forrestang

My thoughts for tommorrow.

I will look over those posts again. With the idea of how to observe the 'natural' swings of the markets, big,small and intermediate...... Can you throw a picture up of S/R and why you picked them as levels? Sometimes it's obvious, but some of them I cannot see at times. I think with the question Morgan asked in the other thread with certain breakouts and why certain were not taken, it was because they were of different move sizes. These swings obviously effect how one marks S/R. Thanks, Forrest

Ignore the following post, no need to reply as I am unsure how to even phrase the question? But sometimes I don't get what's going on?

A few questions related to understanding and using the TQ (TICKQ)...... QUESTION 1: First, on what a TD (TickQ) Divergence is? I understand that everything must be taken in bigger picture context, and where it occurs, but for the purpose of this question, just consider not observing S/R for right now. I see that the divergence occurs in the sense when we compare say two points in price to two points in TQ. Is a divergence ever considered useful when say the TQ is going one direction and leaves price going the other? This picture is from the blog, and might be an example of where the divergence doesn't just jump out at you. Where it was stated that "....this is not the best example of a tradeable TD....since there was no retest at 1106" In the picture below, I guess this is two ways to see a "possible" divergence when the classic type doesn't occur when price at leasts tests the same area and makes it easier to observe. Is this a reasonable way to look at it? QUESTION 2: Is the 1 minute tic of any use? I only ask as my charts cannot display the TQ on a 1 tic chart, or any sub-1minute charts. Here is an example of what occured during that big trade that occured on the 21st around 1:00EST. It seems there are several that occur once price got towards resistance. I realize all must be taken in context, and this is just a tool for one to gain some clarity perhaps. But here is the chart is there anything of use on it with regard to the TQ?:

Ok, I see what you are trading now. Trading S/R is something I've looked into in the past(as seen in some of the screenshots I posted in that Brooks Thread), but could never get the handle on it. So this time as I'm looking into it luckily I'm not starting completely from scratch. But It's still a relatively new concept to me. I did not see Thales's post. I don't get around much I think;) I will take a look for it. Forrest -----EDIT----- I'm in the thread, where should I start?

Can you describe what you're trading? Was that green line the open of yesterday, and you were shorting the breakout once price had broken through it?

Thanks for the above! It's good to know that sometimes things just aren't clear. With these current ranges or levels we're looking at now, would you consider either side of this current zone well defined? I'm just looking at the places in which price touches. I'm sure you can find more on a different time frame, but when we don't have as many 'touches' of support, would you say that conditions aren't as clear to define S/R? And I really can't see any? Maybe this chart illustrates what I'm asking? Prior to today's open there really seemed to be no place where price just respected too much. Are these levels here as they are the best that price has to offer as of right now? For the novice, would it be best to just stand aside when S/R doesn't fall into place?

I have a question, and it is pretty basic. So basic I'm sure it's answered somewhere here, and may or may not be obvious? But the question is, when planning your day, what do you do when things just don't make sense in terms of plotting your S/R? I experience this from time to time, I am fairly new at trying to exploit this dynamic of the market (trading mainly with S/R and not much else). There are times when I am planning my day the night before, and things just..... COME TOGETHER. I.e. it just makes sense..... One can say, "Oh, I see this area.... the areas are clearly defined.... we have consolidation here.... we have a trend there... clearly there is Resistance here above!" But there are times that things don't really make any sense. When I feel like the market is throwing too much information at me with regards to where one can expect price to react one way or the other. Often times when this happens, I find myself having so many areas on my chart that it begins to resemble a tic chart, with something occuring at almost every price point, which then becomes cumbersome to me making a decision. So I will usually delete all annotations and start over. This sometimes helps, other times not. I enjoy the idea of being able to almost fully plan what I will do the day prior once price gets to a certain place, and trying to trade according to what price does once it gets there. I guess this is not a purely technical question that I am asking, as there is plenty of info in this particular section and many others. I don't know if it's just lack of experience, a physio-logical chemical brain fart of some sort due to lack of proper caloric intake for the day, or if there is really nothing there that is clear? Like tonight here is what I am looking at, which might not be the best example? I usually have plenty of things to write on my charts, but tonight might be one of those 'brain fart' nights:

If I recall, a friend of mine had a live demo account with TOS for like 6 months before he ever funded the account.

Has anyone figured out how to quantify what the 'best trades' are each day? By that I don't mean setup 1 vs. setup 2 or something, just if you were trying to explain to someone to pick the very best trades throughout the day, how would you do it? I mean wether it be something having to do with how we opened, or using a S/R level somewhere, or whatever criteria you wish?

Final: Profit factor on day nothing to write home about. And looking at it and where S/R is, these entries are just God Awful. That post about entries is needed!!! A note on the anchor chart. The upper region of rectangle, or resistance was adjusted after the first failed long.

Update 5: This is it, we'll see how it plays out, conservative targets in place, will move stop when available. Seems this entry is too high, close to the midpoint of this range. But whatever. Update 6: Update 7: 1st target hit. I th ink right now I would be thinking about pulling all out, or at very least TIGHTLY trailing the rest. We're approaching DTL in what I am just now realizing is a downward trending day, I am a dufus! But for the sake of the thread, will leave it alone, stop at BE.

Update 4: Looking for BO.

Was going to post a right edge but entered and stopped so fast I couldn't get it up here. Anyways, was playing the level @ 1539.75, it looks as though this level has been violated, and price is hanging out in the middle of nowhere. Entered 1540.50, stopped 1538.75. Will continue to look. Update 1: Broke through 1539.75, next level to test is 1528 area. Update 2: Price broke through the 1539.75 level, towards the 1527 area. Price did not quite make it down that far, and is now retracing back upwards to 1539 area. Posting a small thumbnail just for depiction of what I'm seeing. Maybe this will be insight into the thought process trying to view the larger picture of what's going on? Putting this together into something tangible is a whole nutha' issue. Note: vertical line is about where we opened. Update 3: Still watching this area. Either this area I have isn't valid, I have recognized it wrong, or it's just one of those areas, but price either isn't respecting it, or this area is just not optimal for trading? I will stop until price moves away from here, i would probably get bleed to death trying.

Being stopped happens, doesn't mean the next trade will turn out the same way. I'm sure you already knwo this and I am being redundant. I hope you continue to post your right edge reads as we'll all get something out of it. From my experience, it's hard to even admit I was wrong to myself, let alone posting a right edge read for dozens to see that I was wrong as well. I'm sure this is something that will dissapate over time as one gains confidence in the things they see on their screen.

Thales, Do you think you can do a pre-day analysis? I'm not sure how you do it, or if you can get to it today. I would suggest NQ, but I suppose any instrument would do fine? I'm just wondering if you prepare for things in a similiar fashion as I do, i.e. picking out S/R, or something else? And actually, if anyone does anything simiiliar posting it would be great!! Forrest

Yo Thales, Honestly I was keying mainly on that 1520 level, I hadn't even noticed that we kept hitting the High of Friday. I was wondering WHY price wouldn't go to the bottom of the zone and tag 1520. I really wasn't interested in anything until we at least tested the 1520. I was thinking that 1539 area did gains some significance today, since it wa tested quite a few times today it seems. I almost entered on a breakout today about 15 minutes before the close, but realized I wouldn't get any follow through with such short time left. Right now, I feel like I dont' have a good solid way to enter. About Globex and regular sessions, I used to have the regular session HLC on there, but now I am simply pulling levels off the 24 hour session. Thanks for asking! On another notes just about today's session, the NQ seemed to not behave the way I think it should for good trades? Did anyone else get this feeling? It seems like it wanted to break that 1539 level, but couldn't. And price seemd to just chop around all day?

This thread is seriously long, and slightly bloated now. But if you take a weekend to read it, it would probably make your reading through the book 100x easier. Watch those videos people posted too, it will help I promise.

Thanks for the insight into the S/R levels fellas. As of right now, NQ price is hovering right at 1534. So the level you see on my chart is tentative as this may change. It looks like the 1520 level is more important than ever. Leading up to Friday's session, it was only a swing point, but by the end of the cash session, it seems to have shown it's relevance. This 1520 was tested on Thursday. During Friday, it was tested twice before being broken, then 'flipped' and becoming support. We've made a push up to 1536 during the overnight as of right now. The only thing above it is a potential level at 1550. 1536 might become a good potential target for a long trade if price sets up that way. PLAN FOR TOMMORROW: The 1520 Level is key. If price drops to 1520, and price action dictates, a potential long from 1520 with targets to 1536 and 1550 might be in order. The area between 1510 - 1520 is somewhat noisy. Seems as if a lot of activity is represented in this area? So I am thinking 1520 is a strong area of support. If price decides to spend time in this area, I probably won't touch it? Is this read of this zone reasonable, or am I missing something? If price goes below the 1510 area, and price action dictates, a short from that area towards 1500 AND 1492 seems reasonable (1500 is there it's just not on my charts). The above comments ARE NOT predictions, only observations of what my thinking will be should price reach certain areas and HOW it reacts in those areas.

So looking back on the prior week, looking at some situations here..... This 1st post will be about S/R, the next will focus on the entries relevant to trading those levels. ANY and ALL comments are appreciated, or if anyone has examples of something they saw related to observing support and resistance, please post! You'll notice the great many questions marks behind what seem to be statements as this is still coming together and your input is greatly appreciated. So let's look first at the relevant S/R leading up to Friday's session. Traditionally, I have looked at S/R as areas where price was tested in either direction several times.....But more so focus on areas where price was rejected, i.e. Major Swing Points. I attribute this to it being very visual. Like when you see price hit an area, then reverse for 30 points, to me it just stands out. But I am reading (mainly in DB's work), that rejection isn't what's most important, it is areas in which the most trades take place, like when S/R is tested many times. This makes sense as, these are likely areas where speculators are most interested? Areas of defense maybe if you will? The chart below is mainly me looking at what I deem major 'SWING POINTS.' Now, there willl obviously be overlap of levels from both 'Major Swing Points' AND 'Areas where levels where molested several times if you will', :haha: So here is the same chart, but focusing on areas only where price was tested several times: OK, so what are the differences between the two? Here is a side by side comparison of what's going on: So how does this relate to Friday? Well this might be purely a handpicked situation, and purely academic, and it is of course an observation made in hindsight, but i think this may have shaped the entry a bit differently. Notice the level I had from the 'swing' chart was 1520. I still think this was an important level, as even AFTER the trading session started, price seemed to know this level was there. So 1520 was the level that I anticipated would be the best shot at a good long. And it still wasn't a bad trade, although the entry was a bit late, and could have been managed better..... But the area it seems we really wanted to be focusing on was 1509.50. And once price breached this area, and then pulled back, it was straight up from there: Again, this is in hindsight, but it was something I've been thinking about all weekend :missy: and i hope what I'm trying to convey is clear? I will make another post simply dealing with the crappy, late entry on Friday, and why even that entry should have been sooner based on S/R. ANY AND ALL comments are welcome in obtaining a better understanding!

1st Update: I wonder if momentum to the upside is falling off due to the LH we put in? I still just don't expect a rally on this Friday. 2nd Update: Note the comments on the hinge there. BTW, sucks we can't edit posts after 60 mins. Final: Out!!

Right edge read. It's Friday, after lunch so this worries me. I doubt there will be any movement beyond this range?

As I see it, whatever works for you. Wether it's Brooks completely, or if you just take what you like from that collection of work. Probably really no need to label everything either, just a good exercise if you're just sitting there, might as well. As for TL to reverse a range, I don't think so. You just want to find small bars at the top or bottom of a range. It wouldn't make sense to enter a long bar that would put your entry at the middle of the range. It would require too big a stop and you might not even make it to the other side. 1st and 2nd entries in the range, I've seen examples of both in the book. This part is a bit ambiguous.....First entries with a good reversal bar are fine, a second entry is even better.

There was the good breakout trade at the open that was a good short. And I've noticed that the first reversal bar in the a.m. is usually good for at least a scalp which it was.

As you know the '5tic' chart is based on the NUMBER of trades taken place within a given bar. So a new bar prints every 5 trades. A range or breakout bar is based on the number of tics price moves, so it's a function of distance, and not time/trades/contracts. It prints a new bar when price moves 5 tics in direction. If you plot it, you'll notice each bar is exactly 5 tics long. Hence the gaps when price is moving really fast. It's supposed to make it obvious when price is range bound I guess? I only saw this on Thales charts and it seemed like a good idea, I'm still trying to find what is comfortable for me that's all. Slippage, I dunno, hopefully someone can answer this. I'm trading it cause I feel more comfortable trading multiples in NQ than I do ES.