forrestang

Here's an update. I was able to update the G/J to a stop better than BE above a recent swing high. Came within a few ticks of the 2nd target. The G/U is not moving with the expediency I would like to see, but finally started moving slightly. I have adjusted the stop to at least a reasonable point should it become a loser. -------EDIT------ 19:09CST _ New picture posted The red lines are just me moving my stop on my charts so I don't have to keep recreating the lines in Snagit. G/J hit the second target! G/U finally got some good movement on it. Adjusting stop down to 1.5932.

G/J trade broke out well. Half off at first green line for a few more than 30Pips, other half stop at BE. G/U initiated but it is dragging ass and sitting at entry.

Do you usually stand aside during such times?

I usually don't watch currencies in the day. But what do you fine gentlemen think about these two scenarios? Blue line is the breakdown through support for the short. Green line is the first anticipated area where price would find support. And notice on a macro level, each High circled w/the red dot is right at about the 50% retracement from the major swing High to Low. ------EDIT-------- I just noticed after posting, G/J might have some support sooner than the line I posted. It's slightly to the left, that little wedge that we based an entry the other day off of.

Wow, something weird going on with the E/U pair, but target was hit!!

I've got that with a different initial target, along with a E/U short if it goes off. R:R on both as i have them aren't great.

I am being captain obvious here, but make sure you post questions you have relevant to this thread often. This thread gets hundreds upon hundreds of views per day, but fewer posts and questions. I think your questions that gets answers help us all. This thread is one of the few gems out there, maybe one day it will die as they all eventually do, and then people will be thinking they either wished they were around when it was live, or wished they had taken more advantage of it.

Needs pictures.................

I took this trade also, my targets weren't as ambitious as yours. I also snagged a quickie on the G/J in the pic, but it was also a smaller target. I have a question. You'll notice the price action I'm highlighting on the charts. And this occurred more or less on the 4 pairs on my screen. The time to enter was shown via the green arrow. This action I have pretty much committed to memory and is usually 'money in the bank.' Probably goes by many names, but the point is that it occurs as price runs towards resistance, with a continuing series of HLs prior to the B.O. You'll notice the two pairs at the top broke out of this price action, but then more or less immediately failed. The two pairs on the bottom broke out and broke out well. So here is a question for Thales, OR ANYONE ELSE THAT MAY HAVE AN IDEA. This is of course in hindsight, so go crazy with ideas. My question is, does anyone spy a reason that might preclude one from taking the trades at the top, but being interested in the ones at the bottom?

Which entry point were you referring to, see the attached chart. I am guessing you meant an entry at point 1. What was it that makes this a special pattern? I guess I'm just wondering what you meant by paying special attention to this particular pattern? Was it that price had previously broken above of a resistance level, then crashing down and developing the 2B? That it happened AFTER a breakout and fell to a somewhat prominent support level shown by the blue dotted line? Funny you ask that. I remember you saying a long time ago that FXCM had changed something and your daughter being upset about it. I tried the demo platform and just couldn't get used to trading with it. I can understand one's frustration. So I went with and am using the live MB platform, I wonder if I can split a mini lot in half? Seldom do I take a trade with the first PO being 100pips away, so splitting that as you mentioned would have made sense. My entr was 142.80. I see your idea of where I could have taken the first PO. It makes sense.

Posting my losses after the fact I think can be more useful than the winners, the winners are the same thing over and over and look boring. This particular trade was easy to sit through IMO. Mainly because before I went to bed, I was able to get my stop to right at BE, so in my head it was a free trade! I wound up loosing about 2PIPs on the trade because of the spread. For a split second, after being in the trade, I realized I was up about 60pips, and thought about closing it, but left it alone. I was chatting with a friend last night who told me to cash it in, he doesn't look for that much a move. He later boasted about how I could have had 60pips instead of a BE trade. I told him that he would have never sat through long enough to get up to 60 in the first place. I've noticed that with the trades I take, I have moved my initial target in, only to see that it usually gets hit later. So I'm done with that for the most part. Maybe if I had two lots on, I would have cashed one in? About holding for a while? How did that trade you hit the other day that netted you 80 Pips make you feel? That had to be better than killing a trade early to grab 6pips when it went on for another 40-50 right?

Thanks for the comments! It was a pretty low risk trade after the first swing low printed allowing the movement of the nat stop. This pattern you speak of is basically a 2B correct? But do you want it to appear in the exact scenario that it happened to me? Where price has broken resistance for example and headed up, then falls out of nowhere, then creates the 2B? I am sorry about that. You aren't the first to suggest that. I have strayed away from white charts as I thought the contrast was giving me headaches(I dont think that was the case). In my MT4 I have all white. And right after I posted that chart today, I created a white template. I'll be sure to post them in white for easier viewing.

Don't you hate it when this happens?

Breakouts have freaked me out for a while too. Watching for the breakout, is the entry placed prior the breakout, or is one waiting for a confirmation via volume to show interest in the move down?

No worries, that probably wasn't the best example or the clearest example. I will repost with something that makes more sense the next time I see it.

Thales, Two quick questions: 1.) In the picture below, would you say that this is too loose to fit the criteria I quoted in the first quote, for price drawing a line in the sand if you will? I was just trying to find an example, not the best example. Would a long at either the 1st or 2nd green arrow make sense based on the quote above? 2.) I've been more so doing the thing mentioned in the 2nd quote more often than not. Is there a way you go about picking which way you plan to trade, i.e. shorting the breakdown that picked a figure or playing the continuation? In this second picture below, it may not be the best example but I am trying to find something real time. Would you say that price has somewhat drawn a line in the sand to the downside along with that swing high to the far right from which I have drawn the red line. And either a BO above the green line at top or down the green line bottom make sense? Again, this isn't the best example but looking for something showing the general 'swings' and how it might relate to reasonable direction.

Must be something in the air, I took a loss yesterday as well. Mine is worse as I didn't get a chance to adjust the stop to above the latest reaction high as the trade triggered AFTER I left my PC for the night. Details in the picture.

Discretionary trading will never go away IMO. Algos do work though, but then they still have to be managed, via DD and when to pull them offline and replace.... so that is discretionary in itself.

There was pretty much a breakout on all currencies a short time after the market opened :helloooo:

Second extension hit earlier this morning as shown by the black arrow. This was alsoo were price stopped coincidentally before retracing and continuing down, so this was a good piece of support here.

I was responding to your last post, but I think I can convey my thouhgts based on your recent post. And this is just the way I see it, I'm still getting a handle on things myself. If anyone has better ideas please post. Brown, When I look for the testing to occur, I am wanting to see actual swings, that encompass several bars. Not a 5min bar occuring at 8:30 for example(depending on what bar interval you're using), and the next bar occuring at 8:35 that matches the 8:30 bar. I want to give it time to develop, so you've got plenty of time to watch the test develop. What I'm saying(for a long) is that i want to see a swing high, followed by a down retracement, followed by another swing high, followed by a retracement, THEN get ready to enter the Breakout. I have attached a chart showing this and some commentary, the chart of mine you posted with a wider tf. So someone asked me yesterday with the GU short i took why I didn't get long. To me, I was worried about the possible resistance overhead. Which wasn't super solid, but to me it pushed me away. Also what I said earlier to this quote below was that if you look to the left, you'll likely see some resistance overhead, or support below where your entry might be that would make you aprehensive about taking the trade. I have attached a chart showign this and some commentary.

Most yes. I could be wrong, but it seems like some trades don't meet the 'strict' criteria of the 2tests (unless you are looking on a smaller time frame than the one posted), but I figured that was just because you can tell when a breakout is going to be particularly useful since you've been doing it for a while? Like THIS one. Now I wouldn't have shorted at this point. Or HERE is another one I asked you about before, because I could see why you would enter before you explained it. And while they were indeed breakouts, I would say they don't fit the necessary criteria to give a newb like me the confidence to jump in. Sometimes I do see what seems to be a good area to trade the BreakOut w/o meeting my criteria, and more times than not they work out, but I also get faked out quite a bit. Eventually I think it will become more obvious. Does what I'm saying make sense?

I didn't catch this one, a lot of new tv shows were on tonight, damn Fringe. But the G/U seems to offer something every night. First picture is the micro look, second is the macro in what seems to be obvious levels of support.

I took the first and the 2nd trade today myself in the ES. The trade you asked about as to why not a trade, IMO it doesn't look right. I've been doing the 2Test type entry Thales described for a while now. On the one you listed, it seems like there wasn't 2 tests. When I look for the 2tests, I want to see an actual retracement off of the high at least some degree before the actual B.O. A lot of Thales' trades don't fit that criteria and are other types of entries. ALL my trades (and ALL the ones I've posted here) have an entry with the 2 Tests occuring prior to my entry. This means I watch a WHOLE lot of trades go on w/o me(a lot of which look good otherwise), but I figured I'd focus on only one setup for now.

I say this knowing obviously anything could happen, but if you look to the left of these 4 tests occuring about the time of your post, what did you see that would make you a little aprehensive about any BO that might be occuring, in that direction? At least that was my interpretation.