brownsfan019

Just curious dog - are these picks printed on the free portion of the site or the pay for use portion? I'm trying to construct a way to screen for stocks and IBD may be a good place to start. What are your thoughts on the IBD? Been awhile since I picked one up.

Nick, Nothing like that exists in the US to my knowledge. I do know however that they are quick to put these guys down if they attack at all though.

We may be onto something here Tin - with my candle analysis and your VSA confirmation... hmmm... can you say 'hedge fund' PS I am not joking.

Tin, Check out that hammer on PBW towards the left side of your chart. That's what I am talking about in this thread. WOW.

Good observation Tin. I am not a VSA trader, but we both see the same thing - a test of the hammer that was defended by the bulls. Either way, the result is the same - confirmation of the previous hammer and/or a reason to initiate a position.

For me Nick, I don't care what color the hammer is. I see a bullish price candle, regardless of color. That could be a screen for hammers though and maybe others have found otherwise.

I should note something on those plays after I got some sleep - I didn't see many (if any) where there was some support level around. I would prefer to see any level tested before and with the free stuff available at prophet, I didn't see any. Most of these looked like these were new lows, at least recently. The potential concern there, as you can see in a couple of these is that you may need to take multiple hammers or whatever before one works. You could also be caught buying into a strong downtrend. Point is that tread carefully on just buying high volume hammers w/o any other support around. And as always, make sure to do your OWN homework and due diligence before placing any real money on the line.

Good to hear Reav! I'm a dog lover as well and it's nice to see a fellow TL member taking such a strong interest! Good luck with your new friend.

stanlyd - feel free to post some charts so we can visually see what you are talking about.

James, As illustrated here, there are 3 possible entries if you play the hammer. Basically, once a hammer is formed and confirmed by whatever you use, you have to act. Waiting for the close of the NEXT candle, esp on a daily is just waiting too long in my opinion. Sooner or later, action must be taken when you see the hammer. Once a confirmed hammer is seen, the entries can be: 1) Buy @ market next day 2) Buy if price the following day is somewhere in the body of the hammer (you are trying to get a 'better' price) 3) Buy as soon as price clears the high of the hammer I realize there's other ways to enter, such as waiting for a candle after the hammer to confirm your bullish movement. Problem is, as you've seen James, how long do you wait? At some point, you are no longer playing a hammer. If you get a large bullish WRB the next candle, now you are playing an engulfing candle or some other pattern. The hammer pattern by itself requires action to be taken the following day.

One piece of advice for anyone trading this or tracking - Wed is Fed Day and this one could be interesting. Point is that holding a long with a snug stop is a risky play. It could be prudent to simply exit by the close of business Tuesday or early Wed. Just a heads up. Now, a pure chartist will simply just do what the chart says to do.

As I browse through some charts - stocks, etf's, futures - one thing really jumped out at me - how powerful some of these hammers on the daily charts are. Is it really as easy as finding the high volume hammer after a down move? I don't know, but it's worth watching in my opinion. We can find some great charts and others that failed miserably, so the question is can high volume hammers on daily charts make money in the long run? And can you play enough of them so that the statistics stay in your favor? That's probably the biggest question - finding high volume hammers is easy, but how much capital would it take to maximize the return here and minimize the risks? Maybe we can make this a thread about hammers with some examples - both good and bad - and perhaps this can help a trader or two out with a rather simple 'system'. There's a few words of caution when playing these kind of trades: 1) You may have to take 3 hammers before one works. Part of trading hammers. 2) In order to get a 'qualified' hammer, there must be a down trend. In other words, you will be trying to pick off the bottom of the down move. 3) Depending on the size of the hammer, the initial stop can be large if placed at the low of the hammer. 4) Entries are also important - once we see hammer, do we enter at the market the next day? Somewhere in the body of the hammer? Or only after price clears the high of the hammer? See this thread for more info. 5) And obviously how we exit is important as well. There's plenty of charts where in hindsight the hammer did pick off that bottom, but it may have taken days/weeks/months for it REALLY to deliver. I'm talking about significant move from the entry. Of course, any type of trail or whatever would be taken out more often than not.

I'm toying with using prophet.net as they have some scanners that may work for me... we'll see. Off their list here - http://www.prophet.net/explore/charttoppers.jsp - called 'Chart Toppers' here's a few that grabbed my attention: NYSE: PMI - High Volume Hammer (a total of 3, first one failed) CFC - Already had a high volume hammer, just noting here RDN - High Volume Hammer IMB - Already had a high volume hammer, just noting here NASDAQ: TGIC - Had high volume hammer, Nice bullish engulfing/spinning top, still playable That's about it for tonight. I'm not sure what prophet defines as 'chart toppers' but the common theme I found was volume. They have a number of other scanners and such, so this may work best for me. For now, I'm thinking high volume, % gainers/losers could be useful with the candles. Charts attached with brief annotations.

I thought we could try a thread listing some stocks to watch for the upcoming week, each week. I am trying to get back into watching some stocks and some that Tin has found ended up being some nice plays. I'll be upfront - I don't have much to contribute to this thread right now. I know... I was hoping to provide some feedback on stocks being mentioned until I figure out what type of stock trading/screener software to use. I'm dragging my feet on this as I'm not sure what I want or need. So, if you have any stocks/etf's that you are watching this week, feel free to list here and elaborate if you want. If not, just tickers will work too. Good trading swing traders!

I recall that as well, esp on the larger body candles. Not sure how strong or not it is as I really don't use it but maybe someone else can chime in.

Here's the ultra super, uber secret... Are YOU ready for it? :helloooo: Pay attention b/c here it comes.... :shocked: The secret to great candle trading is ....screen time. Just reading a book is not enough. Just watching a DVD is not enough. As with any good trading plan, practicing this in real-time with real analysis cannot be substituted with anything. There is no 'trick' in trading. Candlestick analysis may seem easy at first glance, but it does require work in front of charts. That's it. That's my trick!

Here it is with volume BF: So, I see 2 hammers @ support with high volume. I don't know how you might quantify high volume, but for me, that's plenty. Currently a risk-free trade by just slightly moving stop from initial entry. Entry based on first hammer is approx 1513.50. Current price is approx 1546.50. Current gain is 33 ES pts = 33 x $50 = $1650/contract. Trade was initiated Tue (10/23) at the open.

Dog, I like the idea of combining a restricted forum on yahoo or wherever and couple that with some youtube vid's. We could use the videos as a way to market the forum actually.... Good idea!! :thumbs up:

Honestly, it's all the same stuff just with a different spin. Different names or formations, but the same stuff. I like Nison's materials b/c they are the best in my opinion. The only other candle guy I used to frequent was http://www.candlestickforum.com The forum is not that active though and like I said, same stuff just different names.

Tin, After reading some of the threads here, my suggestion is this: 1) Set up a part on this forum or on yahoo for those that want to do this and will participate. MAKE THIS A CLOSED OR 'MEMBERS ONLY' FORUM. The reason is that these ideas and discussions need to be openly shared by those putting forth some effort and not have to worry about being criticized by lurkers. You know what I am getting at. Also, those not participating need to know they will be booted. 2) Get some rules in place for posting - most post at least one update per week, provide past/current/future possible plays, etc. 3) IF the interest is there and gets going, consider the weekly live call. The reason I am suggesting this route is to make your life easier and gauge the interest before you put too much time into this. If you look at these posts, there are many 'kinda' interested posts... I thought we would see more 'let's do this!' posts, so that is telling in my opinion. A members only forum is an easy step to test the waters out first.

Nick, I do not use pivots - intraday or swing. If you find that these levels are respected or provide some confluence, please share here as we are always looking for stronger S/R levels. As for SMA vs EMA, I mainly look at the 50 and 200 SMA on dailys mainly for some confluence with my S/R candle zones. In other words, I would prefer to have both of these line up together. And the reason for the 50 and 200 SMA is b/c those are common settings and ones that many traders look at.

The reference was made in this thread, but just earlier in the thread. You hit the nail on the head - VBC's smooth everything out. And if that works for you, as it does for me, it's invaluable to trading. Like you said, the overnight session and lunches are presented in quite a different light. As mentioned in the thread, I also love how these react around news announcements b/c it gives me the opportunity to get into a trade instead of waiting for a minute chart to form and then giving me a monstrous candle. I think there's some examples somewhere here, but it's worth looking at in my opinion for anyone reading this. Just open a minute chart and then open a VBC and see how things look to you!

Once again, how the metrics are being built is being overlooked. While many new businesses fail in year #1 (and are documented by the US small biz administration), how many are successful after year 1? How about year 2? and 3? And where is this information published by brokerage firms? If this was in fact true, why would they publish it as car said? Point is there's never been anything published from a verifiable, reputable source. The point is and is being missed here is that you cannot lump all traders into ONE statistic and call this unverifiable statistic as relevant! Especially when the cost of admission is literally $2500. You can open an account today for $2500. How can you possibly assume that the person that opens a $2500 account to 'see how it goes' is the same as a person that has a $50k account and has taken a business ownership position? That's like me saying that 95% of all traders that use VSA fail. Anyone care to dispute that? I have nothing to back that up, but sounds about right to me. Same thing here. No verifiable statistics to support this notion and even if this was in fact truth, you cannot lump all traders into ONE metric. Are there any other stat's lovers here? Anyone? While the numbers do not lie, how they are constructed can easily be... And if you do not analyze your numbers as well as what is spoon fed out there, I highly suggest you get off that train. Not only should you challenge all metrics and stats provided to you, you should have stats of your own personal trading. Again, something that separates the biz owner vs. the hopeful. I'm actually shocked a few here would just buy into this notion just b/c... a book writer trying to sell books said this? OK, great, prove it. A brokerage firm said this? First, why would they? Second, where is this info? As soon as some reading this learn to think outside the box and not buy into what the vendors are selling you, the sooner you can reach the next 'segment' of trading. And if you honestly believe this statistic, then the last thing on Earth you should do is TRADE. Why would you knowingly go into a biz where the success rate is so pathetically low? If you believe this 'fact' car, don't bother trading. You've already set yourself up with a perfect excuse for why you couldn't cut it. You can just tell people '98% fail and I was just part of that statistic' or 'the markets are obviously against me since 98% fail, so I am going to move onto something else' or 'if the markets weren't rigged against the little guy, I know I would make money'...

Lack of oversight or regulation is always a concern for me as well. Kinda like the forex market.

And has this fact EVER been substantiated by anyone other than vendors selling the grail? And has this fact EVER been broken down by years of trading, size of account, etc.? My point is that a $5000 account for a newbie will probably 'fail'. A $10,000 account for someone that thinks they can just wing it will probably 'fail'. There's a distinction to be made by those that treat this like a real business and those that just wing it. And if the 'well known fact' could be substantiated and broken down by types of traders, I think the numbers would tell the REAL story. But since this 'almost all traders fail' has been created by vendors and now a part of every day trading, most believe this unproven myth. Who knows, it could be that 98% of all traders (wannabes and biz owners) fail or it could be that those that actually treat this like a business fail 25% of the time. If there's anything out there suggesting otherwise, I have yet to see it. In my years trading, I've learned a few things and one of them is that numbers can easily be manipulated to suit your agenda. Unless YOU perform the analysis, or it's being done by an unbiased 3rd party, take it for what it's worth. It's like the drug trials that show a certain drug helps with weight loss and it turns out that the maker of the drug funded the multi-million dollar study. I wonder how that study will turn out... Or how about that many of the muscle magazines out there are actually run and operated by the supplement companies. I wonder why there's so many ads and articles about how great those supplements are... You see where this is going. When trading VENDORS have created this scare tactic of failure, it serves their agenda perfectly. The best example I have is that while I was a stockbroker, we had brokers broken down into 4 segments. And we tracked this way b/c IT MADE SENSE. Segment 1 was the newbies. We knew that at least 80% of them would fail within 12 mo's. As you can imagine, the further up the segment scale you went, the more likely you would make it as a broker. Actually, by segment 3 it was a matter of how much $$$ you would make. Trading is no different - every trader can be broken down into segments based on profitability. Let's say segment 1 is those that net out less than $50k per year. Well, I would guess that a good portion of Segment 1's fail. Is it fair to group segment 2's, 3's and 4's with the segment 1's? Of course not. But, as soon as you break traders out based on profitability (like a real business would), those numbers do not suit the vendors as much anymore. Vendors prey on new people and selling the grail. As long as they have you believe that most fail, that just helps them sell their product to you. As a new person to trading car, you need to realize this. It's similar to sports betting - I'm sure you've seen plenty of junk services out there selling the 'best picks' and you just sit there and laugh b/c you know what they are actually selling. And you see their marketing ploys as well - best picks in all of 2006, big weekend this weekend, etc. Again, preying on people like me that know nothing about betting, but interested in it. Trading is no different. This 'fact' that you quoted has never been proven by anyone. It's simply a marketing ploy that has worked beyond belief. It's like Nike - Just Do It. Trading - 98% fail, so buy my product that will make you part of the 2%!