mikew

Yeah I suppose so, simulating for several months should be enough to give you a good idea. But is statistical samples the only way to determine if you have an edge? Suppose you simulate for 6 months and win consistently, and then you go live and the market changes and you no longer win. It seems to me the WHY behind the trades is where the true edge must be, but I'm having a hard time figuring it out..

How do you develop some basis for entry, that you can reliably determine has an edge? Certainly theres plenty of traders who have developed a basis for entry when two moving averages cross one another. But how can you be sure of what you're choosing actually DOES have a long-term edge?

The alternative is deflation and another Great Depression. Who wants that on their hands? Policy makers will continue to push the problem into the future

much prefer Rubinstein's interpretation

No, but I was looking into them

Yeah thanks, already started reading this. Really good

Good discussion, I'm definitely on the same page as you guys Yes, and these questions are very very difficult to answer for me. Are there people that can answer these? Is it even possible? Or is everyone in the markets just gambling? Playing the players seems infinitely harder in trading because you can never know who is on the other side of your trade. Instead of playing against one person, you are playing against the collective. exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?

Velocity Futures is a popular one

I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to say with your post.. but I have an idea because I can relate. Having been a successful poker player, I can pretty easily weed out the good advice from the bad. And let me tell you, 90% of poker advice is bad. 90% of poker instructional books are crap written by losing players who wouldn't stand a chance in a game with real professionals. And the people with the firmest opinions are usually in those 90%. I think trading is probably similar. So as I attempt to learn trading, I am constantly filtering through books, posts, and other material trying to find some solid ground to base a foundation on. So far, I've yet to find anything that I feel is really useful. Now, as you're saying, maybe I'm not 'ready' to understand some books and missing the point, but I don't think so. Ultimately I need to follow the path that I think and feel is appropriate. I haven't found that path yet in the markets. I just don't think many people have a clue (just as with poker). The closest thing that has grabbed my attn is dbphoenix's price/volume stuff spread across this site, t2w, and et. But even that doesn't fully satisfy me. I reckon most people are just gambling in the markets with no real edge. I don't want to waste my time doing that. I've spoken with one prop trader through email who I believe actually knows what he's doing, but the communication is sparse, i think because he doesn't want to give anything away. So despite my being a newbie in the markets, I feel fairly confident with my answers below. Some might, most probably don't. Like I mentioned above I think that I do, but its not because I'm special, but rather just because of my background in similar fields. Yes, but its unlikely the luck will last as things change. That is of course, unless they hit and run and get out before reality strikes. Usually this will be the case.

Hrm, ok so basically its one reported trade that goes through on the T&S. So a 500 tick chart would mean 500 trades per bar. Got it

I understand what a 5minute chart is and I understand what a constant volume bar chart is. I assume a tick chart is when each bar changes after the price ticks up or down a certain amount of times?

Thanks, I signed up for iqfeed demo and will also try Sierra Chart. I like that I can have MarketDelta functionality for 1/4 the price

So is DTN IQ Feed accurate or not? Seems like you contradict yourself..

Sounds great. What did those prop guys tell you? How did they open your eyes? What did they teach you that was different? I'm very interested in your reponse!

Forgive me, I'm new and just reading through Mind Over Markets now. I don't understand why you would want to construct a market profile graphic by using time (half hour periods) as the unit to determine where to place the letters. How does time hold any value? It seems that the bell curve is determined by the DURATION of time spent at a certain price. But why is that even relevant? It could have spent the most time at a certain price, but maybe not many contracts had traded there. It seems like its much more useful to use volume of price to construct the graphic instead of time. Sort of like what dbphoenix was showing here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dbphoenix/537-getting-down-cases.html Can someone clarify for me?

Hrmm, so in these cases, the broker is really nothing more than a sports betting bookie. But with bookies, at least you can compare the line you are getting with other outlets online or in vegas. When I open up yahoo and see EURUSD at 1.333, where are they getting this number if there is no central exchange? Could I look at two retail brokers at the same time and see different prices quoted? This does seem strange and I probably will stay away from forex..

Could you elaborate on this? I don't really understand what you're saying..

Ironically I did find one that seems similar. Is the last word/sentence in your above post a hint?

Does what you say apply only to futures markets? What about stocks or forex?

I hope not. I'm of the opinion that its absolutely ridiculous to ever delete any posts unless something very offensive and disruptive is going on, and even then its not a sure thing. Trying to go through some of dbphoenix's posts on t2w is an absolute nightmare when post #s are referenced and no longer match up because of deleted posts.

This is an old quote but maybe someone can answer So, when trading the ES for example, should someone be looking at the S&P index chart instead of the ES chart when analyzing price and volume?

Ok, back at it again. I'm having trouble because I read something from the course, and I try to understand it. But when I try to see the flaws in the contrasting, devil's advocate position, I can't find them. Usually, both what Wyckoff says and the opposite of what he says both make sense. From chapter 14M, page 7 (corresponding chart from 7M Jan 16-19th is attached to this post) Now what I want to discuss is the quote above. Wyckoff is saying that at the end of the attached chart, the small volume on the pullback indicates that selling pressure has dried up. I would then conclude that such a lack of selling pressure is a bullish sign, perhaps a time to take a long position. However, when I play devil's advocate, it seems just as logical (to me) to say that the low volume on the pullback indicates that there is a lack of BUYING pressure. The fact that the price can drop on low volume means that there is no buyers preventing the drop. If there were buying pressure, then the price would not pull back, but rather it would be supported. So since the price can drop like that with no support stopping it, that would indicate a bearish future. Does that make any sense? Where am I going wrong?

But then the FED comes out and essentially says that the dollar will continue to be crushed, so so much for that

Thanks, I'm interpreting that chart as a breakdown of a trading range on higher volume, meaning that we can expect to go lower, as opposed to the selling climax previously discussed. This doesn't look like a selling climax to me, because, well, there hasn't really been an established downtrend to reach a 'climax'

Hi, its been a while, I've kinda put this off, but just started reading again. This is from Section 14M, page 8: Why wouldn't the price drop induce people to buy, when they see the lower prices as a bargain? How does this increase in volume differ from that of a selling climax? In both cases the price drops lower on large volume. But in a selling climax the recommendation is to go long. Where as in the paragraph above, it seems that Wyckoff is suggesting that prices will continue lower..