forrestang

Let's see if the G/J declines ugly like or if it will yield a nice breakout.

If I'd had known this thread was here, hehe. Here's a slight breakout I traded in ES just now. Conservative target was there. 2nd green would have been better, but oh well. ---EDIT---- 2ND picture is the resistance area that price broke through.

Yes, thank you for the correction.

BF, Actually, both of those charts where showing the same thing. One is a 15min chart, the other chart is the 4Hour chart. What I was showing was that price had just come from big picture resistance on the 4 hour chart(2nd chart), and the actual entry was in the 1st chart(the 15min) down through that SUPPORT level that was culminating in that downside wedge..... where price was making LHs into a relatively flat bottom. I was just showing that 4hr chart for some context in the overall big picture of what was going on, and why it might be reasonable to expect some downside continuation. But...... with your point in the long you said you would have taken, here is a picture of how price was breaking through some resistance. This is how I see that one on the 15 min chart.

Here the G/J from friday still had that nice little pattern, making one think BO and it had quite a nice one to the downside. I didn't trade this but just more info nonetheless. Attached are big picture views and the entry chart.

Awesome Chart and observation for this thread! I agree w/BrownsFan, if I were looking at this big picture like you posted, my bias would be either way. And it seems like an obvious way to expect the current trend to happen. It will either reverse or breakout, nonetheless the future big picture resolutions seems clear.

I dont have any statistics of course, but my 'intuition' seems like its usually right the overwhelming majority of the time. Anyone ever see a trade that doesn't' seem to be one of the typical obvious trades you take? Sometimes I see trades and I don't know for what reason I see it that way? It must be something subconscious I have seen before, as sometimes they don't fit some nice neat price pattern you've learned to recognize over time. Putting this into something useful and something that generates fabulous returns is a different story of course.

At what point do you decide when to not let a trade turn into any type of lose? I think that is something that I haven't given as much thought to as much as other things.

Not trading either of these, and have not investigating to see if these would be meaningful breakouts based on big picture S/R, as I usually dont FX in the day time. But here are two more examples of the PA. Didn't check to see if the BOs would be meaningful though, or if R:R makes sense, or if there is room to move to a profit target.

Disclaimer: I hope this doesn't come off as me thinking I am a "know it all" as that is not my intention. I suck too! My from one newb to another(I'm learning too) The title of your post is appropriate for my thoughts. This is a big deal that you post it. I've said it before, nobody wants to be wrong, especially being wrong in front of a whole room full of people. Which is why it's probably hard to post real time trades for some(which is completely understandable). From the minute you post the trade before it triggers, you're opening yourself up to the possibility of not just being wrong, but everyone else seeing that you are wrong. IMO, posting some of our real time trades might be a way not only to get feedback and learn from each other, but also a sign that we understand losses are inevitable, we don't know what is going to happen next, and mainly ACCEPTING the idea that losses WILL happen. So I say all that to say just that you posted this, and especially that you post trades before they trigger from time to time is probably a sign that you will eventually be a winner because you are in some way accepting the things that come with trading I see cutting your profits too soon isn't on this list, did you forget it, or have you worked it out(congrats if you did)? I'm sure most of your problems are mental ones. You know this, in speaking w/you outside of TL, you even seem to know what all your problems are. Some stuff from Douglas's Book, plus my comments(in sub bullets) and how they may apply to you:

TARGET HIT!!!! Here is the final update on the G/J. I was more active in this trade than usual, as I let a lot of really winning trades turn into not so winning trades. As suggested I moved half of my position into a quicker stop to get some profit, although I didn't pull it at the best point. Not a bad average though, about 70Pips per lot I traded. This was one of the trades I think the proper BO point was identified, as this thing rallied 60 pips within a half hour of breaking the level. When the BO is nailed like this, I think I would like to take out some as soon as that initial wave of momentum dies when the move out is so strong like last night. I didn't want to let it roll on me, so I took my first half out kinda early. I also adjusted my P2, you can see why on the second chart I attached. But 2nd Target hit so I'm happy. Also you can kind of see that price pattern we discussed yesterday when price enters into a bit of a range, shown on first chart. QUESTION: Has anyone come up with a hard fast way to take profits? I'd be interested in hearing ideas. My thoughts are basically for trading 2 lots. Which is pretty much been, hold solid on Initial Stop till P1 is hit, then move 2nd half to BE after P1 is hit. And both stops are adjusted just beyond swing points as they develop. I'm also figuring out how to add common sense in the mix as Thales suggested, like not letting a trade that moves 40-50 pips in your favor turn into any type of loss, which is something I've done many times. Forrest

Stop now below swing low, so no more risk involved. Will do final update after trade is closed to avoid too many posts

So to be clear, u're saying that you may have EXITED after the entry? As the entry occurred before 1082. Here is the picture again:

Take a look at this G/J trade I am in. It's up 49 pips from the entry so far, about 35 pips from the first target(if anyone took this trade I reduced the first target by a few pips). Would you be sure that this trade is no worse than BE as well? BTW... this was a "Forrest BO Range" Trade.

------------------------:rofl:

I'm looking at the G/J now, and I'm showing on a 1hr to show where I got these levels from. Price is butting itself up against some resistance now. But there is still that swing high slightly above that I find annoying. I would really like to see at least one more rejection of that 152 level(blue) before the BO. Also the red line where my ISL would be just happens to be the 50% retracement from that big major swing high, shown by the double headed arrow. So the potential for a reversal is there IMO. Opinions?

Stop at BE. --------EDIT---------- Out at Profit Target!!! I got a crappy fill 2 tics beyond my order which should have been 81.00 Exit at what seemed to be resistance at 86. Looks like it's going higher though.

Cool chart!! Something I've found interesting when in a channel like that, for indication into which way it may break is a series of HLs or LHs. For example, if it's going to break to the downside, I think if it starts to display a series of LHs into the Support, while the bottom remains relatively flat is a good trade to the downside. This is just one factor to look at of course, but an observation nonetheless. See the picture of breakage to the downside.

Here are a few questions about the ES for Thales or anyone who has an opinion. Question1: The gap today was minimal to non-existant. Does this usually invalidate the type of trading you like to do on the ES? If the gap is filled, do you take trades in the direction of the fill, or opposite, just more explanation on that please? For this next two questions, please see the chart. The left is a 24 hour 15 min for some type of larger view and context. Question2: As shown on the pic at point 1, there was really no big picture context at that level, but there where two tests to speak of. Is this a trade you would be interested in? Question3: As shown on the pic at point 2, there is a bit of bigger picture context in that the level was tested 3 times, and also is the RTH high. Does this seem like a trade that makes sense in terms of ES trading? Also do the green targets above make sense? Or would you say this breakout point is a bad location due to the various overhead resistance points?

Ooops, my bad :crap: A T.O. is a "TimeOut"..... I put myself on a T.O. because I made that execution error the other day where instead of placing my stop at B.E. the other day, I put it 100 pips higher as I obviously wasn't paying attention...... turning what I wanted to be a B.E. trade into a 100Pip loss! The two trades where the E/U and G/U. Stopped on E/U, so here is an updated picture of the still live G/U trade. I may have been expecting the B.O., and should have ACTUALLY played the B.O. which would have been higher entries, instead of trying to jump the gun to get aboard soon. Looks like I might eat two stops today... Like a wise man once said, "I would bet that 90%+ of all trades that were breakeven or losses that are blamed on "false breakouts" are nothing more than a trader trading a test to establish a level's importance, rather than the breakout from a level the significance of which has already been established." ------EDIT------ Yep two full stopouts. Crappy week for me thus far.

Here are my two trades I've got on tonight. I wanted to take the G/J too, but didn't take it because I didn't want to put on 3 trades after the T.O. I put myself on. Both trades are kinda iffy, not moving the way I want. Both are really close to resistance, and will need a real B.O., but if they do they should both provide some good 'liquidity' as Kiwi puts it in my direction. Both have quick targets though to possibly capture something. So this thing breaks or it doesn't. If not I think they are ok based on what I do. The targets are not visible as I can't get enough data on the charts, will update later if I am not stopped out.

I don't think your reasoning was bad. I think obviously yeah the trend was down, but in that scenario I would have been looking for the upside breakout myself as that would have been the easiest to spot, i.e., it's easy to see a S/R level when price is rejected multiple times. If you are going to play the reversal, what is your entry criteria going to be?

I second Dino's thoughts. I think the swing you pointed out was just a minor inflection on the scale Thales was viewing.

I had my worst loosing FX trade EVAAAAR last night. I entered short the G/J last night at 147.85. Target was 147.25. After entry it rallied unfomfortably high above my entry. No problem, just waiting for a pull back to adjust stop. I planned on moving stop to BE once it crossed my entry which it did as the trade wasn't working out. Was goign to get it at BE and head to sleep. Instead of setting my stop to 147.85, I set it to 148.85 like a retard. What a stupid error. Went all the way to my stop while I was sleep. Then I woke up late and missed my early am trade. So shitty day all round for me.

Now if you could just get rid of those MA's, we'd be in business:cool: