Dinerotrader

DugDug, You seem to be the only one around that ever discusses long term futures holding. Can you put together a good summary post some of the basics of long term futures trading covering backwardation and contango considerations. I was just reading through good old wikipedia to learn more about this but I thought this thread in the beginners forum might be a good place for a thorough post from someone like you who has related experience. Just a suggestion. Thanks.

There isn't much discussion of long term futures trading at TL except the thread I linked below. It might get you started. Related discussion

Alright, still thinking about what EB said. Still. I have a new progression step from newbie trader to professional live trader. 1. SIM privately 2. SIM trade posting your daily results. 3. SIM trade with others following along with their own real money trading 4. Trade your own money live. If SIM is going well and you have a plan that is executable in a live setting, why not go start an account at Collective2.com You have minimal fees and you can go on simply SIM trading. If you are really any good, people will begin to pay you to follow your trading. Now you have hardly any risk yet rather large potential for income but it is all based on results. Want to prove you can trade well without risking any of your trading capital? This seems like a no brainer. Am I missing something?

In other words. Don't do what I have done.

Taking a short break from my P/L posts. I am trying to work on developing setups which have a higher win ratio and fewer entries. Here are the 2 setups I was watching today on oil. Took the first one but moved my stop to B/E to fast. Wasn't watching my screen for the second one although I had been just before and had marked the trendline and entry level already. I've been considering using trendlines mixed with S/R level. Trying to see how it works out over time. Gives me much fewer entries but I like the risk reward profile on most of these that I have seen.

IMO, posting your SIM results brings another level of accountability to your trading which increases the pressure and gets you closer to dealing with the pressure of real money. It is all for the selfish purpose of improving your own trading. No one with any maturity here is worried about impressing someone with their posted results. Good points though Sevensa.

I instituted a rule for myself last week that I cannot begin to trade unless I have re-read my trading plan which includes a list of my common mistakes. I have found it is easy for me to learn something from making a mistake in trading one day and keep making that mistake if I don't give myself reminders of it. I used to say, well I won't do that again, and find myself doing it again. Just a thought. Glad to see you posting here.

Are you saying you delibarately use different entry orders for your SIM than your real trades?

I keep thinking about this statement you made. Interesting on several levels. What do you think it is that causes such a huge difference between the your SIM and live money. Is it the money? If so, couldn't you post you entries/exits for someone else to trade so you have nothing at risk except ego. Cory posted something interesting saying that once he realized that he would be posting his SIM results (accountability), that was enough to throw off his game, money was no factor. I saw a big difference in my own trading when I went from secret SIM to posted on the forum SIM. It made trading much harder. It seems possible to me there is an "ego" and a money issue that seperately affect one's trading. If anyone wants to step up their SIM trading to something more challenging, simply start posting your daily blotter results here. No money at risk still, but you'll find many new emotional challenges. You have to decide when to stop trading, admit a losing day, everyday and every trade counts. Post the number of trades you made also. SIM normally doesn't account for commissions so $100 profit in one day is very different for a trader who made that in 3 trades and one who made that amount in 50 trades. Just a few thoughts.

These are some great posts. Good candid discussion about the transition from SIM to real money is so valuable. The journey of the transition will be different for everyone but there will always be similarities. My goal is to take more and more of the split second analysis from my trades so that the emotional/nerves factor won't be able to screw with my entry decisions so much. The emotions certainly weren't my main problem but it was a problem. I'll get this figured out soon and be back to get my money back. I think Brownsfan or Bathrobe took it by the way.

That would be nice. I think that same thing all the time.

Not sure yet. Entries and exit execution were exactly the same as the DEMO on OEC so that wasn't a problem. It is so hard to say because I barely missed 2 entries today that would have been big winners and yesterday I had to stop trading and flatten a trade which was a good trade so I could easily chalk up the results to a couple mistakes but that isn't good enough. I am just going to work on getting the entry number down further and define my entries in more detail. Hopefully, I can get back to real money in a month or so.

Real -$544 Well, I feel like a failure but oh well. Gotta keep working at it. I'll be going back to SIM now to see if I can fix a few problems I ran into. During these past 3 days of live trading I saw some issues that still need work.

No. Just trying to ride it a bit. Like I said I never play outside RTH so this is a new deal for me. Stop is currently at 83.32. 83.10 providing some big resistance today so I will surprised if it breaks. And as I type, I stopped out at 83.32. That was a fun ride. You are a brave man Jon, for holding those positions overnight. Not sure I could sleep.

I fixed my post above. Sorry. Stop is now at 83.41 because I am waffling whether I want out.

I'm short at 83.73. You should be able to see the red line on on the chart showing my position. Chart is probably too distorted. Sorry Stop has been moved to 83.41. Not sure I want to be in this position during the 1 hour period of no trading.

Here is a position I am still holding. Stop is at breakeven. I've never held anything past RTH close. Overall trend is up so I am not very optimistic. I'll actually have to wake up during the night to check on it if I am still in it tonight.

This morning's WSJ article.

I'm glad someone made money on that move. I had to leave for a meeting today right as the buyers were getting hammered in that second circle. I got short but flattened after a few seconds because I realized I had to go. :crap: Your ability to wait out the price action for the great moves is amazing Bathrobe.

Did I call that chop or what? Just couldn't get myself to stick to the plan today in my own trading for some reason. I despise this 82 price level on oil. We need some global change in the oil business to get ride of this "equilibrium level".

Wish it were SIM! -$999 Worst day in 6 weeks. Couldn't trade very long because of an early meeting so I had no chance to catch the move I was looking for. Emotions got me.. etc. We'll see if tomorrow's inventory moves can provide some good profit opportunities.

I was wondering if any would be willing to share how they went through the process of increasing their regularly traded position size. I realize it can depend on numerous factors so there isn't really a right way to do it so I thought hearing from other's experiences would help me develop a method. I'd like to incease my size as quickly as possible without letting my risk get out of control. It is very easy to look at your past results and just start multiplying by x number of contracts thinking you could have made x amount more with larger lots but this doesn't take into account all that goes into it. I threw this chart together to give me something to think through.

Back in my dreaded chop zone again. This area is like a huge magnet. Maybe we'll get a gap tomorrow morning to get us out.

Probably not. I thought about this several times and decided I just needed the victory on my first day. Good word of caution though. I have been SIM trading after I shut down the live platform. I figure it will take me 5 days or so to get used to being live. I was pretty calm during my trades today. Everytime I got a little nervous at all pre trading and during trading I just reminded myself that I had 5 weeks of consistently profitable trading to back up my belief that I could succeed. My work is going to get a little busier with quarter close starting in few days but I should be able to trade the first 2 hours of oil consistently.

That ain't SIM! Real Money +$212 Cut the trading short because I wanted to start myself off with a profitable day on my first real money trading day of 2010. I tried trading a couple days in 2009 with real money just to get the feel and quickly went back to SIM to keep working on the methods. I need to do some adjusting on my spreadsheet for presenting real money trades. I'll get to that today.