brownsfan019

Here's a setup from today on the 1 minute, ES chart: So far, that called the high of the day. While that is neat in hindsight, no way can you go into a trade expecting to pick off the HOD and LOD each and every time.

After watching the webinar from Joel and reading a few of these VSA threads, I thought I'd get a candlestick and volume thread going. Now, I should start by saying this - my use of volume is about as basic as it comes. We are not talking about a huge in-depth analysis as seen in the VSA thread. I will try to get some screenshots up in a bit, but the basic premise is simple - using candlesticks as the PRIMARY trade reasoning and then take the trade if volume CONFIRMS (as a 2ndary) that trade idea. In other words, instead of just taking any random hammer, take a hammer that has much higher volume than seen elsewhere. The results should be less trades (vs. just taking a candle pattern), but that's ok if it weeds out some losers. We can discuss and open up to any timeframe as well. It's kinda funny how your trading career can go sometimes - when I first got into trading, I was heavily into volume reading. So much so that it paralyzed my decision making. So I slowly used it less and less. After listening to Joel, a few things clicked and it's interesting how after years of experience, things can look differently. Again, the idea is simple - candle pattern + good volume = good setup. You'll soon find out that my definition of 'good' volume may be different than the VSA'ers, hence the reason for a separate thread. I did not want to get into a theoretical debate about whether the volume in question is acceptable or not.

Thanks Mr Ed, I appreciate those links! Didn't even know James had that nice section already here!

Keep it cool in here boys.

For those that use VSA in your trading, would you mind posting over here - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/recommended-resources-3424.html#post29891 Just looking for some ideas on VSA resources.

I guess after Joel's presentation, I got a little more interested in the VSA thing. It appears that it could compliment my candlestick trading (at least at this point). I was hoping our seasoned VSA'ers could post links to books, blogs, websites, etc. that deal with VSA. As someone looking in, VSA can be intimidating at first, so any resources would be welcomed. Thanks!

I think shep is in a tough spot. As a student of Joel, he may be under some non-disclosure restrictions and/or does not want to detract from Joel's business. I realize we all want things disclosed in the forum, but we also have to respect shep if he cannot provide specific details. I would suggest taking the free trial that Joel offers to show his trading in a live environment. If anyone does, provide a review here for others: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f92/reviews-of-www-tradingrealization-biz-with-3422.html

Saw this article in the recent Futures Mag and thought I'd post here for anyone interested in testing this basic system out... LINK TO ARTICLE The U.S. Treasury futures is an often overlooked market. Most traders – novice and professional alike – look at the grinding nature of the trade and assume there is no trade there. In fact, the bonds are a tremendous trade, and at $31.25 per tick give you a lot of bang for your buck. But the best thing about the bonds is that they respond — and have responded for more than 20 years — to specific setups that will allow the novice trader to begin the path to profitability while trading without emotion; and provide the professional trader with more tools to use to win in the markets. One successful set-up is called “the first-hour trade.” This trade is perfect for both the part-time trader who has a full-time career and the professional trader who trades the entire trading day. The bond market opens in the pit at 7:20 a.m. CST. Wait until 8:20 a.m. CST and then record the pit high and the pit low for the first hour. The pit trade is a much better indicator of true price action (most charting packages give you the ability to filter your charts to pit only, electronic only or combined). If the range for the first hour is 13 ticks or less, look for a breakout trade that will trigger either one tick above or one tick below the first hour’s range. The target for the trade is to double the first hour’s range. In “One-hour breakout,” note that the bond market’s first hour range was 116-12 to 116-18. Once that range is set up, put in entry stops to buy at 116-19 or sell at 116-11. On Nov. 23, you didn’t have to wait long for the market to make your decision; at 8:30, the bond market went 18-bid and traded up to 20 – allowing you to get filled on your entry stop at 19. As soon as you are filled, immediately place your exit orders in the order book at the target price: 116-24 (A six-tick first hour range projects to a six tick extension; 116-18 + 6/32 = 116-24). The setup says the market should print the target price – not necessarily trade it - so you want to get your exit orders in fast so you are first in the queue. Common questions about this setup are: 1. “Do we need to wait a few ticks after the breakout so we know it is not a false breakout?” No. Enter the trade at the breakout price, which is one tick above/below the first hour range. This way you can earn positive slippage if it retreats. 2. “What if the breakout doesn’t happen for a few hours?” As long as the trade can be expected to complete before the 2 p.m. pit close, it does not matter when the breakout occurs. 3. “Where is my stop?” This question can only be answered by the trader. Typically T-bonds require at least a three-tick stop – but no more than a five-tick stop. Place a stop you are comfortable with, and let the trade play itself out. In entering this trade it is helpful to try and time your entry. In the above example, we are supposed to buy 19s. When the market is 18-bid/19-offer, pay closer attention, but do not buy when it is still 19-offer. When the market goes 19-bid you still do not have to bite, but do not miss the 20s. What dynamic you are exploiting is the grinding nature of the bond market that most traders dismiss as “poor trade.” The bonds do chop and grind, but this will inevitably mean they’ll come back 19-offer and when they go bid the second time and begin to fill in some bid volume (300- 400), join the bid. I t is an affective way to trade but if you can’t spend seven hours a day in front of your screen yo u can still use this strategy. A part-time trader can check the market at 8:20 a.m., place a stop order to initiate a position at the breakout price, place an OCO (one cancels other) stop/exit order – and turn off the computer. This is only one of many useful setups in the T-bond market. While the pros reading this will have another trade to put on, the new traders must also realize the hidden benefit to trading setups like this: They give you entry prices and targets and remove your emotions from the trade. Jack Broz trades bonds and mini-Dow from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade where he has been a member since 1996. He can be reached at tttdow@themarlinletter.com AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK BEFORE PLACING ANY REAL MONEY AT RISK. I CANNOT VOUCH FOR THIS SYSTEM, JUST POSTING FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES.

Well done there Eagle. You deserve at least a Silver medal by now. Side note - I wonder how long James keeps this useless thread going. Seriously, what possible purpose is this now serving? I have plenty of PM's from other members that see what a fraud this journal is. There is no purpose for this being here since it looks like Lance is posting on other sites as well... fxstreet... tradingeducators.com... But he prefers to come here and other sites with useless 'journals'. I'm still waiting for the punchline here... What exactly is the purpose of this journal... If this site is about helping others, what help does this journal provide to anyone? Anyone that actually believes this is real is in for a real shock when they try to trade with real money, in real time. Ronin here has yet to grasp that concept. I'm not sold that it's just here for fun so Ronin can pretend he knows how to trade. There's a catch coming sooner or later...

Thanks for the updates guys, good stuff! Now that Open ECry also supports constant volume charts, I am content with using their charts.

What a freakin terrible exit on this trade Ronin. Seriously, what are you thinking? You could have covered at the LOD TODAY!!! Geeze, what an amateur.

Wow, incredible trade Ronin! Just flat out unbelievable. You ALWAYS seem to know when you get out for +2 and when to get out for +25! That hindsight magic ball of yours is ALWAYS right on! I really can't believe someone that is making millions by the day would waste his time posting these trades on an anonymous message board... Something doesn't quite add up here...

So let me understand... You said: And then said: So your 'guarantee' was good for a whole five points? A 5 point trade is a great trade, no doubt. But is that the guarantee you were providing to the good folks here? Or is there more downside coming, even though you are no longer in the trade? Or do we just wait till Wed morning and then you can claim that the low of Mon/Tue was the actual exit point? Fake money trading just awesome. Ever see that new IBM commercial: I see a similarity here with Ronin's journal - Ronin, the avatar, is awesome at after the fact trading and making simulation money, just like our IBM friend here. So much so that since he's been here, we've gotten TWO guarantees already! (Never mind that the first one did not work even though he thought it did twice). So who knows if the guarantee is done or not... Ronin sure doesn't...

Here are the questions in case you missed them. :thumbs up:

Ronin, I do NOT make calls like you do here. I am not a 'swing for the fences' trader as you are sometimes. Sometimes you nail that 30 pt move and when need be, you take 2 pts. I'm just simply not that talented to be able to always time the highs and lows as you do here in hindsight. You conveniently ignored my previous post, yet reference me here so you are obviously reading what I write. Please answer questions above if you want to start calling people out. I want to make sure I make money on this guarantee of yours again, but kind of need SPECIFICS. You know, the things you seem to forget about until after the fact. I just would like to know how this guarantee of yours works so we can all track the progress of it. There's a good chance you'll be right, but in order to validate your analysis we would actually need some specific numbers here. IN CASE THAT'S NOT CLEAR - SIMPLY SAYING 'THE MARKET IS GOING DOWN BY TUESDAY' DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING TO A REAL TRADER. Anyone that ACTUALLY TRADES REAL MONEY understands how weak and silly that kind of guarantee is. OAC decided to voice his opinion as well b/c it's so easy to see through this fantasy journal.

What a great game!

I have yet to find a site that does NOT take US players. Every major one appears to take US players, along with the 'smaller' sites. As for the 'under the radar' sites, I am talking about the sports betting sites that attract the casual poker player. Bodog and sportsbook have plenty of games, so filling a table of 9 or 10 is not an issue since the entire world has access to the sites. The nice thing about poker edge is you can add-on 'poker lobby' which scours the sites they support (over 100) looking for loose games. And then you can hop right over there to the loose games. So far the programs and software out there are pretty interesting if nothing else. To be able to know right away if your opponent (who you've never played before) defends his blind, likes to limp in, etc. is just incredible.

As long as this is turned off, I'm cool with it. Maybe give the member the option to turn it on.

James - I never received any newsletter. How can I get on the list? I also sent an email in and plan to attend. No confirmation email received, not sure if we should get one.

Is there anything more to this guarantee Ronin besides it is 'going down'? For example: 1) "Going down" from where, what levels? From the time you posted or the Mon/Tue highs? 2) How much is it "going down"? Is this another 100 pt prediction or 2 pts? 3) As OAC said, how much heat will you take on this guarantee before bailing on it? Or is this just a stay in till eventually the call being right? Give us some details brother or this guarantee just continues the fake world of Ronin trading.

Oh man.... This just gets better.

PP - I am familiar with all the main sites. I've actually been reading that it's best to STAY AWAY from these as they attract the real sharks. One thing nice about Poker that you do not see in trading is that certain 'exchanges' exist and certain 'exchanges' attract certain players. For example, I've read that bodog.com is a great site to play poker b/c it's mainly a sports betting site and you find more loose play here vs. Full Tilt or Pokerstars. I'm also amazed at the software out there to help your play. I am looking at: http://www.poker-edge.com Just have to watch the demo to see what this thing is capable of. Imagine trading against your opponent when you already know how likely it is that your opponent will beat you... It's pretty amazing actually. Anyone know of any good poker blogs? I like reading the blogs. I'm thinking of starting a poker one.

James - my email box is full of stuff from TL - over THREE HUNDRED emails. Most are "New Linkback Post" WTF is that?

So my infatuation with online poker playing is growing the point of opening a live money account(s) here soon. Just curious what poker websites are some of your fave's if you are a poker player. I hope James will chime in since he's been there and done that. It's pretty amazing all the poker rooms and software that is out there to help your playing. There's really a lot of similarities with online poker playing and trading. I'm hoping that will translate into a possible little hobby for me that can make some money as well. Nothing big in the beginning, just small stakes for me. If you have any poker sites - where to play, blogs, software, etc. - please post here as I would like to see what's out there. Thanks!

Lug - is it ok for the normal person to download the 'RC' of SP1? I'm not looking for a beta or anything like that, so not sure if I should be downloading RC or not. Thanks.