forrestang

Jeez, that was rough.

I must have gotten your loot today :rofl:

That sounds almost EXACTLY like the story I posted a while back in this thread.

Nice thread and analysis.

Yeah, I'm sure you[Thales] know there will always be $h*(-bags out there that love to stir the pot. So I say in a Tony Soprano type tone, "Fa-get about it..." There is still money to be made and lessons to be learned.... so back to the regularly scheduled programming, let's continue to see some REAL-TIME trades that always trump the 100% success rate of hindsight trades!!! I would also like to put in a request for some futures, maybe some NQ looks? Question from today...... if looking at the NQ today early morning on the 5 or 15 minute chart, is there any reason this short was a bad idea? I can see in hindsight why the Long may have been a better choice..... given the solid blue as a prior area where price attempted to BO, and even the minor Support on the dotted blue. 5 min chart just showing a bit more detail.

Oh how it's awesome when you talk about the futures! Currencies just get all the attention these days. I didn't see the ES that way this morning. I actually entered an NQ short this morning. But I saw a short in ES if anything below 17.50. In hindsight I am seeing the long though. I think I just had a bad read today.

Two possibilities maybe.

I agree with Tams and think this could be a nice thread. You should post some pictures with brief explanations that might spur discussion, instead of the redirect to another site.

I am not trading any of this either. But I do understand the simplicity of it. And whether one is successful or not will simply come down to trade/money management. I'm not saying this about any particular person, but internet traders real or fake don't bother me, because I just assume EVERYONE is a fraud and has ulterior motives until I see otherwise(live trading). Nothing personal towards any one person, just put off a bit by the online trading community I suppose. So seeing people talk about trading systems, or merchants that claim to sell something doesn't bother me anymore, cause I realized that very few people are out to help others, so I just don't care who claims to do this or that anymore. It has removed a great deal of stress from my perception of people. Anyways I digress..... 1.) I agree with you, which is why I said there is a lot of vagueness there. 2.) The methodology is simple. Statistically he believes that price is within the daily low by 20 pips, it will reverse from that point by some movement. It is jsut a way to 'pick a spot' and trade through it. At some point price will stop and reverse, it has to. Until that point it just goes down..... so on big down days you will probably lose, depending on how you manage the trade. 3.) You don't know if the LOD print is there. But that's no different that ANYTHING else. We never know what price is going to do. So in this case you're just playing the probabilities. There are filters you can apply if you'd wish. 4.)When I say trade in one direction, I mean 100% of the time. Not for the day, or the week, but ALL THE TIME. If you want to trade this method, you are always either long or short. Pick one and stick with it. This method is obviously geared for simplicity. 5.) I agree, this thread is vague. I think the methodology is simple enough though and doesnt need much explanation, unless someone is going to discuss trade management, i.e. when to take profits, when to exit etc. That's what is missing. But I suppose that's hard to teach someone. And that's what its all about, is how you manage a trade, no matter what the methodology.

TRO is sometimes vague, maybe I can help...... 1. High or low of the bar is just that, the 'high' or 'low' of the bar. 2. Use a 15min chart, if you want less trade on an hour chart. 3. Explanations are always vague. The explanations though are rather simple. And with all the TRO indicators, he does tell you EXACLTY what they are doing. TRO just puts in cute little graphical representations that make people think it's something special, like it looks like that little square is the zone that is 20 pips within the day's High and the days low. He's also added a counter to tell you how many pips off the low price has come each time it falls down there. If you wanted to trade this way, you don't even need the indicator. Just wait for price to get within 20 pips of the days low, wait till you see a bar that has a close greater than it's open(an up bar), note the highest price of the bar. Enter on a buy stop right above that bar. And ONLY trade in one direction, ALL OF THE TIME. Set a daily goal and do not trade all day. The point is to compound your account by a % each day. Rather simple strategy right? The stop loss is posted. Now..... trade management is the MOST IMPORTANT PART. This is something TRO DOES NOT explain. But for the most part, most people don't explain how to manage the trade or money. So this is something you'll have to figure out. Possible suggestions: -Go for a fixed target maybe to give a favorable r:r -Trail stop on bar lows -exit on two reversal bars -target a prior resistance point You'll be stopped out from time to time of course.

I agree with you. I think PA over the break has been EXCELLENT!!!! At least on the ES and NQ which is what I watch daily.

This phenomenon was referred to in that AB thread as '3 pushes' up, or referred to as a wedge, similar to the way you have described it in this thread. Actually, there have been many similarities thus far..... and not just that thread but in many places, in a lot of places in observing various market activity. Thales, you are definitely an UN-original trader. ---question----- Of course with my hindsight goggles on....Wouldn't it make sense to re number the second push up like in the attached picture with the red numbers? It seems like that first push, even though it was the first move in the correction was really nothing? Or do I have this wrong?

I was just messing around of course...... what are your thoughts on the above picture in looking for targets?

You obviously have a crystal ball you are not telling us about.

As mentioned, it's always an option to attempt to target the next level of S/R for anticipated areas of extension. But if you wanted to be able to more so mechanize your targets for trading to simplify things, at least at the onset of a path to consistency, does the following example makes sense? The targets are essentially based on the swings price made on its way to your entry, shown by the black lines. This is just an ES example from earlier this morning. The red double arrow is the thrust or sharp move up. The orange double arrow is the depth of the swing into the swing. The blue double arrow is that last move to produce the LH that got you into the trade and also a logical stop. I have project each arrow downwards past the BO point. Are any of these targets more sensible than others in an attempt to mechanize where you'd target your extension to move?

----------------- Hey, i traded that!

As you seem to imply above, I suppose everyone's problems are going to be different. I think my problems for sure are money management. Particularly how many lots to divide a trade into, when and where to set targets and ISLs. Of course I have general ideas via nat. swing points, but not set in stone.... I.e. whether or not to exit all at once etc... things like that. When to pull the 'rip cord' early vs. letting my stop getting hit, is price cooperating etc. Things like that. This might be more in the category of Trade Management instead of Money Management? Guess it depends on whos vocabulary we're referring to, but my description of what I still struggle with should be explanatory. Recognizing things definitely is easier than anything I've outlined above.

Surely it can't be so simple? BTW I say that partially in jest. Why do you think so many of us aspiring traders have a problem with this? Trouble identifying the price doing the types of things outlined in this thread? Money management? Inability to see the bigger picture? Lack of trust that the methodology works? Not spending enough time working and observing this happening?

Just for further discussion Rigel, I think that essentially was the point of my initial post in this thread. It doesn't really make any sense to question or dig into the genuineness of any one person. We see dozens upon dozens of posts about different methodologies or systems. Most posting being in hindsight. We can all just simply treat the internet like a grocery store and take what we want and leave what we don't. As mentioned by even TRO, that "it's not what you trade but how you trade it." This statement makes total sense. There is NO holy grail, and there is NO one way to trade the markets. Even if an internet person doesn't even really trade, they may be able to help someone else. We never really know unless we observe someone trading live for a period of time. And nobody really does that, so we should just read and accept what we want, and ignore everything else.

That sounds like a novel idea, too bad such a thing doesn't exist yet:roll eyes:

When dealing with trading online, we just never know who is or who isn't what they claim. No way to really know. Why even bother? Seems the only way to know for sure is to be able to observe someone trading live for a period of time. And how many people do we see that either post trades prior to the signal, or put it out there real time in a chat of some sort? Very few. After all, anyone can post dozens of dead charts with 'alleged' trades and come up with all types of hindsight reasons for certain trades, or a trading methodology. We just never know with the internet and all:confused:

Just out of curiosity, has anyone who has not attained the level of profitability they would like (i.e. still learning), actually observed a so-called profitable trader trade? And by that I mean maybe having the opportunity to observe someone trade live for at least a month, making many trades over and over?

Thales or anyone else for that matter that might have an opinion on money management. This question is mainly about the volatility we see on say the NQ or ES. I have been reading about the idea of liquidating a THIRD to HALF portion of your contracts to cover costs and fees, and then move remaining to BE after covering fees. Then if trading in 2 lots, kill the other HALF as your discretionary runner. If trading in 3 lots, kill 1/3 at about twice the fee cost, and the final 1/3 as your discretionary runner. The idea was that you'd usually at least cover fees. Maybe 7 of 10 times you cover costs and take a BE stop. Then maybe once or twice you get an explosive move. Every once and a while hit your P2 which is small profits, and every once in a while you'd hit that big runner. Supposedly this is how your account has not choice but to grow. Example using a round $5.00 all inclusive fee cost per contract: 3 Contracts x $5 = $15.00 P1 = +3 tics P2 = +6 tics (stop @ BE once P1 is hit) P3 = Discretionary exit (stop @ BE once P1 is hit) My questions are essentially how would you manage your ISL and is this even feasible? If your stop rests beyond a swing point, NQ for example, this is usually about 2-2.25 points. So if you're stopped out at a swing point for 2 points, that's a cumulative 24 tics on 3 contracts, get where I'm going with this? So is this type of money management even feasible?

I am hitting the 'exit market' button now when price gets right near, touches, or comes within a tic and begins to back off. I say this if price is making a strong impulse move to my target and is close to letting me out all in one shot. This is obviously subjective and a bit of something that might take some getting used to, but the situation you described is sooooooooooo frustrating to watch happen.

Stop at BE, been in this for a while and am pulling the 'cord.' And I am sure I will now be stopped.