brownsfan019

I promise that if you do that 1 time w/ real money on the line you will never, ever do it again. I just hope it doesn't take that for you to remember that Wed is inventory day on oil (most weeks). I use gmail calendar and have certain things programmed in their every week and I get a reminder box pop up to remind me - one of them is oil inventory.

You know what I'll say - check the ZS out for sure. CL + TF + ZS = quite the trio of liquid, quick moving markets IMO. There's also bonds and the Euro. Some good choices there as well. I have a love/hate with the Euro so I don't trade it much anymore. I do like Bonds but prefer to focus on oil due to bigger profit potential.

Charts look good dinero! I don't really use the bigger timeframe or view much, so I don't have much to contribute there. But if it helps to post, keep doing it. Eventually we might snag an ES guy to come over to our side.

I watch it but I just like the moves on Soy and get trades there just about every day so I focus there. Typically my grain trade is the last one of the day and I just focus on Soy b/c I like the movements. Just make sure to watch wheat or corn intraday to get a feel for them. Not quite the same as Soy IMO.

I'm sure $500 (or less) margins attract many of the $5k pikers that last a week and are gone. And if the majority of retail guys are trading this and the majority of retail traders lose... hmmmm..... :hmmmm: Honestly Dinero, I could care less what others are on this forum watch or trade as there's no way to distinguish those that trade for a living and those that trade for a hobby. If you aren't doing this for a living, your opinion is coming from a very different point of view than mine. This is not a hobby for me as it is for many. If we know that the herd mentality is typically wrong, then I want most retail guys trading the ES and grinding out a tick here and there. If we know that most retail traders lose and fade out and most want to master the ES (but never do) then I want nothing to do with those odds. If we know that the big boys and their algos are all over the ES and they are much better at this than me, I want nothing to do with that. Here's where a poker analogy can work - when you pick your poker game, you can pick what opponents to play. There's the big games @ Bobby's room in Vegas or there's 1 penny / 2 penny online and everything in between. If you can easily beat $1/$2 but get crushed at $100/$200, do you keep playing $100/$200? I say no. I say beat what is easier and take the profits. That's me. Some would say keep playing the $100/$200 b/c you might eventually beat it if you can survive long enough. Same with the ES - you might eventually beat it but many will fade out before that time ever comes. In the end, you get to choose your opponent in trading. I choose to go where it's the easiest (read: not easy) for me to make money. I choose to go where my setups routinely work and yield net positive results over time in the easiest way possible. And right now, that means trading oil, the Russell and soybeans. If one of those die out, then I will look for a replacement or just trade the 2 that are working. This is also why I think it's smart to watch multiple markets and trade your highest probability setups vs. staring at 1 market waiting to trade. Can you imagine staring at the ES chart all day? No thank you. Choose your trading opponents carefully as they are out for 1 thing: YOUR MONEY.

It's simple really - the ES has the most volume, which tells us that the biggest traders with the biggest, fastest computers and the biggest bankrolls are playing there. And it's not even humans you are up against, it's massive computer algo's that can make a decision quicker than we can blink. It's also why you'll see the ES creep up 1 tick, then down 2 ticks, then up 3, then down 1... those guys are trading such huge size they can make a killing just pushing it up a tick here and there; meanwhile retail guys get shaken out easily. The Russell on the other hand does not have that same participation? How do I know? Look at the volume. Even though the bots may exist there, they cannot play the same huge volume push games that are played on the ES. Other bots and/or retail guys would crush them for doing that. When the Russell decides to move, it moves. IMO it's a more level playing field. As I said in thales' thread, trading is hard enough as it is, the last thing you want to do is to create even more hurdles to jump - whether that be trading forex where quotes can vary or the ES where the bots will churn you up slowly but surely. The Russell reminds me of oil and soybeans - plenty of volume to daytrade, minimal bot activity and tremendous swings. My current Russell profit target is 3 pts = $300. $300 on the ES is asking for 6 ES points. Good luck getting into an ES trade that swiftly moves 6 points w/o chopping you up or grabbing your stop; however the Russell can and does move +3 pts at times like nothing. The ES is great if you are going to trade huge size and go for smaller ticks IMO. Bathrobe is one of the few retail guys that I've seen do it. Dropping the ES from my trading was one of the single best things I ever did to increase profitability and lower stress levels.

Dinero - I know it's not the day you were looking for, but DO NOT TOUCH THE ES!!! I'm shocked that you didn't touch it at all in your sim and then you go live and decide to try it with real money? That market is so 'botted' to death that it's not for the new trader, nor one that hasn't touched it before. Please turn that chart off. Use the RLM if you want an index.

11-24-09: +$450.00 Couldn't quite get in sync w/ the ZS this morning but was able to salvage a small loss there. Nice easy short on CL. Not sure that I will trade on Wed, so this might be it for me this week. Good 2 days in a row too bad this is a short week.

Wise words BF. Unlike some things in life, the cost of the product in this business has zero indication of it's worth.

No idea - you'd have to pull up some charts and see.

As long as these markets are moving, I'm happy regardless of the cause!

Just to add my This is the very reason I don't touch forex. You guys are trading the same thing, yet could have different results/charts/prints simply based on the product being traded. IMO trading is hard enough w/o adding in more things going against you which I think is being demonstrated here. I just like clean, crisp charts with 1 centralized pricing location = futures.

I think it's important to note for others reading this that the system being discussed is possibly no longer being used by the original author of the system. That's kind of important to mention IMO. B/c the follow up question is - if it was working so good, why scrap it? Again, in the interest of full disclosure.

While there are 3 main bond futures, they each have their own little tendencies. I'll do my best to explain here but nothing is a substitute for chart time. That is one thing I love about OEC - I can just pull up any chart I might be interested in without any costs or calling up a data vendor and paying more fees. Here's how I view the bond futures: ZB - king of tick value now that it's $31.25 PER TICK=1 PT. Yep, that's not a typo. It now moves in full point increments which is a recent change. It usually is the 'least' liquid of the 3 but that's all relative. I traded the ZB for a while when the tick value was $15.625/tick. It has good moves overall. ZN - most liquid and has good moves as well. Tick value is $15.625 here so it's lower than the ZB and provides nice moves. ZF - is more 'spikey' IMO. If you put these charts side-by-side, I think you'll see the ZF spike more when the other 2 aren't doing as much. If you want more volatile and quicker moves, then the ZF is a good choice. I would strongly recommend having resting profit target orders out there as it's very common to see it spike and then quickly retrace. If you hold out for a big move, it may not happen. With all that said, I've been focusing my early morning trades on oil and bypassing the bonds for now. I can't argue with the results I'm seeing on oil, so I've put my focus there instead of bonds.

I also just read a post on et that said he's not even trading the AHG anymore - into finding bottoms and tops now. I have no idea if accurate, but I recall reading that here recently.

ZF = 5 yr notes ZN = 10 yr notes This is the grains thread. I think you want this thread if looking for bonds.

I think the Risk Monitor is what you are after: More info here.

OEC has it, but I don't use it. I'm the opposite of you - I like the control the DOM offers and since that's what I've been using for so long, that's what I'm comfortable with. I've played with the chart trading on the demo and it's nice, just not for me. Get a demo and try it out.

Dinero - good luck tomorrow and just try to keep the emotions in check. I know it's easier said than done, but just go w/ the flow of what you've been doing. Try not to overtrade as that's a great way to make OEC rich, but not you. You gotta start somewhere, so get to it on Tuesday. Remember this is a short week so I would trade Tue and maybe Wed and that's it for the week.

Date changed, thanks. RLM = Russell.

That's a pretty broad topic. IMO if you want serious interaction as some threads get, you need to 1) start it going yourself and 2) provide concrete examples with screenshots. See this thread for an example of a thread on fire as the result of the OP getting it going.

11-23-09: +$620.00 I took every trade the system triggered, so that's good. I wanted to get long the Russell right off the open but didn't quite get the entry signal I wanted. In hindsight it would have delivered, but it would have violated the setup. Also attached is a 1 min GCL chart from today for the person requesting that.

This looks very similar to what is being discussed here.

diablo answered your question and I've posted CL charts in this thread and around TL.

I would question trade #2 if one could have held through a very healthy retracement. Trade #3 could have been an easy trade based on when you entered in comparison to the retracement up. IMO there looks to be 1-2 easy trades and 1-2 trades that takes some serious fortitude to remain in the trade.