Dinerotrader

LOL More of this. Love it. I'll stop posting here. Sorry

Nice ending diagnal there. I know Thales uses these in the right context. I couldn't do much with it since it was right below my S/R level.

I'm not looking to become a quant guy, I just enjoy learning new things on a good forum like TL.

James, please do you share your experience as you explore this field. I am definitely interested in learning new trading techniques and perspectives. Just don't make the same mistakes as UB. Leave out the rhetoric so we can have an insightful quant thread that everyone can learn from.

Whenever you find an informative chart worth sharing please post here. Here's one I saw today that I thought was mildly interesting. A major issue for the many unemployed out there.

SIM -$750 Very bad day. The first time in a while the emotions got to me and put me in some stupid trades. Its like when price just won't go in any direction, my mind says "oh, you (oil price) want to just chop around, well I'll show you, I'll enter without any setup whatsoever! Ha!" I simply cannot watch the chart when oil is in preinventory lull. I will find something to trade so from now on I'll either find something else to trade during that period or sleep in a little and get to the charts in time for inventory. Of course today's post inventory action was slow and choppy but that is unusual.

3-17-10 The K contract is getting a lot of volume. Almost time to rollover. I'm glad price gapped up out of that chop area to start the morning. I'm more inclined to try a few trades before inventory.

DNN (Uranium miner) Here is one I jumped into today. I have made money from this stock many times. Hopefully the beginning of an uptrend.

Thoughts on tomorrow. We were at this same level on Wednesday last week when oil came out and we got a huge up and down move. The pink area noted below can be pretty choppy especially on a Wednesday before inventory so I might sit out the trades until inventory comes out. We'll see how the price action looks.

It has come to my realization many times that I learn things better when I force my mind to put thoughts into the written word. I have thought about starting an oil thread for quite a while but never did. So here were go. My hope is that this will be a good place for those that trade oil to exchange thoughts and ideas about historical analysis, tomorrow’s expectations, news events,etc. Brownsfan has a great post here which goes through some of the basic facts about trading oil but I’ll do a quick version to help the thread stand on its own. Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Info NYMEX Contract symbol: CL Open ECry margin requirement: ~$2,700 Pit open: 9:00 am EST Pit Close: 2:30 pm EST Tick Value: The trades in increments of $0.01 which represents $10 per tick per contract traded. Nice and easy. Monthly Contract rollover: The CL contract rolls each month. I keep a quotes screen up that has the current month and the next 2 months in advance with the total volume info listed so that when the next month’s contract starts trading with higher volume than the current month, I rollover. Here is the month lettering for rollover: Weekly Inventory (EIA Petroleum Status Report): Each week The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. It normally comes out every Wednesday at 10:30 EST but there are several times during the year when it is moved to another day due to holidays and such. Do not hold trades through this or execute trades into this report until you have experience. Historically, price volatility is more narrow from pit open to the time of this report so I make my profit targets very small if I am going to trade at all on Wednesday morning. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here is a historical look at the CL over the past years. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Historical S/R provides surprisingly consistent reactions from price. Here are the major levels I keep on my chart. The main purpose of this thread is to help those trading oil make more money trading oil through useful exchange of ideas and information. This is not my personal trading log.

Rich, I'm not asking you to post real time subscription data or that you do it on a regular basis. I am just trying to understand how you go from your statistical data you provide to the charts and trade planning from your point of view. If you could show for example, the CL data you provided last night along with how you would use the various data points provided in trade anticipation, that would work. Provide whatever you feel comfortable with, I'm just trying to better understand how to use what you provide and then determine if that compliments the setups I trade. I trade oil (CL).

Great summary post there Rich. Thanks. I am getting more familiar with the ideas here. Making the jump from this idea to your nightly statistical data is where I get some more confusion. If you can put together a post which shows the specific data you provide and how that can be used or not used that would also be helpful. Thanks.

You forgot to post your own numbers Cory. Yes, I am a CPA working a full time job at a fortune 500 company. I basically just get the work I am required to do completed and trade all other times. I go to work 2 hours early to trade the 1st 2 hours of oil and I can normally trade the 3rd hour uninterrupted as other employees trickle in (I live in Arizona so pit open is at 6:00am my time). I am too risk adverse to quit my job until I am making more than my current income with real money trading. I have 4 sons (twin 5 year olds, a 3 year old and a 1 year old) with another boy on the way and the wife doesn't work so I don't have a lot of room for failure. I have gradually traded more and more over time at work and made sure my superiors knew I was a "do the bare mimimum" kind of employee so they wouldn't give me more responsibilities. Thank goodness for Open ECry because they are the only broker I have been able to download and use on my corporate computer. More info than you wanted but I got on a roll. I hope more traders post their numbers here. I think it is really good for new/aspiring traders to see how much work time is actually put into trading. It also helps me to get motivated to make more time for trading development.

SIM +290 Wasn't expecting a trend up day. Had 3 full stop outs so things were looking bleak before the 3rd move up. A setup close to my most trusted setup occured after 10:00 EST so even though I hate trading lunchtime, I took it and got my 40 ticks to end the day well. Probably should add another contract when I see that setup. Getting up to trade at 4:15am is not going to be easy but were going to make it work.

Such a huge wedge that has been building for a year. I would only be looking to play a long. I'd be looking for a break above the top down trend line, retest of the wedge and then breakup again. Your basic H-HL-HH. With such a tight coil though, it might make a huge move when its ready to break. Who knows but definitely an interesting chart.

Great news! I just realized daylight savings started so I wasn't even trading during my most profitable time which is the hour right after open. :doh: I got all my charts adjusted and turned back my alarm clock. I'll actually be ready for open tomorrow. For some reason I had it in my mind that I didn't need to worry about daylight savings until April.

PLFE Here is one heck of a wedge. Look at the coiling of the last month's price action. Sometimes I wish I had time for stocks again. Trading oil is consumming all my trading time.

SIM $+410 After my first entry I was up 50 ticks. Had a few more good entries but made a miscalculation and got a full stop out which burned me bad. I have become somewhat dissatisfied with my under $450 days. My good day average should be higher at this point.

I worked at one of the big four accounting firms for 3 years auditing major corporations and after all the back and forth about whose to blame, here is the problem. The complexities of how to account for and disclose the kind of dealings companies are getting involved with is out of hand. I have been in conference calls with some of the brightest minds in accounting and there are constant issues and no clarity about how to report the ever expanding bucket of complex business deals. Derviatives have been around for a while but accounting for them and disclosing their fair value is still being changed and modified and that is not even close to as complex as the nuances that come from application of the rules regarding a companies' industry specific situation. Accountants that actually commited fraud, they definitely are to blame. But the accounting industry as a whole is always just trying to figure out a way to clearly disclose what a company is doing and what they are doing becomes increasingly more complex. The deal makers are the horse, accountants are the cart. Just thought I would add a CPA's perspective.

Thanks for posting this. Every once and a while 60 minutes has a good piece I'm interested in but I always miss it.

I was just wondering how much time others are putting in on a daily basis related to their trading career. I was trying to add up what I spend right now and thought it would be nice to see how much time others are also spending. If you would be so willing, please post your time spent on average per day as broken out below. A = Actual trading (watching the DOM, entering orders, etc..) B = Trading methods review, review of the day’s trading, record keeping, etc.. C = Researching new methods, reading books, reading TL for new trading ideas Here are my current numbers: A - 4 hours B - 2 hours C - 2 hours Total daily average: 8 hours I do expect that number to come down after a year or so more of trading but for now, I have a lot to learn.

SIM +$280 Another week gone by and ended up +$500 for the week which I am happy with considering the couple rough days. Swings were much better today but I was cutting everything short because of yesterday's range problems. Too many trades again.

You'll find with a little intelligent thought before posting that it is quite easy to participate in the forum giving useful knowledge to those interested without also coming across as condescending. However if you are trying to be condescending, because of some emotional motivation, you have succeeded. Hopefully this thread gets back to discussing the topic at hand instead of what "quants" think about other trading methods.

SIM -$270 Once I started playing for the small moves I made some money. I think I might adopt some kind of plan where I have larger profit targets for the 1st hour and then reduce those for the 2nd out of trading based on some price action criteria. Right before the close, 1,800 contracts were traded on a one minute bar and the bar only moved 5 ticks in either direction. That was the story of most of the day. Everybody apparently decided 82.10 is the right price for crude oil and supply and demand were equal. Not good for the speculators. Actually, when I looked at 6E and some other futures they had a similar wedge for the day. I'll probably stop trading natural gas unless I happen to be watching during a great setup or I might still trade it right after inventory.

Thanks Jason. Still need to move to real money trading and cut down the number of trades per day. If I can do those to things and keep my current results, then I will be happy.