steveshutts

Anna, Thanks very much for you detailed description of events. I am glad that i am starting to see for myself the analysis that you describe. Although, often lacking the confidence to put these trades on. However, i believe that if i can stick to this strat and keep spotting them then my confidence will grow. I must admit, i feel more comfortable executing from these timeframes, even though they can prove to be a little tricky at times. Its interesting that you have not placed your stop at the extreme point, ie outside of the high. Why is that?

Looks like that short would have paid off after all! Very nicely.

Anna, say you had of taken that short yourself. Would you still be holding the full position? I know that you would be looking for potential demand zones to scale some of the position. Price has failed to trot on past this mornings support at the pivot, would you now be looking at closing this trade? This is purely hypothetical, of course, but its nice to get ideas. I must admit, if i was in this trade now, i would be thinking that price has lost all momentum with the figures out in 15 mins, i would close it for a small profit. Scaling has not really been an option on this one yet?

Well, fed my little girl and back to the screen. Hmm, glad i didn't take that short now, doesn't look to favourable now. Wait for CPI figures now i guess.

LOL, i wish! This game is hard and i still have a lot to learn. Yep, that was a key watch zone for me, as i mentioned in my first post today. Saw the doji, perfect spot but bottled it, as i had just taken a loss and i suppose it was fear of being wrong again. Something i am trying to get myself out of, fear of being wrong, a tough one to battle against. I should have jumped straight back in at the next good opp, which was that one, but i didn't. Boy, is that annoying or what. Right, time away from the computer now, otherwise i am bound to jump on something.

Well, i took a short at 9480 based on the neutral bar prints on the hourly and the 1-2-3 trigger on the 15 min, based on finding resistance at 9500 and 50% retracement from yesterday. I must admit, i was a bit dubious about the position of price within the channel. If the signal had been at an extreme end of the channel ie top in this case then maybe it would have held more weight. Anyway, my short was triggered but i closed the position after the hammer prints on the 15. I was not going to hang around to be proven wrong, that was enough inidication for me that this was not the right time.

Nice bear flag on cable this morning, currently looking tired at 9500 but europe not up yet so would prefer to wait for them at least. Never know quite how to tackle these flags, i suppose you should really wait for a breakout either side and then pullback. 9500 could contain price this morning, if not, 9510/15 looks a nice area for a possible turn at the london open? We will see. Swissy also looking good for a continuation up, with price heading towards bottom of range, with watch areas of 2515 and 2500 this morning. We could see an attack of 2550 and 2575 area from here?

Yep, got that Anna. Will wait and see what develops. Could well drift back up over this dull period until the US open, and we may get an opp to maybe get in with another attack at todays lows and maybe even 9400. Waiting......

Morning Torero. This has been a bit of a runaway train after the initial opps early doors. There was a nice opp at 9500 on the 5 min chart but that was 30 mins before the data print so not an option for my money. Price has travelled 130 pips already today so unless we get decent pullback back up to maybe the 9500 zone i won't be trading. Looks like we are making headway for that 9315 area. Price has not yet broke through this 9450 demand zone convincingly. This is a strong support area with the good old 78% marker sitting there as well. Next support area will be 9400, round number and also a daily 78% fib if you take your fibs from the 9250 swing point.

Thanks Anna. I feel like i am getting the hang of spotting good opps. Just a case of attacking them confidently when they happen, and not sitting around for too long, especially executing from these frames. The key, i have found, is if miss something, DON'T take a more risky trade on in an attempt to leg in to the move, wait for the next A1 opp!

Yep, nice there. Off the asian low and fridays low. Traded the franc on friday from the asian breakout and pullback but only managed a small profit there, failed to run on past the 2520 zone.

Yeah, i can see that now. I need to be more agressive when i see these opps. I think that often in these scenarios, when you area at key stalling zones, you need to get in at the first signs of failure. Awaiting too much confirmation can often result in missing the boat. You then get into danger territory of wishing that you had of taken that earlier signal and you start looking for other signals to get you in. You take a less advantageous trade, which does not have the value that the original trade had and you probably end up getting stop hunted as your stop is ill-placed. Its a case of waiting now we may get another opp, we may not?? 15 printed a hammer at hourly swing point at 9485. Will probably wait for data release at 09:30 now, no point taking anything on before then.

Forgot about the monthly pivot. I now have them up on my whiteboard, with the weekly but must admit, i still forget to look at them. :o

So, having missed the prime opp, i must now wait for a pullback of the asian low breakout with hopefully a second chance of shorting this back down to fridays low. However, i want to see a pullback register on the 15 min chart before considering a trade.

Morning Anna. Thats a great trade. It was the one i was looking for as well. Saw the lower high on the 5 min chart, which stopped at the half prime. Wanted a bit more confirmation, which was probably my mistake there. Was waiting for a nice hammer or doji to short after the low was broken but never got it. Could have taken entry off the 1min but didn't. Its all about timing, and my timing for this trade was well off. That gets me sometimes, i see a trade that i want to take, develop before my eyes and then i miss the opportunity. Still, i know better than to jump on it now, so thats one important lesson that i have learnt!

Morning guys, hope you all had a good weekend. Cable has reacted off that 9450 zone, which houses strong support and the 78% fib, visible on the 240 chart. Price has been in a strong uptrend through the Asian market and is currently re-acting off the 9568 area, which is Fridays asian low, 38% fib from the move down off 9730 and roughly 61% retracement of fridays move. It is also the half prime and previous support zone now acting as resistance. The 240 trend is down so will be looking for short opportunities up to 9600. If we see a clean break of 9600 then i will be changing my bias. Price may just continue up this morning, we have gbp figures out at 09:30 as well. Short opps may present themselves if price fails to break the asian top at the London open but i will wait and see.

IRS out in 10 mins. Price has really been pressuring this 9750 zone of late and if it breaks we should see a strong move up. Have to wait and see what happens at 12:00pm.

Morning Torero, Looks like cable is putting pressure on the upside of this range this morning. I wonder if we will see someone shove this thing through this morning. I expect most will be waiting for the interest statement to be released so could be range bound until then. Will there be a surprise hike again today? Who knows.

Price not wanting to push on through and i have been stopped out at 82 on my trailer from yesterday. Asian breakout south but not getting involved, will wait for the US prints at lunch time now. Very indecisive price action this morning = STAY OUT!

Morning guys, Nice tight asian range this morning, looking like a continuation range of this leg up, may see a challenge of 9750 this morning? Plenty of data out today so i am sure most will be sidelined to see these prints through, especially waiting for IRS tomorrow? I just opted out of taking the low risk entry on cable, nice setup on the 5 min chart, but preferring to wait for price to confirm the move up before compounding this long trade.

Well scrapped that contra punt at BE, looks like we have a short term range setting up here so out, thats it for today. Will leave my remaining long, see what happens tonight with Bernanke on the block.

Thanks Anna. Yeah, put those markers up thanks to you guys. Never had them on before but they definitely seem to attract some attention. Price currently stalling at yesterdays high, now acting as support. Will be quick to pull this contra punt if i don't get any follow through. Still have a 1/3 left on my long, and will keep that stop down at 9633. That 50 zone could well act as a good support area, which may keep my long in play. Cable is directionless at the moment, so all we can do is sit it out i suppose or play off these s+r zones? Price has also sold off from this third touch of the down trend line on the 240 chart.

Well , i have taken a contra trend punt at 8685 off this 2B pattern off the round number rejection, looking to scale some at support at 55 if it gets there.

Cheers Torero, you still in this? I took another 1/3 off at 79 at the break of the hourly inverted hammer. Has now pushed on but getting a bit of a fight up here at 97. Have moved my stop to break even on remainder and will trail remaining 1/3 of my position behind the hourly. Would like to see a bust through this resistance and see price challenge the 9750 zone. Still, a profitable trade now, so just see what develops.

Price is stalling up here before 9700. Quite a resistance zone with a fib confluence and round number and previous resistance. Getting ready to take some more out in case it fails to push through.