brownsfan019

No problem guys. I read the article in SFO and thought it would be a good fit here in the CC. Bigalow has some good work on candlesticks.

I understand what the intent is, just wondering if it will actually be of any use. Let's face it - spammers will just put whatever to pass the test and other users can put whatever they feel like as well. Some people prefer to have some degree of privacy when posting on internet boards, which is why I put na in my location. I really don't see why anyone here needs to know where I am located. Yes, you can make an educated guess by my username, but that's where the guessing stops. Regardless, I think the user should be given the option of what to display in their posts as far as their bio goes. In other words, give the user the option to display location, etc.

Let's just call it what it is - some people don't like others around here and as others have said, it can turn into an internet fight real quick and whoever is more popular will win. For example, sevensa and I did not see eye-to-eye last week. There's a good chance that one and/or both of us would have received some nice points there. Would it be justified? I don't know. Feels like this system would basically tell everyone - play nice & don't say too much b/c you might offend someone who can then try to get you banned. I guess this all stems from how much moderation and limiting discussions you want to have James. If you want an open forum, then this does the exact opposite. If you want a forum where everyone is treated as a child and all potential 'bad' posts are removed, then this will work beautifully. As my signature says - there is a block user function on this forum. If people are easily offended by user, then they can use it. That's what it's there for. I understand that some of my posts may irritate people, but it's your choice to 1) view my responses and 2) to reply to them. If you choose to do that, then I may choose to respond.

Are you going to disclose what the 'x' values are?

Interesting premise JP. I haven't traded options in a very, very long time but I would play earnings quite a bit. If you want to share more & keep the thread going, start a journal or join the p/l thread. One thing that seems to be lacking from many that post here - new or old - is any proof of actually trading. That alone is an incredible verification since so many refuse to do so. While you give an idea to play with, an immediate question that comes to mind is how do you narrow down your plays? For example, if you see 5, 10 or more plays on a day, do you play them all or focus on 1-2? How far out are you looking for your plays - a few days, the next day? What subscription plan on briefing.com can accomplish what you are doing here? Maybe that can get the ball rolling in the right direction.

Just curious James as why that was needed all of a sudden since there's no way to verify what a person puts there.

bath - I've noticed the winners appear to be for 1 tick and then this big loss. In the spirit of discussion and helping each other, I wanted to provide my feedback - which is, you can't take 1 tick on winners (and only 1 winner) and then let one losing day wipe a big part of those other winning days. I'd be curious to hear what causes the winners to be 1 tick and the losers larger. If the goal is 1 tick, are you sending your exit order immediately after entering the trade or is the 1 tick gain something that happens after being in the trade for a bit? My point is that if your goal (intended or not) turns out to be 1 tick, then I would just get my limit order out there to get 1 tick immediately. Hopefully your platform can automatically do this for you. If the goal is not 1 tick, but it turns out to be 1 tick most days, then it's something you need to work on IMO. If there's specific questions you have, feel free to post here, start a new thread or PM me and I will give you my email addy and we can discuss there.

868 - just so you know, posting a link to a website that is off of TL and where a chat room is being promoted could be frowned upon by the moderators around here. If your posts start to become moderated, you'll know why. Just a friendly heads up.

Good to see you posting something Tim that you worked on. I didn't bother back to that other thread, so not looking to stir the pot. Good luck on your trading and just keep in mind that this business takes a long time to learn and find your rhythm. Don't get discouraged easily and keep at it.

Frank - much more than I care to talk about here. Those involved know what's been going on and I'm just completely turned off by TL right now. It's too bad b/c TL was a great place at one point (I've been around for awhile - lol) and now while it has grown and I realize that's good for James, way things are handled has changed and I don't need the hassle when I am trying to help the overall community.

http://www.marketzar.com/ That's the only one I am aware of and doesn't look like it's been running lately.

Any reason why all of a sudden TL has to have my DOB and location?

4-6-09 Nice trade on the ZB after the first one failed. That's about it. I'm not sure how much more I will be posting here as the moderation around this place is just getting out of hand. Just tired of it. If the thread is helping you, keep it going!

Good to hear jimbob. It's interesting for me to watch these multiple markets and see when some markets are moving and others are at a stand still. Good to be involved in the ones that are moving.

$5000 and trading 2 contracts? Wow.... That's using leverage to it's finest. Seems a bit aggressive for new traders, but to each his own.

4-3-09 Not bad for 1 trade on the 6E. However, it should be stated that my exit was premature and not following protocol. And it's costing me some serious money as a result. Currencies offer some serious risk/reward depending on how you trade and while the ES is like watching paint dry, currencies and bonds were moving. Amazing how the picture can look depending on what you are looking at.

4-2-09 A day where if all trades taken, a nicer P/L would result. Frustrating when the plan is not followed completely.

Frank - great thread!!! Personally, I am a 'constantly learning' amateur at poker, but I think the parallels to trading are quite interesting. I recently came across Don Miller's blog and he uses a lot of poker analogies, so you might want to check it out. I view my trading as it is now very similar to how I play poker - a pretty straightforward, tight aggressive image. Basically I am waiting for my spots to pounce and look to get my money in w/ the best of it. That is similar to my trading now where I am watching multiple markets and looking to take the better setups that I have in my arsenal. The biggest difference is that in poker I use my tight image to make bluffs where appropriate and in trading, I definitely am not looking to bluff! Some other similarities that come to mind... Need to realize when you play your best game and focus on that. In other words, have to know when you are on your best game. Seems obvious, but I play really bad, loose poker when tired. I know this, yet will play sometimes late into the night. Knowing when to walk away - good or bad. With how I play poker, I am looking for 1-2 big bets per hour and if all goes as planned, I will most of them. It's VERY common for me to win a few big pots and then give a % back just b/c I feel like playing, I feel like I have 'house money', etc... It's tough b/c I enjoy playing but there are times when you need to leave. Not going on tilt... obviously easier said than done. I'm known to let off some steam when I take a bad beat at the tables and I am working on that. And that is why I think trading is so much easier than poker - the element of luck. IMO there is no luck in trading - you are right or wrong; in poker, you can have the absolute stone cold nuts after the flop and turn... and still lose on the river. Don references the Tao of Poker and there are so many trading ideas there as well.... Good book for 10 bucks. James (soultrader) used to play poker professionally if memory serves and I'm sure he's got some stories to share.

My thoughts... Bigalow does a lot of work w/ candlesticks and in my newer days, I would spend time at his site. I would highly recommend his books if you want to learn more about using candlesticks in your trading. Profitable Candlestick Trading: Pinpointing Market Opportunities to Maximize Profits High Profit Candlestick Patterns And he presents a good article here for someone to work w/ using candlesticks and moving averages, which we have also discussed here in a few threads.

Fine-Tuning Candlestick Trading: Combine Moving Average Techniques (note - link does not work in Firefox for me - use IE or IE tab) A candlestick reversal signal reveals an important market insight that makes it more powerful than all other methods of technical analysis. That signal reveals an actual change in investor sentiment—not just the anticipation of a possible change. The candlestick signal or pattern is the visual picture formed in the wake of a sentiment change. Having this tool in an investor’s arsenal can dramatically improve profits while reducing risk exposure. STANDING THE TEST OF TIME If one were searching for the “golden goose” of investment programs, the criteria would be simple: well researched, proven track record and easy-to-identify reversal points. This is the definition of candlestick analysis. All three of these elements are incorporated into candlestick signals. Hundreds of years of rice trading resulted in the identification of high-probability profitable trades. Candlestick signals exist today because of those many years of actual profitable trades. Not computer backtesting. Not theoretical results. Profits produced from using the signals are the only reason we are still witnessing these signals today. IT’S A SENTIMENT PICTURE Exploiting fear and greed created by the masses is a large factor behind professional investors’ profits. The candlestick signal is actually a visual depiction of investor sentiment and it graphically illustrates a change. This analysis allows a trader to pinpoint when the masses are creating a profitable opportunity. Most investors panic at the bottom, and they get overexuberant at the tops. Knowing this and visually seeing it happen forces the candlestick trader to buy when the buy signal is formed at the bottom, and they sell when the sell signal is at the top. Candlestick signals also offer an additional powerful insight not found in other charting techniques. Not only did the Japanese rice traders identify high-profit reversal signals, they added another significant aspect to candlestick analysis. They interpreted what investors were thinking (sentiment) when forming a signal. This process alone creates insights that put candlestick analysis light years ahead of any other trading technique. COMBINE WITH MOVING AVERAGES Traders can combine simple moving averages with candlestick analysis for additional confirmation and information on trade entry and exit points. The 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-period simple moving average are important technical indicators that act as powerful support and resistance levels. Global money managers monitor those two key longer-term moving averages closely and often base long-term investing decisions at these price levels. Candle analysis helps reveal what types of decisions are being made near or at these key moving averages. Visually analyzing investor sentiment through candle analysis at important technical levels creates the platform to enter or exit positions at the most opportune times. Applying simple rules for the use of moving averages, in conjunction with candlestick signals, greatly improves the probabilities of being in or out of a trade at the correct time. First, a little background on moving averages. The moving averages have a tendency to act as support and resistance. They also act as magnets for a price trend. Money managers may not have the inclination to buy during a downtrend until the price hits a support level. They may not want to sell until a price has reached the potential target, the resistance level. Another simple rule of thumb, if a price moves away from important moving averages too quickly, the price has a tendency to come back to the moving averages. RULES IN ACTION Using these simple rules with candlestick signals makes for a high-probability trade. As illustrated in Figure 1, a candlestick buy signal forms at Point A, which is known as a bullish engulfing pattern. This signal formed after indecisive trading (a doji and a small hammer signal). This combination of signals illustrates a strong reversal situation. Add in the fact that it all occurred at the 50-day moving average, and the technical evidence is strengthened that the next uptrend is in progress. SHORTER MOVING AVERAGES, TOO Traders can also combine candles with the eight-period exponential moving average (EMA). This moving average is effective for pinpointing entries and exits, as well as signaling the continuation of an uptrend or downtrend. How can this be used? When a candlestick buy signal is confirmed with a close above the eight-period EMA, the uptrend should continue until the formation of a candlestick sell signal and a close below the eight-period EMA. The opposite is true for a downtrend. A candlestick sell signal and a close below the eight-period EMA indicates a downtrend is in progress until a candlestick buy signal is followed with a settlement above that moving average. TAKING IT A STEP FURTHER Day traders can improve their daily trading results with additional fine-tuning of candlestick analysis with moving averages. Short-term trades can be implemented when the two-period EMA crosses the eight-period EMA following a candlestick signal. This dramatically reduces the number of times a trader will enter a trade that immediately fails or closes a winning trade before the full price move is over. See Figure 2 for an example of how the moving averages were used effectively while trading soybeans on a 10-minute chart. Point A shows a bearish engulfing pattern signal forming when stochastics revealed overbought conditions. These are signals to take profits after the recent uptrend. Also note how the two-period EMA moved a great distance away from the eight-period EMA. This was additional evidence that price was ready to pullback. The first viable target would be a test of the eight-period EMA. Will price use the eight-period EMA as support and move back up? A trader does not know that when taking profits at the bearish engulfing signal. When it pulls back to that level, the candlestick formations illustrate what investor sentiment is doing at that time. In this case, the price did not find support at the eight-period EMA. Additionally, the two-period EMA continued down through the eight-period EMA, indicating it was not time to buy. Point B shows a potential reversal. However, there were two indications that this was not a trend reversal. First, stochastics were still heading down, not yet at the oversold conditions. Also, the two-period EMA did not move up through the eight-period EMA. This lack of confirmation keeps an investor from getting into a bad trade. PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE It was not until Point C in Figure 2 that it became time to buy. The piercing pattern was followed by a bullish moving average confirmation. That confirmation came when the two-period EMA moved higher through the eight-period EMA; also stochastics were in an uptrend. Utilizing the combination of technical signals greatly improves a trader’s odds of being in the right trade at the right time. STAY IN YOUR WINNERS The two-period and eight-period EMA combination also prevents a trade from being closed too early. Additionally, the moving average pair can signal when to re-enter a trending price move if a trade were closed too early. As illustrated in Figure 3, although candlestick sell signals appeared in the uptrend, the two-period EMA did not cross down through the eight-period EMA. This allowed a trader to remain in a position that was moving to much higher levels. The candlestick sell signal at Point A might have indicated a time to take profits. However, the eight-period EMA was not that far away. Each time the price tested that level, a bullish candlestick signal formed and the two-period EMA could not make its way down through that level. Without the confirmation of the sell signals, traders could have more confidence to remain in the position. KNOW YOUR MARKET’S PERSONALITY Different moving average combinations work more effectively on various underlying markets. Although the two-period and eight-period EMA work well for trading forex or the E-minis, a 13-period and 34-period EMA combination might work better on coffee and cocoa 15-minute charts. For those trading the U.S. dollar, I have found that using the eight-period EMA and the 50-period SMA on the hourly chart to be a successful combination. The success of trading any market starts with a proven trading method such as candlestick analysis. From there, adding the appropriate confirming indicators can be easily tested for enhancing profitable trading programs. PUT THE ODDS ON YOUR SIDE Traders who use candlestick signals and then incorporate confirming indicators, such as moving averages, can increase their probabilities in spotting trend changes and their odds for profits. Ignoring the information contained within the candlestick signals could mean that a trader is leaving profits on the table. Mastering the various signals and patterns within candlestick analysis can allow traders to spot fear and greed and help identify high-probability trading opportunities. Stephen W. Bigalow is author of Profitable Candlestick Investing: Pinpointing Market Turns to Maximize Profits and High Profit Candlestick Patterns. & High Profit Candlestick Patterns ------------ THE BASICS Reversal points were identified by Japanese rice traders in the 1600s using simple charting techniques. The traders used the same information found on a standard bar chart. The difference is that they put more weight on the open and closing prices, as well as the high and the low for a period. As illustrated in Figure A, an open that is lower than the closing price creates a white (bullish) candle. An open that is higher than the close creates a dark (bearish) candle. The positioning of these candles, with analysis of the colors, provides valuable information.

Frank - it's helped me to focus on the job and getting it done so that I can show my comrades here the result of good work. That in turn helps me to just do the job the right way as I had hit a bit of mental block recently. I hope you continue to give it a try and see what it does for you. You'll never know unless you try. PS Nice day there!

4-1-09 Wish I had something to report today but not much happening on my end. Preoccupied with a few other things I guess. Back at 'em on Thurs.

It can also depend on whether you are buying/selling as a hobby or as a business. Full-time traders whose sole income is trading can get other deductions. Consult a tax pro w/ any serious questions though. Don't need Mr. IRS knocking on the door one day b/c someone on an internet board told you what to do.

3-31-09 6B not too friendly today. I will be back my friend. PS If you have not voted for this thread (see top of any page) and you post or visit here, please vote. Some new moron that wouldn't have the guts to post here has brought the ranking down again. Apparently watching real traders post real results is depressing to some!

Little update: one nice thing about zero'ing in on your prime signals and knowing they don't show that much per market is the ability to take the trade on multiple markets as I mentioned previously. Today I pulled a chart of wheat and gold, so I'm going to watch those and might tip my toes in to see. Also thinking about using the CL chart to trade the QM (oil) since the volume on the QM is pretty low but much lower margins, I can use the higher volume chart of the CL to get a trade on the QM. We'll see - that part is a work in progress - but will be watching wheat and gold as well in case you happen to see some odd ticker symbols. I'm very pleased with where this is going and I see now why some traders trade this way - find your prime setup(s) and then find the markets they appear on and trade there VS. staring at 1 market every day. I don't know why it's taken this long for the light bulb to go off, but better late than never. :idea: My only real restriction is figuring out the best way to monitor all possible markets. Currently I'm only focusing on futures as that's what I know, but this can easily be scalable into stocks if I wanted to go there. At that point I would require programming that can be done into TradeStation for stocks that meet my criteria but that idea is in the back of my head. Consideration has been given to starting a fund or something similar using only my prime setup here, but over many, many markets. I haven't directly looked at FX, although I am watching and trading 3 currency futures. And all the while working this on the same account which initially started at $10k. With that said, I don't recommend anyone new to trading take $10k and pull up 10+ futures charts and see where something might stick. I've gotten to this point after years and years of screen time and hard work to see that what might work better for me is to focus on 1 great setup over multiple markets.