brownsfan019

Ronin - always save your screenshots as PNG files. Much smaller than JPGs or most other formats.

We've all read stories about the impending mortgage crisis in the US due to ARM's readjusting upwards now and in the foreseeable future. I think I may have started a thread awhile back about it. Well, great news for all the irresponsible, debt-lovers in America - the TREASURY and the big banks are coming to the rescue... =========================================== http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/apee-debt.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin Paulson Foresees Deal on Mortgage Rates Article Tools Sponsored By By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: December 3, 2007 WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 (AP)  Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said today that he is confident there will soon be an agreement to help thousands of homeowners avoid mortgage defaults by temporarily freezing their interest rates. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. at a national housing conference in Washington on Monday. Mr. Paulson told a national housing conference that this effort involved a “pragmatic response†to current realities as the economy goes through the worst housing slump in more than two decades. The number of homeowners struggling to meet higher payments because their initial introductory rates are resetting is currently soaring. Mr. Paulson and other top Treasury officials have been holding talks with major players in the mortgage industry over the past several weeks to hammer out an agreement that would freeze the lower introductory rates to keep them from resetting to higher levels for a period of years. “We are working aggressively and quickly, utilizing available tools and creating new ones, to help financially responsible but struggling homeowners,†Mr. Paulson said in a speech to a national housing conference sponsored by the Office of Thrift Supervision. One of the outstanding issues is how long the freeze will last. Some government regulators are pushing for five to seven years but investors, who will see lower payments on the loans, are arguing for a shorter period of one to two years. An estimated two million subprime mortgages, loans offered to borrowers with spotty credit histories, are scheduled to reset to much higher levels by the end of 2008. Those resets will push the payment on a typical mortgage up by $350 per month, taking it from $1,200 currently to $1,550. Mr. Paulson said he believed the disagreements can be resolved without delay. Some expect the administration to unveil the completed deal later this week, but Mr. Paulson was not as specific in his remarks, saying only, “I am confident they will finalize these standards soon.†Mt. Paulson said he believed the mortgage industry would move to put the new program into place quickly and would also adopt benchmarks to measure progress going forward. “As a result, what was a fragmented, cumbersome process can be a coordinated effort which more quickly helps able homeowners,†he said. The new program is being aimed at homeowners who have steady incomes and relatively clean repayment histories who could afford the lower introductory mortgage rates but cannot afford the higher adjusted rate. The rate freeze is part of a three-pronged program the administration is pushing that also includes stepping up efforts to contact at-risk homeowners and encouraging creation of new programs that would embrace more affordable loans to homeowners who would like to refinance to mortgages with lower payments. Mr. Paulson said that the administration is putting forward a new proposal to allow state and local governments more temporary authority to broaden their tax-exempt bond programs to include mortgage refinancing. He also called on Congress to pass a number of pending bills that would address the housing crisis in such ways as expanding the availability of Federal Housing Administration insured loans and boosting government oversight of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The administration has come under criticism from Democrats who have complained that the proposals put forward so far have been too modest in light of the crisis facing the housing industry and the threat that the housing slump could lead to a full-blown recession.

The real question Bronx then is, who is in fact trading during ranges and making money? Since it's not these systems you see on the internet... I wonder... I think you have a very strong argument for developing a trading system that makes mega-money during ranges and takes minimal hits during trends since we KNOW that the markets range more than they trend... At least, that's the path I took in my trading career... You see all these wonderful systems and ideas that make money when it's trending, but what you see in real-time is A LOT of up and down, \/\/\/\/\ type moves. So if you KNOW this, why only trade trends or think that the trend is coming that day, at that particular time? The key is to not get run over during a strong trending move. If you can minimize losses during a strong trend and make some nice coin during ranges, I would argue that you would make MUCH more trading this way vs. a break-out / trend trader; at least on the index futures. Cannot comment on individual stocks. My personal trading plan profits largely during range bound movements, but has a hint of trend trading with it. Primary goal is to maximize return in range bound or 'choppy' conditions and secondary goal is to minimize losses during trends or with a little luck, come out ahead (usually not that much). I would like to nominate Bronx's post for post of the year. I don't think TL has a post of the year, but I would like to suggest we have a post of the year contest since the end of this year is soon and then I'd like to nominate Bronx's post for that honor. Why you might ask? B/c this thread has the potential to be the most thought provoking thread on TL. Ever. It could also fall to the waste side as Bronx and I debate the merits of the post. If you are reading this thread thinking it's a waste of time, you are not there in your trading yet to 'get it'. Hopefully you will. Just do not throw this post aside with the many others floating around TL.

Great observation. Perhaps this is why most of what is sold out there is junk... Food for thought.

Rock - the Wii is pretty cool. I wasn't sure about it and my buddy got one and it's a blast. I actually was pretty sore the day following our tennis match... Be careful how hard you swing that 'racket' at the beginning. You don't want tennis elbow! :rofl:

Mars - We can make that same argument on ANY futures contract. Just ask anyone that was trading the ES, YM, NQ, etc. on Sept 11, 2001. Drastic world events can punish (or make) you. By no means should anyone trade in anticipation of this, but the bottom line is - while your friend lost $6k, someone made $6k. Don't forget that other side of the coin. And if you are afraid of a worldly event effecting your trading, I suggest getting out of this biz now. Sooner or later, another bad incident will occur. Not if, but when... Looking past these unforeseen and unpredictable events, the CL was a great week of trading for myself. I honestly cannot believe the points I took home this week. Today was by far the worst day of the week and net pts was 61.63 after commissions and fees. At $10/tick, not a bad day of work, but the absolute worst day this week for me. In the end, I compare my results to the ES. 61.63 CL pts = 12.326 ES pts. Could I have made 12.326 ES pts today? Perhaps. But considering today was the worst day this week on the CL, the ES can't touch other days in terms of net points per contract. For me, the real question right now is - do I focus 100% on the CL where I can trade less in terms of number of contracts (and much lower commission costs as a result) or trade the ES, but in much higher increments. If my goal is to equal the returns in the ES that I am seeing in the CL, the ONLY way to do that consistently is to increase the size I am trading and only compare actual net dollars. Point being - I can trade less contracts on the CL, pay quite a bit less in commissions and make more money.... This would free up SO MUCH trading capital that I wouldn't know what to do with the excess cash! I can accomplish my income goals with less money tied up in a futures account that earns next to nothing when the money is sitting there... Some food for thought. Thanks for stopping by to the thread Mars and welcome to the board! I thought I was discussing the CL w/ myself.

Well, what to say. You just have to check this contract out for yourself to see if it suits you and your trading style. So far this week, every day has been a nice winner and to the point that it's challenging my ES gains and some days kicking it's butt! More often than not you will have to pay an extra fee to get this data turned on (free to Open ECry customers), but I would consider turning it on for December (wait until 12/3 to avoid data charges in Nov) and see what you think. I know we had/have some ER2 traders here and I think the CL blows the ER2 out of the water in terms of profit potential.

Walter - the timeframe(s) I use on the ES are a function of the volatility, but normally looking at 1, 3 and 5 minute charts along with a couple VBC's as well. Now, I don't use all of those at once, I just monitor each to see where setups are looking good and try to adjust my timeframes accordingly. If I had to pick one, I'd probably choose the 5 minute chart.

Well, that long worked nicely... +148 pts on the long mentioned above. You just cannot get that with ease on the ES on a per contract basis. I understand that if trading size you can, but dollar for dollar, the CL is a nice little contract to add to your arsenal. Or devote your entire trading day to it as I am seriously considering...

If you guys are looking for a contract that doesn't wait around and will let you know real quick if you are right or not, the CL is the place to be. So far this week the results are such that I can't even watch the ES much b/c I can't afford to miss a setup on the CL. I like quick and easy - either I am right or wrong and there's no waiting. If that suits you and your personality, the CL is one nice contract. So far, 3 trades this morning at +125 pts net and working on a long position currently. 125 = $1250/CONTRACT. I would need 25 ES pts on a per contract basis to mimic that. Seems to me that the risk/reward over here is far superior to that of any other futures contract, incl the big boys - ES, NQ, etc. Even though the CL could be viewed as more 'risky' b/c of the volatile moves, I would actually argue that it's less risky due to the phenomenal risk/reward ratios.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f17/site-down-recently-2902.html#post25506 I posted the same thing in the support section. Hopefully James is aware of the problem.

I disagree 100%. Just b/c the professionals are there does not mean this is the 'texas hold em of trading'. The texas hold em of trading is the ER2, or QM or Natural Gas... The ES is one of the most smooth indexes and I don't see how you could call that the texas hold em when you have the ER2 and it's erratic moves right there in front of you.

Blu - there's a couple other options here. I recently posted over at ET about this and didn't get much a response. Options to help minimize tick stop outs: 1) As you said, cancel and replace your order to get back the queue as long as it it is a LIMIT ORDER. If your stop is a market order, it won't matter where in the queue you may be as it will go to a market order as soon as price is hit. Most stop orders on DOM's are market orders by default. 2) Send a STOP LIMIT order or a LIMIT IF TOUCHED (LIT) order. The downside here is that price could go through your limits and you'd have to be quick on the DOM to exit. I would think on the thicker contracts like the ES and STOXX that this will be a minimal problem. 3) Send a stop based on volume traded. This is dependent on the DOM being used and offering this function. I have found that XTrader, Ninjia and ZeroLine trader offer this function. Open ECry currently does not but I have submitted it to the tech review dept.

BF - 1) Not sure what you mean by 'quite technical'. For me, as a candlestick trader, it works well. Not sure how other technicals would handle it. 2) You'll find the CL either in a strong trend or very range bound. The nice thing about those ranges is that we are not talking about 1-2 pts, like we can see on the ES. You can easily take 10+ pts on a 'range bound' CL day. I think this is why I am liking it more and more - even when range bound, it is providing profits whereas the ES is not. 3) It is traded on the CME through a Nymex partnership - http://www.nymex.com/CL_spec.aspx note - if trading on Open ECry, the symbol is GCL. Current contract is GCLF8 on the DOM.

EXACTLY. You get filled WITH the momentum vs. AGAINST it. Downside is stops are larger. I view it like this - with a regular resting limit order you are asking price to go against you and then snap back and go with you. Example - say you want to buy the ES at 1500 and price is at 1503. You want to go long, but price must go DOWN for you to go LONG. Not only does it need to go down, on the ES, it must go past your price level to ensure a fill. So price needs to travel to 1499.75 in our example for you to get long. Just seems counter-intuitive to me. Price must go against you in order to take on a position. That's hard for me to want to trade like that.

str - to my knowledge, it's not as easy to just make your own indicators in OEC. I could be wrong and it's a better question for their tech staff. I use pretty standard stuff, so it works for me. They have a ton of indicators built in though. You can see a lot of the software highlights here - http://www.openecry.com/software/softwarehighlights.cfm

4 months ago I started this thread on the CL. It was more of an FYI thread. Since then I've traded with limited time dedicated to the CL and recently a few things came to light as I began to monitor it more closely during the day... 1) This thing can move. Which is great if you are like me and like to see some pretty quick results - good or bad. 2) At $10/tick, it doesn't take much of these movements to make some nice profits. 3) With volume in the 100k - 300k range, it's fairly deep for a lesser known contract. The reason for this new thread is to bring your attention to this contract once again and at least take a look at it during the day while you are trading. Even though the ticks are less than the ES, I am finding the movements MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT than the ES. Allow me to explain... 1) Today my average win was 26.3 pts and average loss was 8.88 pts. The average win equates to $260/contract. In order to make $260/contract on the ES, I would need 5.2 pts. Here's the problem - AVERAGING 5.2 pts over the day on the ES is not an easy task in my opinion. For me, on the ES, I have many profitable trades that pop for 1-3 pts approximately. So to almost double that would be difficult to say the least. 2) As I said, this contract will tell you pretty quick if you are right or not. I like that. I hate getting into an ES trade that can take hours to develop. With the CL, it's fairly quick. 3) Others have said in the other thread that CL can respect technical analysis better and I would have to agree at this point. 4) It is independent of the indexes and operates on it's own. If you are looking for a contract to trade that has limited correlation to an index, this could be a great fit. 5) Even though commissions are higher, with a larger profit target more achievable here vs. the ES, I don't consider the commissions to be a problem. Also, margins will normally be higher than $500 like the ES. Due to the volatility brokers go into protection mode. Just be aware of what your broker will charge for intraday margins before getting into a trade. It's worth a look, esp if you have free data through your broker like Open ECry offers. Had it not been for this free access, I probably wouldn't have given it a look. Before running out and trading the CL, make sure to watch it for a few days/weeks so you can really see it operates. It can get jumpy and is not for the weak of heart.

Dog - it's pretty much the ONLY way I enter on an intraday basis. Reasons: 1) Guaranteed to filter out some losing trades (esp how I enter with candlesticks). 2) Guaranteed to get into every winning trade. As soon as I realized that, the decision was easy on how to enter. Of course, your system must accommodate buying above or selling below the current price.

Walter, You'll find the ES is the 'slow and steady' contract vs. the ER2. You won't find as many wild whipsaws and spikes as you might with the ER2 and maybe even the YM. I think it's a function of the massive liquidity and all the pro's there - humans and computers. It's much too efficient to see wild, random spikes consistently. Of course, trading size is not an issue either which is also attractive. So if you are after an index contract that is less 'spikey' the ES is a good option and probably the best one. As a scalper, you can easily load up on the number of contracts trading w/o worrying about setting off any red flags or anything. One note - when you watch the contract and esp in simulation, assume in order for you to exit a position that price must trade THROUGH your price level and hit the next level to get filled. Example - if you are trying to exit a winner at 1500, price will need to touch 1500.25 in order for you to safely assume you get your exit price. NEVER assume that if price touched your level that you are out. Unless it's an MIT order of course.

James, Are you aware of the site having database issues recently? Seems like it's happening more often again, at least on my end. I think we had some connection issues during the upgrades and such, but it's recurring again. FYI.

Check out OpenECry as well in the mix. Not sure if it has everything you need, but check them out as commissions are competitive along with a strong platform that is free to customers.

Abe, I assume that the jump to forex is saying that the jump to futures didn't go as planned. I realize each market is it's own animal and perhaps trading forex will work better for you, but proceed with caution. It looks like you are looking for leverage and that alone is not reason enough considering how much leverage is available in futures. My point is that this is a classic newbie move - try market #1 and when that doesn't work b/c you have not put in enough time and energy, move to market #2 b/c you found a chart or two that just provided thousands in profits. Just proceed with caution Abe as I would argue that Forex is even HARDER to trade than futures since your broker can be working AGAINST YOU. The 'no commission' marketing BS is just that - BS. If you really like currencies, there's a few on the CME that trade, in particular the EC/6E that is plenty liquid for most traders.

The settings for tick chart or volume based chart are dependent on YOU and YOUR preferences. Smaller number = quicker prints. YOUR choice. There's no right answer here.

What a push up there, back above that 1440 level AGAIN. See where we close, but the bulls are defending this area once again. We got below 1440 @ 12:30pm EST and at 3:30pm the bulls ran it back up, with all those shorts wondering what just happened. Point is that make sure you let the charts talk to you. The 1440 level has stuck out like a sore thumb and once again it appears it may hold or at least provide a strong area of fighting.

Glad someone is Tin!!! :thumbs up: