brownsfan019

There's a few good threads floating around here somewhere discussing the merits of setting a daily stop - gain or loss - vs. continuing to trade. As you said, there's days where you will be in sync perfectly and should not stop. Other days if you continue, you'll give it all back. In the end, there is no right answer b/c it depends on you and your system. For example, there was a time where I traded all day, every day. And I thought that was the way to go until I saw too many days where the lunch/afternoon session could easily eat away all my gains and then some. So for me, stopping by 12pm EST was the way to go. That may or may not make sense for your system. My only suggestion is that if you are trading a trend system, you probably need to make a good amount of $$$ on trend days. The only way to be in trades on those days is if you continue to trade. If you keep your profit target at +6 on the EC, my guess would be more often than not, it will be hit. If you make that assumption, it would be easy to argue to keep trading all day... the answer to that question is really a simple analysis of win %. Add that to the tracking list - track how trades do the entire day vs. the chunks you are thinking about here. If your win % is high enough, then going for your 6 ticks may be something to do the entire day.

Easiest way is to use SnagIt or something similar. If you are taking screenshots of your trades from the day w/ annotations, then just use whatever you are using there. If you aren't doing that, well... now is a good a time as any.

I enjoy reading Don's blog as he tells it like it is and is selling nothing. I like his poker analogies and fighting out of a hole is something that you face in poker as well. I often find that when I lose a pot, I tighten up and play my A game - which usually results in winning a few nice pots. Same can be said in poker - when I am down, while it's hard, I seem to tighten up my focus and get the job done. When you are up, it's too easy to 'play' sloppy - either take trades you normally wouldn't, or call big raises with 5-6 suited hoping to hit a straight flush...

SJ - I think we are friendly enough here that I can provide my recos/concerns regarding your plan. Bear in mind it's my opinion and I'm just trying to help (don't want anyone to misconstrue the intent). RISK/REWARD IS A BIG CONCERN Some would tell you that risk/reward is everything, but it's not; however it is important to monitor. Since your r/r is going to be low (risking 20 ticks = $250 / to make 6 ticks = $75) your winning % will need to be high. WINNING PERCENTAGE Since r/r is low, you must monitor your winning % and find where you will be to see whether or not this system will work. MAX DAILY LOSS You say it's $300, but if you lose 1 time you will be at -$250. Are you planning to stop or keep trading b/c a 2nd stop will equal -$500? The way I see it, you'll need to revise that to say stop after 1 loss or 2 losses back-to-back. LOSSES The other consideration will be the average size of your loss. Your max is 20 ticks, but you say they can run smaller. While it's nice to plan for smaller losses, my comments make the assumption that a 20 tick stop can and will be in force. If you find the size of the stops to be much smaller, then the numbers obviously change. If you find your stops to be closer to 10 for example, the r/r is decent then and your max loss can take a few hits before being triggered. POSITION SIZING I'll be interested to see how your position sizing plan works. For documentation purposes, you might also want to track just trading a fixed 1 or 2 contracts to compare the end results. My concern on the position sizing you are going to implement is if trade #1 is a winner and trade #2 is a loser, your loss will be doubled, while your winner is only a single contract. So the key here will be the methodology showing you that more often than not, the 2nd trade will be a winner, so doubling up makes sense. This is why I would track just trading a fixed amount to compare b/c your numbers could look like this: 1 fixed: +6, -10 = -4 Pyramiding: +6, -10(x2) = -14 And potentially this series could repeat an entire morning... So the EXACT same trade there could cost an additional 10 ticks in loss that would not be there if trading a fixed 1 contract. Yes, I am assuming that 2nd trade is a loss to illustrate the worst case scenario b/c IMO you need to be aware of what can happen on the downside. The upside is easy, it's the downside management that can make or break a person. My concern is that you could have a small loss/break-even type day if trading a fixed amount, but a pyramiding style could magnify those losses and create a much larger loss on the day than necessary. Again, I am just thinking about the downside here. If the system constantly cranks out that 2nd trade as a winner, then the pyramiding would make sense. FINAL SUGGESTION Make sure you have a nice Excel sheet or something to track all the possible ways this system could be traded so you can see what the options are. What I mean is, track on the Excel trading a fixed 1-2 vs. pyramiding, track the win % overall AND of each type of trade (for example, is that 2nd trade where you pyramid doing extremely well or poor? If well, you might want to load up more there.) Classify your trades as a Trade 1/A/etc vs. a Trade 2/B/etc and track those closely. I have no idea how the Watts system trades, but if you have reversals and trend trades, track those as well. While you are seeing how this exact system works, don't waste your time - see how other variants of it also work. You might just find that certain setups (ex - trend following Trade B pyramid is your prime setup) are more reliable than others. Good luck!

5-11-09 Not the prettiest thing, but it's a win in the books.

James - help me out, what does that equate to in terms of US dollars?

I use Open ECry and very satisfied.

5-8-09 Little cleaner today.

and that would be ....

:doh: :crap: : :bang head: :frustrated: ...all of those are how I felt at one point today. I guess the key was sticking w/ the plan till the end.

5-7-09 Where do I begin today... :shrug: Let's review as this will be a day that I will want to reference later: 1) The 6B owned my ass today like no other... there is a caveat here though. Trade #1 was a great short that was literally ticked out for a loss. Price ran up exactly to my stop and took me out. If that doesn't happen, 1 nice easy trade and then trade #2 does not occur there. 2) The 2nd trade on the 6B was exited by yours truly even though the system did not call for it. I panicked when I saw the 6E move up some and wanted to 'save' from taking a bigger loss. What should have happened = just shy of a $300 gain. 3) I'm ok w/ that 6B loss on the first one, it's the 2nd one that is hurting right now. In the end, the 6B should have ended with a small loss. Obviously I f*cked that one up hardcore. 4) ES trade was great! Until I got out a little too soon. I was short into that monster move down, but got out too soon in hindsight. I'm ok w/ it though. 5) The ZB and I are having some marital issues right now. My timing was off today, although the end result was positive in that market. 6) I have to vent on the last ZB though... I was short ZB around 1030am EST. I held and held... I got out at 1245pm, which is an INCREDIBLY long trade for me. At 1300 the bond announcement was made and the damn thing cratered like no tomorrow. Could have turned the day positive and then some if I waited about 15 more minutes. Of course, that news could have taken it the other way and I take a big loss there. I wasn't in the mood for a loss as I knew this was going to be the last trade of the day. 7) Salvaging a loss of $231 works for me. I was just not in sync today and the 6B was really horrific what I did there. Back at it tomorrow. Going to have to keep my revenge trading in check Fri on the 6B.

Here's the thread I was talking about. Screenshots and commentary on the games played on the DOM.

I think you should ask James for your own forum area. Volume is a consideration, but should not be a deal killer IMO unless of course your methodology revolves around volume. PROS TO TRADING GLOBEX HOURS: * Very tradable, there is volume and trades going on * Can position yourself for RTH * Stops can be smaller than during RTH * Everything is smaller - moves, profits, stops - can work to the advantage of someone that prefers smaller stops * Some decent moves can occur when European markets open CONS TO TRADING GLOBEX HOURS: * Volume lower, which will normally result in smaller moves. If you are a quick momentum type trader, hard to accomplish here * Have to be very patient - you can get a move, but could take hours to get there = can feel like watching paint dry

Interesting... I personally won't be paying for news content, assuming most other sites keep it going for free. Sounds like he wants to get the iphone people to pony up for getting news on their phone and I could see that. Eventually these co's supplying iphone apps/services will need to be compensated. There's only so much you can make charging a buck or two for the app itself (if any $ at all). They can call it an 'iphone tax'.

Aaron - I think you'll find that the 6B and 6E can provide 1-2 good moves during the hours of 8am-1030amEST. The ideal position being to get in on the move and out before it gets exhausted, but there is usually a move or two to catch then. After 11am or so, the volume can drop off and the movements can get smaller. It's tradable, but not what I am after. So just keep that in mind when looking at charts. If anything, I'd suggest trading a little earlier 7am or so till about 1030am.

5-6-09 Got long the 6B and this trade I traded 2 contracts. Reason is that the 6E also had a buy signal, but about 30 minutes before I was ready to trade. The 6B triggered a signal and I doubled up there since the 6E optimal entry spot had passed. Frustrating when that happens, but not much I can do there unless I start earlier, which is a consideration.

To play a breakout you need some other confirmation, esp on the ES. If you have resistance at 900, when price travels there, you need something else to tell you it's time to jump on the train to 910 or whatever your upside is. Just buying above your resistance hoping for the move is too risky IMO. I like breakouts when they show up. For my trading they don't show up that much as I am typically looking to buy the LOD and sell the HOD.

Robert - I am in my 'longer term' plan, which is trade more size. No point of forcing trades and it's been working so far by focusing on my best setup, which normally appears in the AM. The setup itself does appear later in the day, but as I said in a previous post, there's a 50/50 chance that there will be enough momentum behind it to make it worthwhile. So the plan is just trade more and more size. What I am posting here is a snapshot from 1 account that started at $10k. I trade more than this 1 account, but I am using this 1 for purposes here. The only addition I could see myself doing is trading a little longer. Today was a day where if I kept going about till about 11am or so, there were other moves that that could have been taken. Problem is that after the first initial move, it's hit and miss whether or not another move will occur before 12pm (which is the latest I will trade). Basically on days where you see a \/ or /\ formation from 8am-Noon, I could have made more. On days where you see the first leg of the \ or / and nothing else, it's a good thing I stopped. From there the only other consideration would be exits. At times I can time the exit nicely and other times, I say 'woulda, coulda, shoulda'. At times just trailing behind some candles or something catches a huge move; other times getting out at my current predefined exits look very timely in hindsight. So all in all, I'd probably say that the exits could change - perhaps get most out like I do now and maybe a trailer or something. But that's down the road b/c the account isn't large enough to be trading multiple contracts in multiple markets, possibly simultaneously.

I hear ya. The filtering might be built in, so have a plan B in case James can't make the change. I cuss plenty while at my computer, so I'm w/ you.

All I can say is that if they worked 100% of the time, everyone would use them. In other words, some days they work like a charm and other days it's as if they don't exist.

JB - just find a workaround. use an ! or * or something. You are smart. Make your own little word for the chat room - maybe FARK or FLUCK - James doesn't need to be altering the chat restrictions.

For me there is zero use in watching the tape. Others would say they live and die by it. So I can't tell you what to do b/c maybe it will work for you. I'm just suggesting that many, many games are played so it didn't work for me. There's many ways to skin a cat my old high school math teacher would always say to us. While a rather archaic saying, it holds true in trading - where I see something a value, others will see nothing; and vice versa. That's part of the path to enlightenment - you will find a path that suits you.

B/c games are played on the dom and time/sales all day long. There's a thread floating around here somewhere where I detailed how things can look real easy one day and the complete opposite the next day if you pay attention to that kind of stuff. Huge games are being played on the doms and I don't even bother watching it anymore. You can see orders come and go in a blink of an eye. You can see a 'huge' buy order get filled and think that it will create support only to see it crash like a crater. Other times price will find support there. The issue at hand is that you have no idea what the intent of those orders - filled or not - truly is. For example - let's say I am a huge fund that is short 10,000 ES contracts and I want price to go down. Maybe I flash a 500 or 1000 order on the buy side and then quickly remove it when price gets close. Maybe I let it get filled so I can sucker the retail guys into thinking price is headed up, even though I am still net short 9000 contracts.

psb - you should join us over here when you are done for the day!

Here's what I watch, you can see if it fits you: OIL: QM, CL CURRENCIES: 6E, 6B BONDS: ZB Range and value is relative to the markets you are looking at. Some days, currencies will go on a tear and make the NQ look pathetic. Other days, indexes will take off and oil will be doing nothing. But that's the entire reason why I watch multiple markets - I'm looking to get in the market(s) that are moving. Can't do that if only watching 1.