brownsfan019

I only work from 8am-Noon EST. That's it. I want to be trading when things are moving, esp around news items. If you like seeing a profit occur in 60 seconds or less, it will have to be news driven more than likely. As I've mentioned before, I see 1 trading day as 3 cycles: Cycle 1: Morning/Open = movements, action, volume usually present. This is when I want to participate. Cycle 2: Lunch/Mid-day = movements, action, volume usually slows down and I want no part of that. Cycle 3: Afternoon/Close = movements, action volume may be there. Some days it's moving and other days it's a continuation of lunch. I don't feel like coming back after focusing for 4 hours so I view this timeframe as a 50/50 shot if things will be moving and I pass on it. There's plenty of reasons why cycle 1 produces the moves it does: Overnight orders hitting the open. Overnight news hitting the open. 8am-10am econ news - news regularly comes out during these times, which then gives the markets a reason to move. Volume is there as a result. Most days cycle 1 has volume = movements. If you find that you can make good money during times when it's moving, there's really no need to keep going all day when things might be moving. If you want/need to make more, increase size.

That would be better, but still not 100%. At least w/ a market order you'll know it would have been filled in real-time.

My charts are shut down for the day. I emailed them and asked them to take a look at the thread.

I'll drop a line to them and see if we can't get an answer.

That was a hell of a drop there on the Euro. Great job Mr. Bernanke.

You should assume that you need price to trade through your ideal entry to get a fill. Example: if you want to get long the ES @ 1105.50, price must touch 1105.25. Doesn't matter what simulator, just make that assumption. If you are assuming your limit orders that get touched would get filled in real-time, you might be in for a shock later.

Have you guys emailed OEC to see what they say? If not, try it out.

Trading, Sex, and Dying I actually found this book at a used bookstore over the weekend and prior to stumbling across it, never heard of it. That could be an indication of what's to come while reading it, but it was new and shiny. Amazon reviews show 3 - 1 good, 2 bad - so take it for what it's worth.

I was going to try to do this on the official book review area, but apparently that area had a major overhaul and started over. I had written up a bunch of reviews for that area on the old system and they all appear to be gone. Not about to do that again so here's the review.

The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History New book out about how much money Paulson made on the 'greatest trade ever'. Should be an interesting read. Just in time for the holiday wish list. Article about the book and story behind it. 'Greatest Trade': How You Can Make $20 Billion By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN Even as the financial system collapsed last year, and millions of investors lost billions of dollars, one unlikely investor was racking up historic profits: John Paulson, a hedge-fund manager in New York. His firm made $20 billion between 2007 and early 2009 by betting against the housing market and big financial companies. Mr. Paulson's personal cut would amount to nearly $4 billion, or more than $10 million a day. That was more than the 2007 earnings of J.K. Rowling, Oprah Winfrey and Tiger Woods combined. Adapted from "The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History," by Gregory Zuckerman. Broadway Books. Copyright © 2009 by Gregory Zuckerman. How did he do it? Believing that a housing-market collapse was coming, Mr. Paulson spent over $1 billion in 2006 to buy insurance on what he then saw as risky mortgage investments. When the housing market cracked and the mortgages tumbled, the value of Mr. Paulson's insurance soared. One of his funds rose more than 500% that year. Then in 2008, he shorted financial shares, or wagered that they would fall in price, profiting again when these companies collapsed. And are there any investing skills that average investors can learn from his success? Yes. There are no guarantees, of course, but the success of Mr. Paulson and a few other underdog investors lends encouragement to individuals trying to compete with Wall Street's pros. Here are eight investing lessons of Mr. Paulson's $20 billion gamble, the greatest trade in financial history: 1 Don't Rely on the Experts [Wesley Bedrosian] Wesley Bedrosian Many investors lost big in 2007 and 2008 as housing crumbled and the stock market tumbled. But no one lost more than commercial and investment banks caught with toxic mortgage-related securities. These bankers were the very same ones who created these investments, and Wall Street's top analysts had vouched for their safety, even as Mr. Paulson and others bet against the investments. Lesson: When Wall Street is wheeling out its latest can't-miss product, be skeptical. 2 Bubble Trouble Some academics argue that financial markets have become more efficient. But a rash of financial bubbles in recent years -- including housing, energy, technology and Asian currencies -- suggests that markets are becoming harder to navigate, and are more prone to overshooting. Today, investors of all sizes read the same articles, watch the same business-television programs and chase the same hot tips. They invariably head for the exits at the same time. Lesson: Have an exit strategy -- and cash to cushion any tumble. 3 Focus on Debt Markets Most investors track the ups and downs of the stock market but have only a vague sense of moves in debt markets. That's a mistake. Early signs of trouble were seen in sophisticated markets that don't get much limelight, like the subprime-mortgage bond market. These problems eventually felled the housing and stock markets, and the overall economy, a set of falling dominos that Mr. Paulson and his team correctly anticipated. Lesson: Debt markets can do a better job predicting problems than stock markets. 4 Master New Investments Mr. Paulson scored huge profits by buying credit-default swaps, a derivative investment that serves as insurance on debt. When risky mortgage bonds tumbled in value, Mr. Paulson's insurance soared. But many experts were flummoxed by CDS contracts or shied away from educating themselves about these relatively new investments. Mr. Paulson and his team had no experience with CDS contracts. But they put the time into learning about them. Lesson: Educate yourself about the range of exchange-traded funds being introduced, some of which can play a valuable role in a portfolio. 5 Insurance Pays A number of investors worried about a bursting of the housing market, but few did much about it, even though insurance, such as CDS contracts, at the time were selling at dirt-cheap prices. Out-of-the-money put contracts -- options that pay off only if the market tumbles -- also were trading at reasonable levels. As cheap as this insurance was, many pros ignored it. Lesson: Don't underestimate the value of a safety net, such as put options. 6 Experience Counts Some of the biggest winners in the meltdown were middle-aged investors dismissed by some as past their prime. But they had experienced past market downturns, while some of the bankers and analysts caught flat-footed knew only good times. Lesson: A historical perspective can be a valuable tool. 7 Don't Fall in Love With an Investment In early 2009, Mr. Paulson became more bullish about the banks and financial companies that he had wagered against in 2008, after determining that these companies had improved their balance sheets. The moves resulted in profits this year. Lesson: Even the greatest trade doesn't last forever. 8 Luck Helps In early 2006, Mr. Paulson determined that housing was in trouble and set out to profit from the impending fall. But some housing experts already had determined that real estate was overpriced; others had wagered against housing but could no longer stomach their losses. Just months after Mr. Paulson placed his historic trade, U.S. housing prices began to fall. Lesson: Don't risk too much in any one trade, even one that seems like a sure thing.

esurance is the company. It's an online only gig. Thanks for the help, it's appreciated.

Here is how to load up the Value Chart in Open ECry for anyone interested.

Here is the VC for Open ECry.

daedalus uses the Value Chart in his trading and a few of his posts demonstrate this (example and example). In my search for improving exits, I put the Value Chart (VC) on my Open ECry charts. Attached is the code and screenshots of how I plot it. Thanks to BluRay for his help as always! The best coder on TL! MAIN WINDOW SETTINGS I USE: WHEN YOU CLICK ON COLLECTION, SETTINGS I USE: HOW IT SHOULD PLOT: Code is attached in a txt doc. Open it up, copy and paste into OEC trader. Here's how to do that if you don't know: 1) Right click on chart > Indicators > Show Library 2) Click top left > Easy Language Indicator 3) Delete what is there 4) Paste code 5) Right click compile 6) Save and should be ready for use Again, thanks to daedalus & BluRay for their help. Value Chart for Open ECry.txt

GRAINS OIL & GOLD BONDS And currencies (I like the Euro).

I have talked to the BMV and here's the circle I am in: BMV says you were in an 'accident' and that's what we show. We do not show you at fault, just that you were in an accident. Ins. company says you were in an 'accident' and now you are rated. Get that removed and we will rerate you. BMV says nothing to remove b/c they just list 'accidents'. + :doh: If this isn't the biggest scam, I don't know what is. And I'm finding out that this is just how it's done. Luckily some ins companies will actually research to see if you were at fault before rating you. So far I've found that State Farm does this. But I guess it's just common - when I went to geico's site to get a quote, it specifically asked me if I was in an accident in the last 5 years even if I was not at fault. It was clear as day what they were asking... So I get bent over b/c some 16 yr old girl that had barely been driving much hits my car. My record is pristine other than this 'accident'. And now it's going to sit there for 3 years. I will be calling my attorney just to see if there's a legal way to push this.

11-16-09: +$1007.50 Great way to start the week. What can I say, everything worked. Gotta love this oil chart: I did use the value chart to help time my exits better and after 1 day of testing, so far so good.

Dinero - I have 1 piece of advice here.... The amount of indicators out there is like pandora's box. Once you open it, you may literally spend the rest of your life trying to find that perfect combination that works each and every time... only to find out that doesn't exist and you're back to where you started. I know the grass looks greener on the other side, I've been there too. Like Thales, I spent more money than I care to think about on the 'holy grail' systems out there. Result was a ton of wasted time and money. Based on your posts in the p/l thread, I think you are making huge progress and that's w/o any indicators! A part of you is saying - yeah, but... imagine if... maybe if .... But I think in the end you'll end up saying - that was a waste of time. So my suggestion is to resist the urge but if you need to try it out, just be prepared for many, many, many hours spent on this. Have you seen all of what is tucked inside OEC trader? And there's so many more that aren't included there. If you want to go this route and test stuff out, here's what I would do - find something that could help with EXITS. As dae mentioned, he's using the value chart to help with timing of exits. As I've said many times here, exits are my crutch and I'm always looking for something to test out. I put the value chart on my charts to see how exits would compare to what I am doing now and we will see... Even now, after all these years, I still have trouble resisting that temptation. And that's what I think a few of us are trying to save you from. So if you want to try something out, throw up the value chart and see how it looks for exits. I have a basic one that I'm using in OEC and I'll put it in the OEC area of the forum if you want to try it out. Just be aware that once you open this box, it's next to impossible to shut it back up. Thales is one of the few that I've seen be able to do that.

Brian - esurance knows I wasn't at fault b/c no claims were made! And their rep told me that too... BUT their policy is that if something is on your BMV, you are rated. So my Ohio BMV shows 'accident' doesn't show fault or anything, just that I was in an accident. And esurance says - too bad, you are now rated. I've since found out that each company handles this differently. Some do what esurance does and others do not penalize you if you were not at fault. I will continue the shopping around next week. I just can't believe this is even a possibility.

11-13-09: -$182.50 What can go wrong, will go wrong when your mind might not be in the game... I'm pissed about this stupid car insurance situation here and not sure if I was 100% in it today. I was in the ZS with you Dinero but took it out for a breakeven after my first trade was a loser. Very poor exit on my part.

At this point dinero, I wouldn't touch the fundie side. Trying to get the fundies to say exactly what your 1 min chart for daytrading is saying is not easy. Fundies are big picture items and you are trading for ticks here and there. When you mention the market wizards, if memory serves, quite a few were swing traders or took swing trading positions. If that's the case, then I would definitely consider the fundies on those trades. But for trading for ticks here and there, don't waste your time.

You would think. I thought so too. Now my rates are up 45%. That's amazing. How this is allowed to happen is beyond me. What a racket. And here I thought the stock market had some shady people working in it... The car ins industry makes these guys look like saints.

Dae or Kiwi - can one of you start a thread on the value chart? I'd like to take a peak to see if it can help w/ timing my exits as dae has done here. Thanks Edit - maybe this is it: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f56/ttm-ddf-value-chart-3388.html

So far I've been told to sue the BMV and/or get the accident report and then get a lawyer. What a pain. Moral of story - don't follow a police report unless absolutely 100% necessary. Nice system they have in place there - reward those that don't file the appropriate reports. Lesson learned.