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Sniper
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First I believe for one to be successful in forex you should go swing trading or better position trading. Intraday is really challenging. I am not saying it can't be done. Just that it's more difficult than traders thing. Secondly, I suggest you stay focus more on your strategy rather than how much you will make. Although I have a fixed profit target, I don't "squeeze" the market . I mean, nobody knows what the market is going to do next. Most of the time I reach my target but I know for a fact that one particular day market could reverse on my position and stop me out. It's a crude reality many traders won't accept and therefore they are in a constant search of a system that will spit money everytime they place a trade. It doesn't exist my friend. If you have your mind of growing rich on forex or any other market, you're heading down the wrong direction. Possible? yes but don't set you mind on that. It will ruin you. If you have a system in place, stick to it no matter what. If is not working out for you, better to look for advice. There's an abundance of free information on the web. There's plenty of experienced players in this very forum. My suggestion is why don't you bring your strategy to the table, to see how feasible it is. On what you are saying, I believe you have an "overload" of information. Sometimes we need to put that aside and get our feet on the water. Maybe you're in the"search" of a system that puts you in the profit way. I say it's possible my friend. But I think you must lower your gear a little and come down to earth. Simplify things. Losing is an inherited part of this game. Sometimes you will lose. Maybe more than once in a row. But at the end of the month, you will have more winers than losers. That's the core of trading my friend, at least on my experience. Let me tell you a short story I got shot in the leg during the gulf war. My company commander took me out of the front and put me on the statistics division. When I got my discharge, I work for a little while running stats for a hedge fund company. After a while I visualize that I can be self-employed trading. But I realized that if I truly want to get my edge on the markets, the best I can do is to run stats , back and forth in order to look what system/strategy will be more consistent. After two years, I finally found what I was looking for. Nowadays there's good people outhere willing to help at no charge. I mean, it's good to buy books and everything but I won't pay 2-3k to anyone to teach me how to trade. That's insane. Another thing some traders won't accept is this: You can buy all the books, read all articles , even buy expensive seminars etc, but ultimately trading comes down to grabbing your own edge, your own unique perspective on the market, and nobody else's. Very much like a fingerprint. I mean, of course is good to read stuff about successful traders, but just in the light of shaping your system, which as I said it's your edge, your little baby. That's why I will never pay a single penny to any of these so-called "guru's"
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today 01/26/2006 this is what really happened. Three significant pullbacks, the last one on .618% level. Notice the initial wave had minor corrections(pullbacks) in between. That's my kind of wave and that will save your behind many times if you follow that simple rule. Notice also he market was trying to break the 1% level which many times could pose as a strong support/resistance. In this particular trade, (I didn't take it by the way as I wasn't trading today) you have three elements aligned 1) price - action - solid pullbacks to key fib levels 2) pattern - a qualified wave (40 ticks or more) with minor corrections in between 3)Time - last strong pullback came out at 13:20 pm and the market activity was picking up. Stay away form lunch time and closing time as much as you can. Once you aligned these three simple rules, your confidence on fibs and your trading will greatly improve. I am not using time cycles so you could have a better view .Time cycles is just for that, to compare time vs.entry. That's all. They give you a better view as you're now looking at the market thru "squares" instead of a whole.Help you focus on the price action better and how long your trade should last. That way you won't be "trigger happy" a disease some traders have( I was one of them). for entries, don't "fade" the fibs. It's really dangerous. Some traders take the next candle after the pullback (if the market continues to the established trend) don't do that. Wait for the next one IF it breaks the higher/high/lower low of the las candle and it's going your way.
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Torero Here's an example of today's failed fib. Notice that There's a pullback on the .236% level but the market failed to continue downwards. PD I take in consideration all fib levels. Is not just the level but the price action around it what matters to me the most. I don't look at the market in terms of range-bound but more into waves. You can trade into a range-bound day and as long as your waves are qualified and the market keeps going on the projected direction, either you will make money, or maybe get out with a minor scratch. Here's two charts. One has a failed fib(1/26/2007) and the other has a successful one, both using a pullback on .236 level. Notice how the price action differs one to the other. On the failed fib, notice how the market even retraced back up to .382 area This might fool you into think that is validating the .236 pullback. Also notice on the first wave that sellers are taking over the market and buyers didn't win not even one round. I don't trade these patterns as I know form experience, with this kind of move, someone is going to run out of gas for sure.
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Torero yes 45 ticks or 4.5 points I'll show you later on how to spot range bound days . I think that's every trader's dream LOL. but yes there's a way. Unfortunately I am heading to a meeting rigth now. I catch up with you later
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is because the patterns formed on the tick chart are different and can fool you especially on pullbacks. Another thing is that time cycles works better on time charts. Take this form experience. This charts doesn't show 1% and 100% labels for some reason.They're the top/bottom blue lines. I am still learning how to use this charts ...sorry Regards
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As you see, no reversal after lunch time. The market is going my way so why bother to kill a trade? I killed the time cycles so you can see better where the market headed finally. Fibonacci is not just pullbacks, time plays an important role and must be used to apply the effectively. As you notice, time cycles will put you in another perspective and will give you a lot of confidence once you have an entry. On my experience, when the market builds up a huge buying/selling pressure around 12:00PM is a good confirmation of market trendiness. As I place my stop-loss between .786% and 100% is either make it or bust. Happy trading
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Hi folks this is a trade for 01-25-2006. Notice the initial swing - 45 ticks. As I trade ER2 Anything below 40 ticks is not for me. The market pulled back twice on the .236% level. I took my chances and waited for a second pullback. The market gave me a confirmation on a second pullback to the .236% area and then I draw time cycles, from the initial swing to the pullback. Notice that I enter on the lower low of the candle that is pushing back to the direction of the trend. I don't enter on that candle like most traders do, I need to see that the market has intention to keep going with the trend. After that, the market retaced a little (the next blue candle) and then I place my entry on the lower-low of the preceeding candle. As a rule I gave my entry two cycles life span. But in this particular case I notice a huge selling pressure building up around 10:20 AM. Then the market had another pullback, which is another indication that the market is wanting to keep up with the trend. At 12:00 PM the market had a huge selling pressure. I took my chances and let the trade go all the way (I am doing great on this month so why not take the chance?) I am going to post another chart so you guys check what happened
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Here's a risky trade for today 1/22/2007 I enter off a pullback at .236 level, which means there was a strong downside trend As I don't know how long this trend will last I went in with 2 contracts. Notice how time cycles along with fib retracements played beautifully today. As you notice down on the charts, time of exit - 11:10 AM. Regards
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Pardon me if I am playing devil's advocate here. But here I go Yes there's a difference between timing on the floor and trading electronic. But is so little you won't even notice. Maybe a floor trader is 1 tick high or low from an electronic pivot but in my calculations (as I did when the e-mini's craze started around 2001) the deviation was around .005%. If somebody is out selling a " floor pivot point signal" service I will be cautious on that. My two micro cents
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well, I finally found it. Here's a chart of an actual trade this past Friday. Notice that there's was an earlier retracement to .382 area but I didn't take as it was 11:55 am. I avoid doldrums time at all cost. My entry was at 12:50PM, some sort of risky time for me but hey, you gotta be pushy sometimes. Yellow vertical lines are cycle finder lines. As a rule I wait 2 cycles before taking profit. In this particular case, note that 2 cycle were passing closing time. I decided to take the 1st cycle as it was wide enough for a market play. Notice that profit target was on a confluence of the fib extension, but the target failed. I pulled out at the end of the cycle. One of rules is not to leave any open orders before closing time.
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Torero Thanks for welcome me to the forum! I think what you have is a fib time ratios tool. The one I use is called "cycle finder" It calculates how many bar/candles are between the initial swing(a) to the retracement © I use to do that manually, now I have some charts that has this little tool. You can do it manually too, simply count how many bars from a-c and there you have it. If you had already an entry, let's say on C, and from A-C you have 13 bars, then it will give you an estimate time frame(13 bars) in which you can reach your target. Cycle finder helps you to stay on a trade longer. It's just a guide. Please remember there's nothing for certain in the markets. But it's a good helper guide, I've been using it for years now. Pivot Profiler As soultrader said at the beginning, you need to qualify the initial wave in order to have a valid fib. That's called a "swing filter" I don't know what you trade but for ER2 (my favorite mini) anything less than 40 ticks It's not for me. Also for the swing filter, I try to avoid those that don't have minor corrections on the way. Sometimes I take them but that's another story. Like I said, I don't know which market you trade. But if you don't have a swing filter , you simply don't have a valid fib . If your fib comes down and passes .786 area, then you have a broken fib. Listen people, don't fall into a discretionary nigthmare like I did some time ago. If you like to be complicated and you're a mathematician who needs to be analytical and precise like a swiss watch in order to make money, well throw all kind of bells and whistles to the mix and my hats off to you. I sincerely respect that as not every trader posses the same personality. I like for my trading style to be simple and my charts to be as clear as possible. If you're curious about fibs and after a while you decide they fit into your trading style and personality, my advice is to use them on it's pure and simple form. As they come. PD: If anybody is familiar with trade navigator from genesis, I need a little hand, please. I am trying to do a screen capture but I can't find it anywhere. Regards
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Nice charts soultrader It's good to hear that you're using fibs back. I've been using fibs for 15 years and it's my weapon of choice for trading. I would like to add some suggestions first, I strongly suggest not to use fib retracements on tick charts. I have traded with fibs in all forms/shapes/gann's elliot waves etc available on this earth and tick charts don't give you an accurate pattern most of the time. I don't say they can't be used on tick charts but fibs are more related to actual time . As for your swing filter, I prefer the ones who have minor corrections(pullbacks) built in. Just a short explanation here. Fibs are a combination of price/pattern and time. That's one of the reason fibs are widely misunderstood. Another suggestion is to have a target. Many fibs traders are counting cycles (waves). Well that's good, but has to be done under the light of time. Some others has a fixed price target. I personally use a combination of the two. Has been more efficient to me. I used to manually count cycles. I recently switched to a broker who has a time cycle tool. It helps you to time how long you'll reach to your desired profit target( not to the T but they work really good most of the time). The minute I see a C correction, I begin to draw profit target lines and time cycles. I also use extensions but in that I am very discretionary. When I started trading, after try all indicators, bells and whistles know to man, I decided that I will have a better understanding of the market, I will have to use a tool that's forward- approach to instead of past history Andrew's pitchfork, pivot points, fibs, S/R Regresion channels and even trendlines have this particular forward approach to the market I was looking for. Because of that, a lot of discretion is applied and many times traders falls into a real discretionary nightmare. You have no idea how many nights I spent calculating and backtesting charts using ganns, elliot waves and fibs until one day I decided to get rid of plenty of stuff I had already built in and keep only fibs and time cycles. My trading improved dramatically when I decided to keep what I choose to be my way for trading and not to incorporate anything else. The thing is , fibs or not fibs, many traders are in this constant quest looking to mix all kind of things and when something doesn't work, they keep moving on to the next brand-new indicator until they get frustrated and sadly out of the market for good and pocket empty. Back to the fibs, My humble advice is to keep it simple as they are. They're just guides. Have an entry, exit and stop-loss points already in place and when you hit the signal, just go for it. Don't hesitate. Fibs are not always right, but they work enough times to give you a statistical edge My charts are brand new. I am still getting familiar with the whole package, but as soon as I learn how to screen capture a chart, I will show you how I trade, with precise entry and exit points and how to deal with a broken fib(because you'll have broken fibs along the way for sure) . Regards
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My trades are based on price/time relationship. A friend of mine has the squares and I personally think they tend to over complicate things. Look for confluence between fib extensions and fib times zones. It's a lot easier and equally effective. I use them all the time. Also time cycles are good.. I prefer fib zones. my two cents
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Thanks Tingull and Mr paul for the warm welcome!! My battleground is 5 minutes chart. I also look for the daily chart for overall trend and 60 minutes for intraday swings. I have a set of rules fitted to my trading style As the fibs, simple yet powerful. I play fibs in it's pure form, no indicators whatsoever. I am a full time trader. I also look for extensions if they fit my strategy. Sometimes they don't. I also use time cycles as well. Took me a long time to understand the significance of fibs retracements and when I did it the feeling was good. Mr. Paul, yes afternoon retracements has been present lately on ER, mostly on the downside. Always amuses me the simplicity of the fibs. Of course I respect other's traders opinions and strategies. A you know, fibs are not the holy grail. But they bring food to my table consistently. Looking forward to hear and learn from you guys as well!!! Regards
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Hi there Nice site! Very informative I am a plain vanilla fib trader. Love ER2 Congratulations soultrader for a nice-clean cut site. Regards