO to the downside on increasing volume seems to suggest a shift in trend. The same principle applies to FBP's in a downtrend. I also noted FTT's following FBP/FTP on a couple of occasions, which seemed to have occurred on higher (peaking) volume. As stated, these are early finding, and I hope I'm approaching this correctly. Tomorrow I plan to add SYM pennants to the review.
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David, thanks for your response. I get the three fractal concept of tapes, traverses, and channels. And I too would like to avoid the confusion of dropping a fractal. But it seems inevitable to me that there are occasions when we have to consider that there are multiple fractals that must complete before we have a completed 5 min tape. IOW, I thought that's why we cannot go by appearances alone, ie some tapes look like traverses etc because we're waiting for faster fractals to complete. I may have wondered off the reservation here, and if so I hope Spyder or others will chime in and set me straight.
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Thanks for the posts Roman and David. One area in which I would like to see more discussion is fractals and their effect on sequences. For instance, in the down tape from 0935 on 07/21, how does one know we did not drop to a lower fractal? Because if 1040 is a 5 min (traverse) pt 3, the initial down tape must be a 5 min (fractal) tape. TIA
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What I notice is ONE cycle of R2R before we have increasing non-dominant (black) volume, then a return to increasing red. Because we had just one R2R volume cycle I would conclude that we did not drop to a lower fractal?
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Yes, I'm quite curious about this as well...
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Well, I'm not sure I can be of much help as I'm also working to differentiate these laterals. Since Spyder did not comment on my post I assume I did not provide the correct answer...so I continue to work. I know that there are two kinds of laterals, dominant and non-dominant. I believe that dominance is determined by how the lateral is formed, ie dominant bar or non-dominant bar. I also know that there is further differentiation required on the dominant side because some dominant laterals allow completion of the sequence within the lateral, whereas other dominant laterals require a BO or FBO. I've yet to find absolutely certainty as to how to differentiate the two types of dominant laterals, but I believe it may have something to do with the peak of the dominant bar. I've worked on these laterals for a long long time...but it has been a difficult and challenging process for me. I've been working on this method for 2.5 yrs. Perhaps others who also have a considerable amount of time invested can chime in here with their ideas. I'm hopeful that through collaborative effort we can learn to see what the market is telling us. John
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I'll give the lats from 07/06 another go: 0950 lat begins with price moving higher on dec black vol (non-dom). Price exits this lateral in the opposite direction on increasing red volume. 1200 lat begins with increasing red volume (increasing over the first bar of pennant 1150) and the r2r2b2r sequence completes within the lat. Price exits the lat in the opposite direction and returns to increasing black volume. 1515 lat begins with increasing red volume (but decreasing volume when compared to 1505 first bar of pennant). r2r2b2r completes but the pennant remains active until 1555 bar. 1540 bar does not terminate the lateral because we require 3 consecutive outside closes when a pennant formation is involved.
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07/09 Tapes
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I'll take a stab at the laterals.