brownsfan019

Allow me to play devil's advocate with myself - I would also suggest that with the amount of games being played on the DOM, you do the OPPOSITE of what the dom is 'telling' you. Again, just an idea here, so do your own homework. It just seems in the limited times that I've noticed the bids or asks heavily outweighing each other that price will move AWAY from these potential large bids/asks. Part of the reason is that many of them end up getting pulled before any possible realization of being filled. So think about it... if you had the ability to trade large amounts of contracts and could play these little games, you could easily manipulate how people read and react to them by putting on and pulling your offers quickly. One reason why I like this idea over trying to read the real bids/asks vs. fakes is that more often than not, when you are going off the dom and with the large bids/asks, you are going against the short term trend. Doing the opposite of these puts you in with the current intermediate trend some of the time. Just some food for thought.

Outside of the risks associated with holding overnight and margins, is there anyone here who does/has hold overnight positions simply b/c there's no reason to exit your trade at 4:15pm EST? What I mean is - outside of the 4:15pm 'deadline' for trades remaining as daytrades vs. overnight trades - has anyone held a position overnight b/c there was no systematic reason to exit? Reason I ask is that with the VBC's, the charts are very clean and while it can take HOURS to print a candle, that's ok if the trade remains in your direction. As a matter of fact, I think we've seen bigger moves occurring during the overnight session some days vs. what we get during the day. The VBC quickly and easily cleans up the charts (I'll post an example or two later) and if I just looked at my charts there would be no reason to exit ignoring the time scale. Just wondering if anyone has held a position into overnight and how you managed it b/c the 4:15pm deadline was not enough to force you out of a trade. I've mainly viewed the 4:15pm deadline as just that - a deadline to exit your trades, regardless if you would normally exit or not outside of the time deadline.

Is that a formula you can disclose here for us Walter? Is it something you can do in a casino? Just curious.

Hey Walter, Glad to see things are coming together. I take a look at your other threads and the interest is there, that's for sure! Continued good luck, but I doubt you are going to need it. Keep up the great work and I'll be watching from a distance.

I think the easiest way to get this going is to have days/times published for poker games a few days in advance. It's safe to assume the best times will be outside RTH, even though that can mean different times based on what people are trading. I'm open to games after 4pm EST.

No prob Abe, just helping out. Glad that some will be able to take advantage of that offer.

This has been debated on ET before. The thought process is: YM tick @ $5 ES tick @ $12.50 Therefore, the 'cost of slippage' is less on the YM if you assume that when you place an order on the YM and ES, there is no slippage. Since the tick value is less on the YM, it costs you 'less' to trade here. The serious assumption here is no slippage. The YM trades about 1/10 the volume of the ES so if you trade any decent size, you will see slippage on the YM; whereas you may not on the ES. So, the question then becomes how much slippage are you seeing on the YM. For every 2.5 YM slippage points, you'd do the same on the ES. So in theory the YM could be 'less expensive' when trading small lots. When trading larger lots, you will see some slippage AND you can EASILY send some red flags. What I mean is, if you throw a 20, 30 or 50 lot on the YM, that will not go unnoticed. Throw a 100 lot on the ES and it's just normal trading biz. When trading larger lots, the last thing you want is to send a red flag out there in my opinion. In the end, the ES is where the serious money is at. I suggest trading there as soon as possible b/c that's where you will end up trading, whether that is 3 mo's or 3 years from now. The ES has it's own characteristics as you guys have pointed out a few here, but it will take some serious screen time to see more.

If they do sell the info Reav, I haven't noticed. Maybe some spam emails, but it's been awhile since I've gotten a prospecting call.

This is one of the few futures publications that I will read. It's not fluff stuff like you see in many of the other 'newbie' trading publications, but it publishes hard numbers and what's going on behind-the-scenes.

If you are interested in futures magazine, here's a link that should take you to a signup for a free subscription: http://www.submag.com/sub/fz?wp=free It looks like the normal signup is $68/yr if you go thru their website.

Just a little update here on the VBC efforts - I am still chugging along with them. It seems that when the thought comes to stray back to minute charts, I am quickly reminded that for me, there are many benefits to the VBC's as outlined in the thread. One thing that has really stood out to me when comparing the minute vs. VBC chart is the size of my stops. In a 5+ minute chart, there could be a good looking pattern, say a hammer, but requires a rather large stop. And by large, I am referring to anything over 2 ES points. For some, that's not a big deal. For me, I would prefer to keep the stops under 2 ES pts initially. The easiest way I have found to do that is to utilize the VBC's. With the VBC, even on higher settings, I am keeping most stops below 2 ES pts. As for the settings to use on the ES, it's all over the board. I've played with 2000, which is requires incredible focus, up to 50,000 which I like right now. It's a function of the volatility and current volume as well.

Just read thru the thread and if you have any questions, feel free to post them in that thread.

I agree - there needs to be more here than check me out on skype. I would venture a guess here that something is for sale and you will find out while on skype...

Bear, I would just play with it and see. For volume based charts, this is an easy calculation as illustrated above. I do not use tick charts, so hard to say what is best here. In terms of keeping things similar and smooth, have you considered volume based charts? Just an idea.

We know as traders that when the markets fall, they can fall hard. What's the catch? A day like this is not common at all and anyone that thinks they should prepare for the giant short day will get hammered in just about every other market condition. Don't get me wrong, we want to catch this move when it happens, but just do not fall in love with shorting b/c one day had a massive move. If you can constantly predict this move, more power to you. Most others will not be able to do this with regularity, so it's important to not get caught up in one day of big action down. And even though these days are not common, you have to at least be aware of a possible strong trend day if you do not trade the trend well. A day like Fri could wipe out many accounts if you were just waiting for that bounce to happen.

We had a thread while back about why traders love to short, but I could not find it quick in the search so here's a new thread. The discussion was why do some traders some to fall in love with shorting. Why does it seem like you read about shorting, esp on a daytrading perspective, more than going long. Well, here's why:

How about we just call it a red spinning top at resistance? Much easier to see in my opinion.

Bear, When I compare volume based charts, same premise as the tick charts, you have to keep your ratios in tact to get somewhat similar results. In other words, if you like a 100 tick chart on the YM and let's say average volume is 100k per day (easy to keep the math simple but you get the idea) and the ES ave volume is 1mill. So, 100 tick on YM = .1% ratio .1% x 1mill = 1000 tick chart If my math is correct here, that's saying a 1000 tick chart on the ES is the equivalent to a 100 tick chart on the YM in terms of attempting to keep the ratios the same on both charts. A way to 'even it out' while looking at different markets. This idea holds true on volume based charts, but I don't trade tick charts so maybe it may not work as well. It might give you an idea of where to start and you can adjust your settings from there. 1000 ticks may be a lot, I don't know, but you can see that your setting will probably have to be much higher than 100 to mimic your YM setting.

Tin, Thanks for sharing and bearing with me. It's been so long since I even thought about a call or put, let alone a condor that I needed some refreshing. I'll see if I have some time this weekend to throw up some charts and see what you think.

And in the end the Iron Condor just says - as long as price stays between my levels, profitable trade. If it reaches or approaches either level, you may need to do something as the trade did not work as planned. Is that the idea and the rest is simply the mechanics? If so, I could outline some possible S/R areas and you could illustrate how an iron condor would work?

OK - how do you determine how big the spread should be between the strikes? And how does that affect the bottom line? In your trade here - if price goes PAST either level, that is not good, correct? And as for needing two, that's b/c the long and short basically 'cancel' each other out so that you are not selling naked? This still allows you to sell the position as you have done here, but you are not naked b/c both sides are 'covered' in some fashion?

Tin - also, do you have to have 2 strikes on each part of the condor? Can you just sell a put and sell a call? Or is there a reason for the 2 strikes on each part?

Now that you are filled Tin, that is telling us that someone out there is speculating that the market will reach either of the levels and if so, they will cash in, correct? So from their point of view, they are spending a little to hopefully make a lot, even though the odds are not in their favor? Just trying to get a handle on both players here. You are playing the probabilities and saying I'll collect this 'small' amount b/c the odds are really in my favor. The other person is saying I will pay this 'small' amount b/c I am paying so little for it. Am I getting there?

Interesting stuff Tin.

At one point Adam it had people but has been dead for awhile I think. I haven't visited recently so I could be wrong.